1.
I´ve decided to sell my entire Rockrose position.I bought Aercap instead where now I hold a big position in my portfolio
$AER is a great business that Mr. Market cant value properly with a lot of upside
But first,I wanna thank my friend @financialsigma who told me this idea
I´ve decided to sell my entire Rockrose position.I bought Aercap instead where now I hold a big position in my portfolio
$AER is a great business that Mr. Market cant value properly with a lot of upside
But first,I wanna thank my friend @financialsigma who told me this idea
2.
Well Aercap is a great business, they lease planes to airlines
It has been flat since 2014, market cannot understand it but I can cause I think long-term. On 2040 it will be worth more.
Besides Im humble wich makes me a better analyst.
Well Aercap is a great business, they lease planes to airlines
It has been flat since 2014, market cannot understand it but I can cause I think long-term. On 2040 it will be worth more.
Besides Im humble wich makes me a better analyst.
3.
Some years it will go up, some down, it depends on Mr. Market mood. On 2019 Mr. Market was on LSD so it went up.
IRs do not affect Aercap cause they transfer it to the clients, it´s actually signed in the contract and that´s the only way IRs affect credit business.
Some years it will go up, some down, it depends on Mr. Market mood. On 2019 Mr. Market was on LSD so it went up.
IRs do not affect Aercap cause they transfer it to the clients, it´s actually signed in the contract and that´s the only way IRs affect credit business.
4.
They have a system of leasing and scale that gives them a competitive advantadge. They can take a plane in one week if the client don´t pay.
You can´t replicate that.
They have a system of leasing and scale that gives them a competitive advantadge. They can take a plane in one week if the client don´t pay.
You can´t replicate that.
5.
Basically AER is like a bank but better in all the aspects.
Banks have trillions at 0% on deposits, access to the discount window, access to LIBOR, yield on excess reserves overnight, FDIC insurance (banks are GSEs...), Congress charters, voice on FED, more leverage....
Basically AER is like a bank but better in all the aspects.
Banks have trillions at 0% on deposits, access to the discount window, access to LIBOR, yield on excess reserves overnight, FDIC insurance (banks are GSEs...), Congress charters, voice on FED, more leverage....
6.
AER wins in all aspects:
- They only have one type of asset (great!)
- Less leverage (This can shock you but when you are a value investor less leverage is good in credit) and
- Who wants LIBOR if you can borrow in the HY market???
- Two providers (who wants deposits?)
AER wins in all aspects:
- They only have one type of asset (great!)
- Less leverage (This can shock you but when you are a value investor less leverage is good in credit) and
- Who wants LIBOR if you can borrow in the HY market???
- Two providers (who wants deposits?)
7.
Liquidity isn´t an issue too for AER. HY never freeze, when things are bad you will raise 2b at LIBOR+300bps overnight,
This was a one time event:
spglobal.com/marketintellig…
Liquidity isn´t an issue too for AER. HY never freeze, when things are bad you will raise 2b at LIBOR+300bps overnight,
This was a one time event:
spglobal.com/marketintellig…
8.
I also heard Powell never opens his mouth before phoning aircraft and the lobbies of aircraft lessors are feared along Washington.
Now Im gonna tell you how much this must be valued. Market is wrong, they value AER as credit but it´s actually a quality niche compounder.
I also heard Powell never opens his mouth before phoning aircraft and the lobbies of aircraft lessors are feared along Washington.
Now Im gonna tell you how much this must be valued. Market is wrong, they value AER as credit but it´s actually a quality niche compounder.
9.
Did I metion the CEO Angus?
He reads 269 book sper year, he is a good person, he pets his dog. Also he once healed a deaf and he is smart, thanks to that his company makes and increadible ROE of 10.5% (Imagine if he was dumb)
Did I metion the CEO Angus?
He reads 269 book sper year, he is a good person, he pets his dog. Also he once healed a deaf and he is smart, thanks to that his company makes and increadible ROE of 10.5% (Imagine if he was dumb)
10.
Market prices US banks at 1.2x bv. AER should trade at minimum 2x bv but as I told you AER is not credit its a niche/quality/compounder
At 25x profits AER is worth 240$!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
God thanks Im so good at excel, without it I could never arrive to this conclusions
Market prices US banks at 1.2x bv. AER should trade at minimum 2x bv but as I told you AER is not credit its a niche/quality/compounder
At 25x profits AER is worth 240$!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
God thanks Im so good at excel, without it I could never arrive to this conclusions
11.
AER is undervalued by any known measure. I am long with 50% of my portfolio
I don´t know what AER it´s gonna do this year cause nobody knows what moves credit valuations but one day of the next 15 years market will understand aircraft lessors.
Thanks Alex
#valueinvesting
AER is undervalued by any known measure. I am long with 50% of my portfolio
I don´t know what AER it´s gonna do this year cause nobody knows what moves credit valuations but one day of the next 15 years market will understand aircraft lessors.
Thanks Alex
#valueinvesting
