Thread by @raph789

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My take on the latest saga relating to the #GERD, mainly focusing on the key element of the official joint statement of #Egypt, #Ethiopia, #Sudan, #US & #WorldBank which was released following the meeting held in the US on 6th of November 👇

The key word is "INVOKED" 1/9

#Egypt achieved its main goal by getting #Ethiopia to agree to invoke Article 10 of the 2015 Declaration of Principle should the ministers of the tripartite failed to reach an agreement by 15 January 2020. Ethiopia shouldn't have attended the meeting, let alone an agreement. 2/9

The fundamental question is: why is #Egypt now keen on invoking Article 10 of the 2015 Declaration? Why not in the past? It's been nearly five years since this Declaration

Let me start with the basics by identifying the critical item that would raise eyebrows in Article 10: 3/9

Section of Article 10 of the 2015 Declaration of Principle states:

"if the parties are unable to resolve the dispute through consultation or negotiation, they may request for conciliation, mediation or refer the matter for the consideration of the Heads of State/Government" 4/9

Here is my simple but logical explanations for why #Egypt is all of a sudden becoming keen on invoking Article 10 of the 2015 Declaration of Principle: 5/9

1a) #Egypt knew in the past that the previous leaders of #Ethiopia, prior to #Abiy, had unwavering stand on the #GERD i.e. the past Ministers & the Head of Government would've rejected any Egypt's unfair demands. Hence, Egypt wasn't willing to risk utilising its last resort. 6/9

1b) Both #Meles & #Hailemariam were clear on where #Ethiopia stand in terms of not engaging with third parties e.g. two years ago, Hailemariam rejected a call by #Egypt for #WorldBank arbitration: reuters.com/article/us-eth…

What has changed since #Abiy came to power then? 7/9

2a) #Egypt now spotted an opportunity, since #Abiy came to power, & wants to capitalise on Abiy's perplexing stand on the #GERD & other matters in #Ethiopia. Egypt is winning so far by shaking #Ethiopia's past firm stand on not to engage with third parties such as #WorldBank. 8/9

2b) #Egypt now feels that it could win either with the ministers or with the Head of Government.

Egypt seems confident that Abiy will submit to its demands i.e. the #GERD & the #Nile matter will be officially buried, leaving a terrible scar on #Ethiopia's history & economy. 9/9

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