1. Which side has escalation dominance right now between Iran and the US? The White House will strongly assert the US does, because of our unmatched military capabilities. I'm not so sure. Let's think it through ...
2. Trump doesn't want a war with Iran. It would consume immense energy, time, and resources, and involves significant risks and uncertainties. What he wants is a couple of one-off actions that demonstrate his strength and resolve, and illustrate a contrast with Obama.
3. This has been his pattern in Syria: tactical shows of strength, accompanied by strategic withdrawal. Some might argue this is wise, others not, but that's been his desired course, not full-on intervention.
4. Some have speculated that Iran might retaliate for the Soleimani hit with a terrorist attack in the US. On reflection, I think this is unlikely. Such an attack would only unify US public opinion and bring the full military wrath of the US down on Iran.
5. More likely, I think, Iran will set loose the Shiite militias to try to inflict casualties on US troops there and drive the US from Iraq. Yes, it was already doing this, but it will ramp it up, with the Iraqi government at least tacitly on board.
6. This puts the US in a difficult spot. How does it retaliate without striking Iran directly and opening the wider conflict it seeks to avoid? Not unlike the US fighting the Viet Cong in South Vietnam yet unwilling to fight North Vietnam directly, except maybe via airstrikes.
7. Iran might also have proxies to attack oil infrastructure and shipping in the Persian Gulf (using drones, speedboats, and perhaps even cyber). Again, they've already been doing this but they could up the ante.
8. The purpose here is not to start a shooting war with Saudi Arabia, but demonstrate that, in the event of full-blown conflict, Iran could threaten the regional flow of oil and cause global oil prices to soar.
9. Lastly, Iran will likely abandon any remaining pretense of following the nuclear accord. Again, something they might have dared to do anyway, eventually, but now the world will place most of the blame on the US.
10. What are Iran's strategic goals? I can think of three, immediately.
11. First, dominate largely Shiite Iraq, linking it with its existing allies in Syria and Lebanon. The result: a "Fertile Crescent" that replicates ISIS's aspirations, but under Iranian hegemony. That would pose a serious threat for Israel to contend with.
12. Second, establish itself as "top dog" in the Persian Gulf, against Saudi Arabia's ambitions, with an Iranian hand on the valve of at least 20% of the world's oil and natural gas flows.
13. Third, achieve an operation nuclear deterrent against the US, at first regionally, then globally, much as North Korea has been able to do. This would insulate Iran from the threat of direct US attack, giving it a much freer hand as a regional hegemon.
14. Advocates of the Soleimani hit rightly point out that these were already Iran's goals. The debate is whether our action will deter Iran from pursuing them, or prompt and facilitate them to pursue them even more aggressively.
15. That is where the question of escalation dominance comes in. Who can push who harder, and still be in a position to achieve their goals? As the war in Vietnam showed, this is not purely a question of military strength, but the limits those very goals place on its exercise.
16. To Iran's objectives, I would add one. Someday, after it has secured at least some of these more immediate goals, I predict Iran will look to assassinate a very senior US official, as direct blood-for-blood payback for Soleimani.
17. That won't be easy. It will take time, patience, and planning. But they need time anyway to focus on improving their position, in the ways I've described. And they will subscribe to the old proverb that revenge is a dish best served cold.
18. I'm not saying we should be intimidated by this. I'm saying we should be aware of it, and not forget it, even after it seems like they've forgotten.
19. A caveat: I don't pretend to be an expert on Iran. I've tried to read about Iran, I've traveled the region, but I'm no expert. I'm just trying to think through, logically, what I would do if I were in their shoes.
20. Let's not kid ourselves: the US and Iran have been waging a low-intensity conflict with each other since 1979. But it just entered a new phase, and we should not allow ourselves to be blindsided by that fact.
