Thread by @nicktolhurst

++BREAKING++

Farage does deal with Conservatives. Brexit party will not stand against a single one of the 317 MPs in Conservative held seats. But will concentrate on going after Labour.

If there’s no remain alliance then the remain cause is finished. That’s it.

2/

It’s clear now what UK faces.
The hard right are now in a pact with the far right. Both supported by Russia & Trump.

Remainers need to stop wanging on about “yellow Tories”, Chuka Umana or Corbyn & work together. If not they’ll have enabled this.

We’ve got 4 weeks.

3/

I’m a LibDem. But if voting for a momentum sponsored Labour candidate stops this madness I’ll do it.

If you’re “too fine” to vote Labour or LibDem to stop this far right pact then quite frankly you deserve everything that’s coming to you if we lose.

4/

So I’ve had 2 hours to process the Farage decision - yes it is good news for Johnson. But there is some good news for a Remain in there too...if we know how to use it...

5/

Brexit party was always the biggest danger to the Tories in marginal constituencies. Tory MPs in marginal seats will breathe easier now. But Labour/LibDem MPs in marginals may in some cases still benefit from BP standing.

And there’s a specific constituency type that will...

6/

Logically, Brexit party standing helps remain the most where the Leave vote is significantly more heavily concentrated with Conservative voters.

In other words where Labour voters are the most remai...the Brexit party takes a higher share of the votes away from the Tories...

7/

This is where it gets interesting. We know much of SE + London where Labour voters most remain & so a Brexit party standing in Labour marginals helps Labour.

So prediction - marginal seats like Canterbury with a Brexit candidate will return a labour MP even if vote declines.

8/

Constituencies like LibDem’s Stephen Lloyd in Eastbourne will almost certainly be safe now BP standing in...

Had BP stood down a real chance Tieies would get back in but what about Tory marginals..?

9/

Clearly many Tory held marginals will be harder to win back now BP standing down. So what should the strategy be?
In Remain seats association with Farage may, just may, concentrate the minds of swing Remain voters. If this built upon by tactical voting these seats can be won.

10/

Now you can see where this going..

BP standing in marginal Labour Leave seats with high number of Labour Leavers will likely cost Labour MPs...but the reverse is also true. BP in southern Remain seats firms up remain parties & splits Brexit vote.

In other words....

11/

Brexit party standing will help LibDems & Labour to retain (mostly southern) Remain seats at the cost of some Labour losses of likely northern/midland Leave seats.

12/

The Brexit party standing is a gift to the SNP even if, indeed because, the Brexit party in Scotland polls so badly.

BP will take a few votes of Tories & Farage is the one Englishman even less popular than Johnson. The odds on SNP getting 50+ MPs just got shorter.

13/

But we can’t 100% rely on SNP gaining more seats than Tories will win off Labour in a north & Midlands...so where is a progressive/Remain coalition coming from..

There’s only one place left now...

14/

Only place left to go now are Remain majority Tory held seats.
These are the key.

There are enough of these to outweigh Labour losses of Leave seats.
So we are right back to where we started.
Only a remain alliance delivering Remain MPs to remain seats can beat Johnson now.