A thread.
1/n
Okay, guys, listen up all ye interested in India's public finances. With 9 months data now in, on this site: cga.gov.in/MonthlyReport/…
what do we know about how the #NDA2Govt is managing the economy?
1/n
Okay, guys, listen up all ye interested in India's public finances. With 9 months data now in, on this site: cga.gov.in/MonthlyReport/…
what do we know about how the #NDA2Govt is managing the economy?
2/n
Quite simply the situation is even worse than it was at the same stage in last financial year. COPPY stands of Corresponding Period in Previous Year. Remember 9 months is 75% of the year behind us.
Quite simply the situation is even worse than it was at the same stage in last financial year. COPPY stands of Corresponding Period in Previous Year. Remember 9 months is 75% of the year behind us.
3/n
Total revenues (that includes windfalls from RBI raids) is at 58% of what was estimated in #Budget2019. Tax revenues are even worse, 55% (you'd expect 75%) The shortfall is in fact 3.25 lakh crores that is 20% less than waht it should be at this stage of the Year.
Total revenues (that includes windfalls from RBI raids) is at 58% of what was estimated in #Budget2019. Tax revenues are even worse, 55% (you'd expect 75%) The shortfall is in fact 3.25 lakh crores that is 20% less than waht it should be at this stage of the Year.
4/n
Of the Non tax revenues the best performing item is something called 'Dividends and Profits'. This is running at 99% of the full Year estimate. A big chunk of this has to be the RBI windfall dividend payment.
Of the Non tax revenues the best performing item is something called 'Dividends and Profits'. This is running at 99% of the full Year estimate. A big chunk of this has to be the RBI windfall dividend payment.
5/n
The biggest chunk of the Government's revenues is usually tax. Here the performance has been particularly d i s m a l.
An underperforming jobless economy does not generate taxes. Tax revenues for this stage of the year are short by 3.3 lakh crores, a whopping 28%.
The biggest chunk of the Government's revenues is usually tax. Here the performance has been particularly d i s m a l.
An underperforming jobless economy does not generate taxes. Tax revenues for this stage of the year are short by 3.3 lakh crores, a whopping 28%.
6/n
Turning to the expenditure side. its largely on track. 75% of the planned expenditure has been incurred.
Turning to the expenditure side. its largely on track. 75% of the planned expenditure has been incurred.
7/n
So If Revenues are trailing behind the planned budget but expenditure is on track, there has obviously to be a deficit. And it is b a l l o o n i n g.
Remember the last column is the figure for Last Year.
So If Revenues are trailing behind the planned budget but expenditure is on track, there has obviously to be a deficit. And it is b a l l o o n i n g.
Remember the last column is the figure for Last Year.
8/n
Lets understand these 3 figures.
Fiscal deficit = Total Expenditure - Total Receipts
Or FD = TE - TR
(Recall that total receipts = Revenue receipts + Non-Debt capital receipts).
FD at Month 9 is running at 32 % ABOVE what was planned for the whole year.
Lets understand these 3 figures.
Fiscal deficit = Total Expenditure - Total Receipts
Or FD = TE - TR
(Recall that total receipts = Revenue receipts + Non-Debt capital receipts).
FD at Month 9 is running at 32 % ABOVE what was planned for the whole year.
9/n
The Revenue deficit (RD) looks just at the revenue gap.
RD = Revenue Expenditure (RE) - Revenue Income (RI)
Remember Interest payments on Govt Debt is a big chunk of RE. The plan in Budget2019 was for 27% of RE to be Interest payments. As at month 9 this was 23%
The Revenue deficit (RD) looks just at the revenue gap.
RD = Revenue Expenditure (RE) - Revenue Income (RI)
Remember Interest payments on Govt Debt is a big chunk of RE. The plan in Budget2019 was for 27% of RE to be Interest payments. As at month 9 this was 23%
10/n
The Primary Deficit is the Fiscal Deficit with the Interest payments taken out out.
PD= FD - Interest Payments; OR to be explicit
PD = (Total Expenditure - Interest Payments) - Total Receipts.
This at Month 9 is running at a whopping 11.5 TIMES what was planned for the FY
The Primary Deficit is the Fiscal Deficit with the Interest payments taken out out.
PD= FD - Interest Payments; OR to be explicit
PD = (Total Expenditure - Interest Payments) - Total Receipts.
This at Month 9 is running at a whopping 11.5 TIMES what was planned for the FY
11/11 The Budget2019 estimate was that the Primary deficit would be 0.43 Lakh Crores. At Month 9 it stood at just under 5.1 Lakh crores.
END
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12/ n
Minor editorial correction:
In Tweet No 3/n in this tweet thread I inadvertently omitted to attach the following image. It is a screen shot of the 'Accounts at a Glance' table showing the Receipts and how it is broken down.
Minor editorial correction:
In Tweet No 3/n in this tweet thread I inadvertently omitted to attach the following image. It is a screen shot of the 'Accounts at a Glance' table showing the Receipts and how it is broken down.
