Thread by @EmmaLGraney

Moody’s credit downgrade of Alberta today makes for some interesting reading. In a statement Toes basically blames NDP and pipelines — hey, that’s politics — but let’s take a look at some factors Moody’s cites as the reason it downgraded Alberta to Aa2... #ableg #cdnpoli

First up, Moody’s points to the “structural weakness” inherent in Alberta’s economy being overly reliant on oil and gas. It’s too volatile, they say — and yeah, the lack of pipelines doesn’t help. Moody’s also says debt burden will be higher than forecast #ableg #cdnpoli /2

According to Moody’s, that’s compacted by high environmental risk (because oil, also floods & fires). It also took into account social considerations including a health spending being too high in Alberta — a critique that’s inline with Kenney’s argument #ableg #cdnpoli

Spending reductions seem to be positive from Moody’s, but it’s tempered by concerns over whether the UCP gvt has the discipline to continue with 3% a year. The downgrade is also due to revenue pressures thanks to the corporate tax cut and axing the carbon tax #ableg #cdnpoli /3

Another interesting tidbit in Moody’s Alberta credit downgrade is the role of the gvt’s move to dissolve the Alberta Capital Finance Authority. That means AFCA debt will be rolled into provincial debt, which throws everything into chaos (obvs a paraphrase) /4 #ableg #cdnpoli

Finally, we have Moody’s take on what would have to happen to change Alberta’s credit rating. Upgrade: return to balance faster, good energy news. Downgrade: faster debt, declining health of Crown corps. /5 #ableg #cdnpoli

If you want to know more about why Moody’s downgraded Alberta’s credit rating today (WHAT’S UP NERDS*) you can read the whole report here: m.moodys.com/research/Moody…

*yes I include myself in that designation /6

Finally, if you’re deep into the weeds on this and want an interesting comparison, here is the rationale for Moody’s last credit downgrade for Alberta. It was in March, under the NDP. alberta.ca/assets/documen… #ableg #cdnpoli

OH!! And if you read both reports you’ll notice this fits in with what Moody’s projected for Alberta’s economy: Weakening in 2019, pickup in 2020. If that comes true we might see a credit upgrade next year. But life is a mystery so who can say for sure ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ #ableg #cdnpoli

MY PHONE AUTO-CORRECTED MINISTER TOEWS’ NAME TO “TOES” MINISTER I AM SORRY I KNOW YOUR NAME I SWEAR #ableg