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At the risk of repeating myself... the opposition parties are messing up this General Election. They will hand PM Johnson a 5-year mandate. Seen through a Brexit lens, things are very straightforward. But the opposition has simply failed to meet the GE challenge. Thread. 1/
The reason we are having a GE, is because PM Johnson either could not, or would not try to, get his Brexit deal through the last Parliament. He feared the scrutiny the WA and WAB would receive in Parliament. 2/
The opposition agreed that time was needed for proper scrutiny; and were able, via the Benn Act and the Letwin Amendment to stall PM Johnson's plans. But they were not able to agree on a GNU, or on a path towards a Brexit resolution. 3/
So... they (with some reluctance) agreed to the GE which I have argued (see pinned tweet) Johnson has long craved. The GE stakes could not be higher. Johnson is seeking a 5-year mandate. If he wins a majority, he will dispense with close HoC scrutiny. 4/
PM Johnson has managed to unite the Conservative Party. He has seen the Brexit Party 'threat' dwindle. His core message - that he will get Brexit done - resonates with many who are exasperated by the Brexit process. 5/
Of course, he will not get Brexit done. If the UK leaves the EU in January 2020, it will immediately face the challenge of negotiating a future relationship deal with the EU. This account by @tconnellyRTE is essential reading: 6/
The opposition has not adjusted to the GE challenge. Many of them would have preferred a PV to settle Brexit; pointing out that a GE will be about more than just Brexit, and to the failings of FPTP (allowing Johnson can win a majority with less than 40% of the vote). 7/
They seem to be ignoring the fact that... we are where we are (and we are here in part because the failure of the opposition in the last Parliament to work together more effectively). 8/
The Conservative Party and the Brexit Party have shown signs that they will (in some seats at least) work together. The fewer leave candidates there are in a constituency, the easier it is likely to be for a leave candidate to win. 9/
It is all too obvious that the same holds true on the remain side. And yet, the opposition parties do not appear to see it. They are jostling for position, focusing much of their fire on each other. They are making it easier for PM Johnson to win. 10/
I can fully understand (and I have seen all too much evidence of this on twitter) that there is little trust between the opposition parties. The LDs are 'yellow Tories'. Labour are 'not a party of remain'. Etc etc. The differences between them are profound. 11/
And yet... the only way to stop Johnson involves minimising the amount of seats which he is able to win. It is inconceivable (even in 2019) that any of the opposition parties can win an outright majority. 12/
If that's right, stopping Johnson will depend on preventing him getting a majority, and will then rely on cooperation between the opposition parties in the post-GE HoC. 13/
So... the attacks on one another have to stop. The focus should be on the dangers of an 'unconstrained' PM Johnson, and his destructive Brexit deal. And they should show more willingness to work together to counter Johnson more effectively. 14/14
And... if the parties won't cooperate, voters will need to. The disputes about tactical voting are well known. This is an excellent addition by @jonworth (albeit, disconcertingly, not a high-tech flow chart...).
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