Thread by @SamuelMarrache

SHORT THREAD ON LABOUR/LIB DEM PACT #TacticalVoting

@jeremycorbyn has consistently said that this country needs a Labour Gov and that it may be “our last chance” to stop a Tory #Brexit. @joswinson has also campaigned heavily against a Tory majority and stopping Brexit 1/17

The @YouGov MRP poll however, found that the Tories are expected to obtain a majority of 68 MPs. However, many of those seats are predicted to remain/go Tory by a small margin and if Corbyn & Swinson are truly determined to prevent a Tory government, it isn’t too late....yet 2/17

If a tactical voting pact is activated in these marginal seats, a Tory majority would be stopped. I’ll analyse some seats where it is looking increasingly likely that unless a tactical vote pact (or widespread tactical voting) is agreed, then they may be lost to the Tories. 3/17

WORKINGTON

With the Tories on 41% and Labour at 40%, Jo Swinson could get their candidate Neil Hughes, currently polling at 6%, to publicly announce that Lib Dem voters should instead vote for @SueHayman1 who’s voted for a @peoplesvote_uk before. 4/17

SOUTHPORT

Is another key example of a split leading to a Tory MP. Currently Conservatives are at 46%, Labour 31% and Lib Dems 23%. If the Lib Dems would encourage Labour voting here, it may be enough to get @LizSavagelabour over the line. 5/17

ST IVES

Down South in St Ives, the Tories are at 46%, Lib Dems 40% and Labour 10%. The obvious implication of Labour standing here is that they may be facilitating the re-election of a Tory MP. Supporting the Lib Dems here could provide the 7% needed to change that 6/17

GUILDFORD

Guildford is another great example of Labour standing no chance of being elected but being in a position to help the Lib Dems. Here the Tories are on 44%, Lib Dems at 39% and Labour at 9%. Actively supporting at @ZoeFranklinLD however, could turn that around 7/17

CHELTENHAM

Perhaps one of the closest seats, with the Tories on 45%, Lib Dems on 45% and Labour at 8%. Clearly there is no chance of a Labour MP here, yet there is a real possibility of a Tory re-election unless Labour voters support the Lib Dems’ @mpmwilko 8/17

WARWICK AND LEAMINGTON

Tories 42%, Labour 39% and Lib Dems 12%. It goes without saying that Lib Dem endorsement for @MattWestern_ here could provide him with at least the 4% needed to be re-elected. 9/17

LEIGH

Similarly, Leigh has the Tories at 40%, Labour 39% and the Lib Dems at 7%. With a tiny chance of electing a Lib Dem MP, it begs to question why they don’t support Labour’s @JoPlattMP who would vote in line with her party’s manifesto for a new referendum. 10/17

ESHER AND WALTON

One of the most spoken about seats in this election. YouGov currently have Tories and Raab on 49%, the Lib Dems’ @monicabeharding on 38% and Labour on 11%. Tactical voting/pact could provide the swing needed to oust Raab and elect a Lib Dem 11/17

CITIES OF LONDON & WESTMINSTER AND KENSINGTON

CL&W: Tories 40%, Labour 28% and Lib Dems 27%.
KENSINGTON: Tories 37%, Lib Dems 29%, Labour 26%.

These two could be negotiated and split between the two parties. If not it looks like the Tories could win both by division. 12/17

There are numerous other constituencies - Putney, Winchester, Milton Keynes, D&R, Vale of Clwyd (and others in Wales), Stoke-on-Trent Central, Cheadle, Bury South, Bury North & seats Labour are slightly ahead in e.g. Sedgefield or Canterbury with @RosieDuffield1 . 13/17

The overall message is clear. If @UKLabour & @LibDems truly believe that stopping a Tory majority is the top priority, there seems to only be one way of doing so and that is to urge their voters in constituencies they don’t stand a chance of winning in, to support the other 14/17

If they don’t do so, and a Tory majority and Brexit occurs, ppl will look back at this and question why such a golden opportunity was missed. With both parties &/or their voters co-operating, that majority can be stopped and a People’s Vote held in 2020 15/17

If this thread does nothing to point out the need for the two parties to openly support each other, it should at least demonstrate how crucial #TacticalVoting for marginal constituencies in this election is. It could be the last chance for this country to prevent #Brexit 16/17

Even without an official Labour/Lib Dem pact it is still possible, as many like @thatginamiller @acgrayling and @campbellclaret have recently urged, to prevent a Tory majority via tactical voting in those constituencies above. However, the word needs to spread fast #GE2019 17/17