Lord Ashcroft's report on Labour, based on a poll of 10,000 and 18 focus groups in seats Labour lost. Nothing in these two paragraphs is unexpected, but it's great that he's collected the evidence to back up what many of us have been saying for years.
lordashcroftpolls.com/2020/02/diagno…
lordashcroftpolls.com/2020/02/diagno…
Top five reasons for Labour losing
According to defectors:
Brexit
Corbyn
Division
No longer represents its traditional voters
Undeliverable promises
According to Labour members:
Brexit
Mislead by media
Mislead by Tories
Voters are wrong
Voters are racist
According to defectors:
Brexit
Corbyn
Division
No longer represents its traditional voters
Undeliverable promises
According to Labour members:
Brexit
Mislead by media
Mislead by Tories
Voters are wrong
Voters are racist
Reasons given by defectors for not voting Labour
Wow... The majority (52%) of Lab to Con switchers found it *easier* than usual to decide how to vote
These focus group quotes are as brutal as you'd expect for a party that lost 59 seats to a not-too-popular PM after almost a decade in opposition:
"Which of the following do you think was the best Labour leader of recent times?"
Just in case anyone still thinks this stuff doesn't matter...
"Though they often named Brexit and Jeremy Corbyn among their primary reasons for not voting Labour, most former Labour voters in our groups did not think the party would be fixed once these two factors were out of the way"
Majority of Labour members prioritise winning an election, although there's a *bit* of a factional split...
#LabourLeadership most chosen words
Starmer:
“Competent”, “up to the job”, “potential election winner”
RLB:
“Out of touch”, “out of her depth“, “arrogant”, “doesn’t listen”
Thornberry:
“arrogant”, “smug”, “out of touch”, “doesn’t listen”
Nandy:
“likeable”, “out of her depth”
Starmer:
“Competent”, “up to the job”, “potential election winner”
RLB:
“Out of touch”, “out of her depth“, “arrogant”, “doesn’t listen”
Thornberry:
“arrogant”, “smug”, “out of touch”, “doesn’t listen”
Nandy:
“likeable”, “out of her depth”
Very important point👇
On the Labour leadership contenders, it's worth pointing out that name recognition is pretty low, so the responses to the word association questions will be too. Report says this was particularly true for Lisa Nandy (although it doesn't give numbers)
This research is *potentially* hugely valuable to Labour (and would not have been cheap). After Ashcroft's 2005 report, David Cameron was able to take the Conservatives back into power. But Cameron listened to this kind of stuff. The next Labour leader really needs to do so too.
For more polling, analysis and election news, sign up here for the @NCPoliticsUK briefing:
ncpolitics.uk/briefing/
ncpolitics.uk/briefing/
Many of the responses to the quotes on PC/wokeness assume the implication is that Labour needs to embrace bigotry. No-one is advocating compromising on the *principle* of being anti-prejudice. But you *can* accept nuance/differing views on the *specifics*
capx.co/what-does-shif…
capx.co/what-does-shif…
Yep. Little about 2019 was out of line with what the fundamentals or the usual rules of politics. 2017 is the election that’s hard to explain.
The common theme throughout this, reinforced by some of the replies, is just how far removed opinion within a large part of Labour is from the general electorate. Political parties are by definition not representative, but it’s a question of (1) degree and (2) self-awareness
