Thread by @AltWASONPS

Before the great recession the record high of the DJIA was $14,198.10. This was on 10/11/2007

The DJIA reached it's low of $6,470.00 on 3/6/2009. That's a loss of $7,728.1, or 54.43%

This wasn't just the Dow, the vast majority of the market was cut in half.

That's what the financial markets looked like during the Great Recession.

There is more to it though. The IMF describes a global recession as a decline in real per-capita world gross domestic product.

Using that metric the decline started in December 2007.

You will notice that the market drop, and extreme market volatity preceded the date that is when the recession officially started.

There is a lot of reasons for that, but part of it is due to traders attempting to predict what the future holds for the market.

And it's usually not a wild, dart at the wall (although that has happened) prediction. No, it's more often than not extremely complex financial models that take in all sorts of information..

Like consumer demand, costs of raw materials, trade, etc.

I could provide a lot of examples, but more to the point...

The market has been in turmoil since January 2018, when announced tariffs on China. This started a massive trade war that hurt both sides.

It (DJIA) went from a, at the time record high of $26,608.90 on 1/29/18...

Down to $21,712.5 on 12/26/18. That's a decrease of $4,897.40 and brought us awfully close to the the opening price of $19,795.10 on 1/20/17.

If you get really bored, you can plot the major trade announcements over the past 2 years and see how the market reacted.

Anyways, so the market did recover, it had been shooting up for the past several months, largely because of the US and China making a trade deal (even though not complete).

Then Coronavirus hit.

We had a market high of $29,551.40 on 2/12/20.

Today we closed at $25,776.60; a 12.81% drop in 15 days.

Because everyone is worried about the impact the Coronavirus will have on the world economy and trade.

China is locked everything down, flights are being redirected, stores are shutting down, and there are reports of potential issues with global supply production..

And we, from the recent congressional hearings, are months if not more away from a vaccine.

So the only thing we can really do at this point is try to stop or slow it from spreading, and in turn, limiting it's impact on the world economy.

The issue here, beyond the obvious with Coronavirus, is that an extended downturn of the global economy causes a recession.

The market is already pricing it in. That's why we have already lost 38.79% of the gains since Trump took office.

Gains that would likely have been significantly more if not for Trump's trade war.

And that's the real point. Trump is an idiot. One who, beyond other things..

- Does not know the first thing about global trade or the economy.
- Flat out lies to the public about the current situation
- Put Pence, the guy who failed to address Indiana's HIV epidemic, in charge.

To wrap up. I'm not saying that there will be a recession.. but if there is one, it will be because a bunch of idiots are in the White House.

So, yea. I'm not sure what else to say other than please elect anyone other than Trump.

Oh, my price target is $21,800 (+/- a few points