++Calling all South West based Labour voters++
Crunching the data it’s increasingly clear, contrary to the media narrative, the South West of England will be the determining region in this election.
& that Labour remainers the most critical demographic in the region.
A thread.
Crunching the data it’s increasingly clear, contrary to the media narrative, the South West of England will be the determining region in this election.
& that Labour remainers the most critical demographic in the region.
A thread.
2/
1st some context:
SNP will gain Tory seats. LibDems look set to gain some SE & London seat from Tories but in order to ensure Johnson doesn’t get a majority more gains from Tories are needed.
Why is the South West England so important?
1st some context:
SNP will gain Tory seats. LibDems look set to gain some SE & London seat from Tories but in order to ensure Johnson doesn’t get a majority more gains from Tories are needed.
Why is the South West England so important?
3/
It’s simple.
12 of the LibDems most achievable target seats are in Conservative held SW seats where Labour have for the most part never had an MP or have a chance there.
It’s simple.
12 of the LibDems most achievable target seats are in Conservative held SW seats where Labour have for the most part never had an MP or have a chance there.
4/
Take the ST IVES constituency.
Tory MP with 22 120 votes - a majority of a mere 312 over LibDems - Labour are way behind with 7 298 votes.
A swing of just 5% of Labour voters to LibDems should be enough to deprive Boris Johnson of an MP.
Take the ST IVES constituency.
Tory MP with 22 120 votes - a majority of a mere 312 over LibDems - Labour are way behind with 7 298 votes.
A swing of just 5% of Labour voters to LibDems should be enough to deprive Boris Johnson of an MP.
5/
Here is the list of SW LibDem/Con marginals:
St Ives
Cheltenham
Devon North
Wells
Cornwall North
Thornbury & Yate
Yeovil
Taunton Deane
Torbay
Chippenham
Dorset Mid & Poole
Dorset West
These 12 seats are mostly marginal with zero chance or even history of Labour MPs.
Here is the list of SW LibDem/Con marginals:
St Ives
Cheltenham
Devon North
Wells
Cornwall North
Thornbury & Yate
Yeovil
Taunton Deane
Torbay
Chippenham
Dorset Mid & Poole
Dorset West
These 12 seats are mostly marginal with zero chance or even history of Labour MPs.
6/
But here’s the key:
There are South West England seats where Labour are the dominant 2nd party behind the Conservatives.
Now you can see where this going...
If Labour and LibDems organise & communicate not nationally but locally the South West will decide the election.
But here’s the key:
There are South West England seats where Labour are the dominant 2nd party behind the Conservatives.
Now you can see where this going...
If Labour and LibDems organise & communicate not nationally but locally the South West will decide the election.
7/
What type of seats could LibDems help Labour with in South West England?
The major one would be Camborne & Redruth.
If just 1 600 LibDems and/or Greens switch to Labour then Labour could gain the seat from the Tories.
What type of seats could LibDems help Labour with in South West England?
The major one would be Camborne & Redruth.
If just 1 600 LibDems and/or Greens switch to Labour then Labour could gain the seat from the Tories.
8/
SW England Lab/Con marginals:
Camborne
Plymouth Moor View
Bournemouth East
Bournemouth West
South Swindon
Filton & Bradley Stoke
North Swindon
SW England Lab/Con marginals:
Camborne
Plymouth Moor View
Bournemouth East
Bournemouth West
South Swindon
Filton & Bradley Stoke
North Swindon
9/
Despite the current obsession with “Northern Leave seats” the single, largely ignored by the media, region of the South West of England could well decide the election but only if LibDem & Labour voters work together & communicate.
It’s in our hands.
/Ends
Despite the current obsession with “Northern Leave seats” the single, largely ignored by the media, region of the South West of England could well decide the election but only if LibDem & Labour voters work together & communicate.
It’s in our hands.
/Ends
