$TSLAQ - one more. Accrual manipulation does not equate to fundamental cash flows. It's impact on the cash position is generally negative but really hard to distinguish with their at best opaque Q and K's. BUT, we do know this: (1/3)
They disclosed $2b of CMLTD for 2020 in Q3. Construction in progress (Shanghai) actually decreased from 12/31 from $807m to $700m at Q3. Estimates are closer to $2b in costs for the building and equipment which are no where on the balance sheet. (2/3)
Say all of CIP goes to China. Leaves at LEAST $1.3B + $2B CMLTD = $3.3B. Plus startup costs? Q1 and Q2 2018 of the ramp burned $1B in operating activities. $4.3B total. Unrestricted cash of $5.4B at Q3. It's still about cash. (3/3)
