1/ As a marketer, I learned that the complex environment does not allow for us to PREDICT HITS. It is not a lack of data that causes failure. It is complexity itself that does not yield to predicting.
2/ This leaves one in a conundrum. In the US, 30,000 NEW PRODUCTS were brought to market in 2018. 95% failed. (Clayton Christensen stat) This failure rate comports with our tests since we test 500 new products a year and 1 in 20 are *hits*
3/ With a failure rate of 95%, what is the most sane response? Spend more money on prediction? Imbeciles do that. Hope 1 in 20 is convex enough to cover fail rate? Well, sort of. Our M.O has been to crush down the cost of failure- actually to break even or better even on failures
4/ One still requires convex returns on hits to cover failure rates. Movie studios have not learned the lessons of low cost of failure. Original movie moguls did. They came from NY garment district and knew business.
5/ Silicon Valley and Hollywood have distorted business economics. These folks concentrate on convex right tails but have not clipped their left tail risk.
6/ Even Consumer Package Goods companies with grocery chains in their pockets and monumental budgets fail 80% of the time with new products. These have undergone rigorous focus groups, surveys, consultants, etc. They fail miserably.
7/ When the failure rate became obnoxious, I moved from being a salesman/marketer to creating media at near zero marginal costs in order to test products at break even or better.
8/ The same complex environment has severe repercussions for Elites selling various narratives. Think of how the Epstein narrative hasn't taken hold. This is like a failed product from P&G. With all the data the deep state collects & access 2 every major network, they are failing
9/ In fact, the difficulty in predicting events means it is difficult for Elites to manufacture lasting myths today because the failure rate is on par with 95% products failing.
10/ Elites do have unlimited resources, but if the dog does not like the dog food, no amount of money will cure that problem. The Elite's resources cannot cram the Epstein suicide product (idea) down our throats.
11/ The Deep State does not have 500 new products to sell every year. They have a few and they need those to be "hits" and throw ENORMOUS RESOURCES at the product. Propaganda in a complex environment is more difficult and the more complex, the more difficult.
12/ It may seem odd to tell you that selling soap or selling the Epstein Suicide story or Iraqi WMDs use the same techniques. But they are becoming less and less effective BECAUSE of complexity.
13/ But Bernays knew the techniques were the same and moved from selling WW 1 to selling cigarettes to women.
