My cautionary prediction: Khamenei will retaliate not against US bases but something much more limited. Will try to sell it as the #SevereRevenge he promised.
Unlike Trump, Khamenei is prudent and has survived decades at the helm. +
Unlike Trump, Khamenei is prudent and has survived decades at the helm. +
Khamenei has never shown reckless or even bold decision-making. His strong self-preservation instinct has always taken over. An attack on US won't be just reckless but suicidal.
There are, ofc, dangers and things might spiral EVEN out of his hand but I'd say that's unlikely.
There are, ofc, dangers and things might spiral EVEN out of his hand but I'd say that's unlikely.
Short historical memory is always a problem in news coverage in such days.
Some of the past US actions that didn't lead to US-Iran war include shooting down an Iranian airliner which killed hundreds of innocent Iranians.
Some of the past US actions that didn't lead to US-Iran war include shooting down an Iranian airliner which killed hundreds of innocent Iranians.
@khamenei_ir has long been a revolutionary activist but also an Iranian patriot. The two have always been part of his core identity. From the 1960s, when he was part of the #GlobalSixties scene as a young intellectual in Mashhad, hobnobbing with Marxists and progressives.
@khamenei_ir He is proud of the Islamic Republic he has helped build and the tentacles it has spread around the region. Like Stalin at the height of his power, his aim is both preservation of his own rule and that of the regime and the movement he is proud of building.
@khamenei_ir The dilemma is:
1) He knows a direct confrontation with the US will mean the destruction for his country and his regime.
2) He knows inaction will have severe consequences for his revolutionary prestige inside and outside Iran. Not to mention an actual loss of base.
1) He knows a direct confrontation with the US will mean the destruction for his country and his regime.
2) He knows inaction will have severe consequences for his revolutionary prestige inside and outside Iran. Not to mention an actual loss of base.
@khamenei_ir But he's been there before and he has proven to be much more astute and cautionary than the likes of Qaddafi or Assad.
My guess is he will try to find a middle ground and do anything he can to avoid war.
He might also authorize immediate secret negotiations with Trump.
My guess is he will try to find a middle ground and do anything he can to avoid war.
He might also authorize immediate secret negotiations with Trump.
@khamenei_ir What should progressives in Iran and the US do?
Fight with all of our might to prevent war. #NoWarOnIran!
We must struggle for de-escalation. Escalation will have ZERO progressive content for either of the countries.
Fight with all of our might to prevent war. #NoWarOnIran!
We must struggle for de-escalation. Escalation will have ZERO progressive content for either of the countries.
