Thread by @doug_parr

Thread alert!!

For those interested in what the future might hold, here are some thoughts on what happens now for #Heathrow and UK aviation policy after this seismic judgement

bbc.co.uk/news/business-…

Now government has said they won't appeal this judgement, what are the options for government?

The legal point is that the Aviation National Policy Statement should have taken into account the Paris Agreement on climate and didn't, which judge said was a misdirection in law

So govt could just re-write it (and get Commons to vote it through) with new wording on net zero referencing the legal target UK has

Would that work?

Well there would need to be some substantive policy to deliver otherwise there could be further legals

Specifically they would likely need to be compatible with the CCC advice to government on the meaning of the net zero target for aviation

theccc.org.uk/publication/le…

This said that aviation emissions would need to come down from 2005 levels of 37.5MtCO2 to around 30MtCO2 in 2050

Given some mitigation (like increased efficiency of planes, some biofuels etc.) this could allow expansion of passenger flights by around 25%

Note here that, IMHO, CCC are actually pretty optimistic on climate mitigation potential of fuel efficiency, genuinely-sustainable biofuels, Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) etc. and that this maybe rather too big a carbon budget for aviation. But lets go with it

Govt could choose to ignore CCC but aside from being irresponsible it’s not a good look for PM Johnson repeatedly committing to net zero target

The consequence of that lower target is either allow heathrow to go ahead **OR** allow airports elsewhere in UK to expand

And for a government committed to 'levelling up' UK regions that's a no-brainer

(Let's also leave here that the assumption that airport expansion is good for local economies - which is widely held, but is actually very arguable)

And there's also that thing about the now-Prime Minister Johnson promising to 'lie down in front of the bulldozers' when he was London Mayor

Of course political promises can be broken, but, you know, #awkward

washingtonpost.com/news/worldview…

And Johnson very clearly signalled that for him, the proposed HS2 rail-line reduces the need for an expanded Heathrow

huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/hs2-heat…

In summary, whilst legally the revised Airport National Policy Statement could still allow Heathrow expansion, both climate barriers & political barriers substantially higher than they were in 2018 when 3rd runway was given the go-ahead

It's not over though