What happens now with #ge2020 and the next Irish govt? (Thread)
Reminder: this is big stuff.
Neither Irish politics, NI politics nor Anglo-Irish politics has had to deal with Sinn Féin so powerful across the island of Ireland before. Nor has Ireland voted left before.
Reminder: this is big stuff.
Neither Irish politics, NI politics nor Anglo-Irish politics has had to deal with Sinn Féin so powerful across the island of Ireland before. Nor has Ireland voted left before.
Won’t go into all the details as to why this happened, have done so already, if you missed it, here is my take on that here.
In short, FF/FG, in their own respective ways, completely misjudged the public mood. SF got it completely right.
In short, FF/FG, in their own respective ways, completely misjudged the public mood. SF got it completely right.
It’s vulgar but this has been a common refrain doing the rounds among voters about the difference between and antics of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil (via @Limerick_Leader). 
Seems likely that FG will go into opposition. They can’t and won’t work with SF. FF and FG are ideologically similar but FG are more economically Conservative. They won’t accept SF’s economic programme. Talking to most FG TDs, they think they’ve no mandate to govern.
FF will balk at much of SF’s programme but could probably find a way to swallow enough of it to make a deal work. The primary problems for them and Micheál Martin are political, not based around policy.
For a start, MM and FF still find SF deeply distatesful. They believe (and MM especially feels this especially viscerally) that SF have never properly denounced its past, nor the IRA. The couple of IRA chants/singing we’ve seen in recent days have hardly assuaged those concerns.
Then there’s the electoral problems. Worry for FF must be that SF are now a major permanent fixture of ROI politics, as is a more typical left/right divide. If so, long term there may not be space for both FF/FG. Given civil war cleavage now gone, possible one will slowly vanish.
So if the primary fissure of Irish politics now becomes pro/anti SF, there’s a potential big electoral prize for the party which doesn’t work with them this time and big potential penalty for that which does.
You could easily see a situ where FF forms govt with SF and big chunk of FF support goes FG and FF is reduced to a rump.
That said if Martin sits this out he almost certainly will never become Taoiseach (he’d be the first FF leader never to do so) and the party risks another election where SF stands more candidates and wins bigger.
In terms of wider British/NI effects, don’t expect anything immediately. Govt formation could take a long time. Brexit policy is v much Brussels driven in phase 2.
Nonetheless, a dominant SF must and will affect power dynamics across all of Ireland and beyond.
Nonetheless, a dominant SF must and will affect power dynamics across all of Ireland and beyond.
As my interview with MLM showed yesterday, she sees this result (at least in part) as a rejection of partition. If she becomes PM (even if she doesn’t) she will start preparing for a border poll, asking EU to make it their policy to support and favour a united Ireland.
Having an Irish govt (or a significant part of it) working for and advocating a united Ireland is not something the British govt or NI has had to deal with for a v long time and not at all since the GFA was signed. It’s a big change.
Also, spare a thought for the DUP. They’ve gone from being the most powerful political forces in the UK to a GB bit player and now face seeing their old adversary triumphant.
That said- a more powerful SF in the Republic will likely frighten the horses of elements unionism in the north even more and make some already pretty worried elements, more concerned still and more resistant to change.
Finally, lots of comparisons made about #ge2020 and other unexpected results of recent years.
One thing I think does connect them: voters seem to have had enough of being told what is and isn’t possible by old political establishments. Their political imaginations, are wider.
One thing I think does connect them: voters seem to have had enough of being told what is and isn’t possible by old political establishments. Their political imaginations, are wider.
Many thanks to all of you who have been saying kind things about my Irish election coverage. If you’ve read this thread and want to know more, links to the two @BBCNewsnight pieces I’ve made (pre and post election) are here:
And here
