Thread by @raph789

Thread

Will Tigray leave or remain in #Ethiopia?

#TPLF's calculated moves so far could assist with predicting the likely future of #Tigray.

The current TPLF (since #Abiy came to power) had been carefully following procedures when it comes to dealing with the federal govt. 1/12

#TPLF had been releasing a number of statements/announcements, both written & verbal, which may seem pointless to the juvenile, naive and/or intentionally deaf ears but they're calculated & sensible than anyone could imagine. Every statements had some reasoning behind it. 2/12

#TPLF peacefully handed over power to #Abiy in the hope that he will execute #EPRDF’s future plans in line with the party member’s agreement. Unfortunately, Abiy had other sinister plans. Abiy & Co. fooled TPLF & managed to successfully undertake the #SoftCoup. 3/12

A few months after Abiy took power, #TPLF started to realise that they were betrayed by #Abiy & things were going to turn ugly both for TPLF & the people of #Tigray. Therefore, they had to regroup & start afresh in terms of to how to deal with the new leader in the block. 4/12

#TPLF's key strategy included following procedures & have things on records i.e. releasing a number of official announcements/statements. They were consistent & bold on expressing their unwavering stand. The key question is why? Well, here are two plausible scenarios: 5/12

1) #TPLF wants the federalism system not only to continue but to flourish further. TPLF wants to ensure that the sacrifices made by the people of #Tigray will not be flushed down the drains.

It's now apparent that TPLF doesn't want to be part of the #ProsperityParty. 6/12

#TPLF was/is trying hard to be part of the solution to the ongoing crisis in #Ethiopia by asking other federalists to form a coalition with them e.g. TPLF held the second grand conference in #Mekelle recently to discuss how to save the constitution & federalism in Ethiopia. 7/12

Therefore, if things go as planned, #TPLF will happily continue to be a formidable political party in #Ethiopia. If not, they will be forced to explore other options that will be acceptable by the people of #Tigray such as the second scenario, which is set out as follow. 8/12

2) #TPLF will make an announcement stating that they're pushed to a point where they're left with no choice but to trigger #Article39. It will likely be an easy manifesto for TPLF to convince the people of #Tigray that forming an independent Tigray will be a better option. 9/12

Considering the ongoing diabolical animosity displayed towards the people of #Tigray, even those #Tegaru|s who were against secession are now becoming strong advocates of the leave campaign. Therefore, it won't be surprising if the people unanimously vote for independence. 10/12

p.s. it is reasonable to think that #Abiy may actually support #TPLF’s decision to trigger #Article39 believing that it will be a massive relief for him to have TPLF & #Tigray out of the equation.

Abiy managed to interfere in every regions in #Ethiopia, except in Tigray. 11/12

#Abiy even tried to obliterate #TPLF & #Tigray a number of times in the past but failed miserably. He is now likely to feel that the people of Tigray are his real threats so the sooner they leave #Ethiopia the better for him to fulfil his ambition of becoming the 7th King. 12/12

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