THREAD: 1. US killing of Iran’s top general Qassem Soleimani is a disastrous act of war. I spent nearly 1 year investigating Shia militias & Iranian influence in Iraq. A few important points for those who don’t follow this:
2. When ISIS stormed through Iraq grabbing territory, the Iraqi army fled (partly due to the early US withdrawal of support & the Iran-backed Iraqi president’s mismanagement of army leaving it undertrained & weak)
3. Iraq’s highest Shia cleric called for Shias to fight ISIS & so Shia militias were (re-)formed in 2014. It was thanks to these Shia militias that ISIS didn’t seize Baghdad & it was contained
4. Iran was 1st foreign power to help in fight against ISIS, sending weapons, technical support & later fighters to bordering Diyala province
5. The US & Iraq could not have successfully fought ISIS without Iran & the Kurds (note: the US recently screwed the Kurds, again). There was an unspoken agreement between coalition forces & Tehran during the shared campaign against ISIS
6. The fight against ISIS gave Iran a chance to expand its influence & power in Iraq. Many powerful Iraqi Shia figures depend on Iran for backing, but it’s not an easy relationship. Ultimately, most of these Iraqis want to run Iraq without interference, but need Iran right now
7. Kataib Hezbollah is perhaps most feared & secretive of militias answering directly to Iran (chain of command not so clearcut with others). We spoke to other militias & a militia leader who said even they feared Kataib. Kataib‘s been stepping up kidnappings & sectarian violence
8. Qassem Soleimani is thought to be the most powerful man in Iran after the Supreme Leader. Soleimani fought against Saddam in the Iran-Iraq war & for many he was a war hero.
9. Iranians are more disillusioned with the regime than ever. But Soleimani’s death plays into the regime’s hands - a timely distraction to be used to rally & unite Iranians against the US
10. What next? Who knows. But Tehran will - at some point - retaliate. The regime can’t afford a war - it is not financially or militarily equipped. It can easily step up its proxy wars in Iraq, Syria, targeting the US & hit back in Israel.
11. Watch our multi award-winning, incl @RFKHumanRights award (& Emmy nominated)
documentary on Shia militias on @frontlinepbs pbs.org/wgbh/frontline… and for UK viewers on @C4Dispatches (ISIS and the Battle for Iraq) @MaisBayaa
documentary on Shia militias on @frontlinepbs pbs.org/wgbh/frontline… and for UK viewers on @C4Dispatches (ISIS and the Battle for Iraq) @MaisBayaa
(Meant Iran-backed Iraqi PM, not president in point 2).
