Since it's become a tradition, I'll sum up the new statement from the ISIS spokesman although it says almost nothing -- much less anything new. But it does emphasize a couple of relevant messages:
The recording could have been part 2 of the statement that immediately followed the killing of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Most of it went over the history of ISIS to establish how ISIS has seen this movie before, and that any proclamation about its demise are premature.
That part is objectively accurate: ISIS is still a major threat & has what it takes to endure & re-emerge. Currently, as I keep saying, its biggest achievement is that it has survived the upheavals it faced in recent years & kept its "organism" intact. Vital to count that in.
He speaks about the inhiyaz (which I wrote about before in the @nytimes, nytimes.com/2016/10/24/opi…) and baqiya (the famous slogan of 'remaining') to explain the current phase in historical context.
@nytimes The ISIS spokesman makes no explicit mention of Qassem Soleimani, but refers to Shia militias "who fought with the US" whose leaders got killed by the US (this could be KH's commanders killed in Anbar, or Soleimani). He mentions attacks against US embassy, and stops there.
Spokesman to Sunni tribes: ISIS is constantly receiving lists of names for collaborators among the tribes [against ISIS].
He threatens that they’ll be attacked by ISIS sooner or later. He says tribal figures are ratting them out, but others are informing ISIS on them.
He threatens that they’ll be attacked by ISIS sooner or later. He says tribal figures are ratting them out, but others are informing ISIS on them.
ISIS spokesman says that, even though the group has been defeated military in Syria and Iraq, it still has territorial presence (tamkeen) in some areas & engaged in a persistent & effective war of attrition (nikaya).
ISIS spokesman calls on sympathizers to travel to "the wilayat near to you", reassures those in captivity that they'll be released in the future, and calls on followers not to busy themselves with hearsay and internal disputes.
I and @MosulEye agree that the ISIS spokesman, whose identity is yet to be revealed, is most likely to be from Iraq or Syria. Specifically, from northern Iraq or eastern Syria. By his accent.
@MosulEye The only problem, obviously, is that his nom de guerre suggests that he's neither Iraqi or Syrian. This could be a ploy, or an old kunya he used in other battlefields before. Also possible that he wanted to suggest he's from Iraq or Syria. Or we are totally wrong about the accent
@MosulEye There is one very interesting point in the ISIS spokesman's statement, related to how experts study the subject.
Why did ISIS declare an Islamic State in 2006? 'Experts' focus on the ideology to explain it. But this is an example of why geopolitical+local context matters
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Why did ISIS declare an Islamic State in 2006? 'Experts' focus on the ideology to explain it. But this is an example of why geopolitical+local context matters
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The spokesman, as ISIS did before, gives a precise answer to this question: After the killing of Abu Musab Zarqawi, the group wanted to preempt imminent attempts to form a Sunni region in northern & western Iraq. So it formed an Islamic state & moved to carve out that territory.
ISIS has said this before. From the group's narrative, the US along with Sunni actors planned to carve out a Sunni region & declare a war against al-Qaeda in Iraq. The group then declared its own region, under "Islamic State of Iraq". The ideology reflected, not guided, that move
ISIS says the new Sunni region would be controlled by the Muslim Brotherhood and others, so it focused on those elements as a fundamental part of its ideology. Indeed, rivalry with the MB came earlier, and led it to focus on the MB as apostates in its ideology after 2003-2004.
One more reminder why the so-called experts are wrong about Zarqawi importing the distinct ISIS ideology into Iraq. It's one of the most defended myths about this group. The ideology was shaped by internal IRAQ dynamics, before & after 2003. More here: theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
