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⚠️Unnerving report from the Center for Health Security on the impact of #coronavirus on our hospitals.

Even if we assume that the case-fatality rate for #COVID19 is 0.5% (as for the 1968 and 1957 #pandemics), we won’t have enough ICU beds.

@thespybrief
centerforhealthsecurity.org/cbn/
Here are the projections.

“As a comparison, there are about 46,500 medical ICU beds in the United States and perhaps an equal number of other ICU beds that could be used in a crisis. Even spread out over several months, the mismatch between demand and resources is clear.”
So even if the CFR for #coronavirus is 0.5%, substantially less than the ~3.4% reported, we do NOT have enough ICU beds to treat patients, even if spread out over months.

#COVID19 #CoronavirusOutbreak

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More from @DrDenaGrayson see all

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Dr. Dena Grayson
@DrDenaGrayson
I appeared on @SkyNews and hammered Trump for completely bungling his response to the #CoronavirusOutbreak.

"Trump is going to try to spin this, but what he's going to find...is that you can't spin death.

Full video👉🏼
#COVID19 #coronavirus @thespybrief
“It’s pretty clear what the Trump Administration’s priorities have been. It’s been the (financial) market, his political future, rather than the lives of the American people.”

#coronavirus #COVID19 #CoronavirusOutbreak #CoronavirusPandemic
Q: is (Trump) not being the calm voice of reason?

Me: No...it’s the calm voice of complete disinterest and fecklessness. He’s ignoring an ongoing crisis....that is very likely going to spiral out of control and get very bad, very very quickly.

#COVID19
Read 3 tweets
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Dr. Dena Grayson
@DrDenaGrayson
‼️For weeks, thousands of samples sat in #Seattle as researchers sought to test them for #coronavirus, but @CDCgov wouldn’t allow it.

“We felt like we were sitting, waiting for the #pandemic to emerge. We could help. We couldn’t do anything.”🤬
nytimes.com/2020/03/10/us/…
While the CDC failed to provide working #COVID19 tests, private and university clinical labs, which typically can develop their own tests, were frustrated about the SLOWNESS of the FDA as they prepped applications for emergency approvals from FDA for their #coronavirus tests.🤬
This is damning. While the Trump Administration LIED that there would be 1 million tests last week, instead there were countless untested samples in the “hot zone” of #Seattle that could have been tested EARLY, but were BLOCKED.

How many people were infected because of this⁉️
Read 7 tweets
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Dr. Dena Grayson
@DrDenaGrayson
⚠️#COVID19 cases increase exponentially.

#China
1/23: 444 cases
1/30: 4,903
2/6: 22,112

#Italy
2/22: 62
2/29: 888
3/6: 4,636

Trump bungled #coronavirus testing, so the reported 729 US cases are just a fraction of the real cases.

Expect a MASSIVE surge.
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
Even if this #coronavirus is seasonal as predicted AND the US employs aggressive containment (broad testing, contact tracing, quarantines), we still will see a MASSIVE surge in cases, because people have already been infected (2-week incubation + ~5 days for symptoms).
Containment can and will decrease the rate of #coronavirus spread. But if the US doesn’t adopt rigorous containment efforts NOW, the number of new #COVID19 cases will be MUCH higher than already predicted.

#CoronavirusPandemic
Read 3 tweets

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Coronavirus Central
@CoronavirusCast
My research indicates there are four key elements that could potentially collapse the medical system of a given nation in response specifically to the #coronavirus, and we will use the US as the example, any one of which can be fatal, and every one of which is a problem. 1/n
The four critical areas for #Covid19 are:
1) Lack of PPE (masks) leading to loss of workers (HCW)
2) Lack of antiviral drugs (Remdesivir/Chloroquine) for stabilization of patients
3) Lack of ICU bed capacity
4) Lack of Ventilators for oxygen support
2/n
As the Washington Post reported and @LizSpecht covered brilliantly last week (threadreaderapp.com/thread/1236095…), we have sufficient mask capacity at current production and consumption to protect our workers in health care (HCW) for two days under proper usage guidelines. 3/n
Read 25 tweets
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Christopher Mims 🎆
@mims
IANAE (I am not an epidemiologist) but I did just interview the co-author of a report for the Center for Health Security on the impact of Coronavirus, he believes the ultimate number of infected / hospitalized in U.S. will be somewhere between the two estimates on this table 1/
Here's the report. Dr. Toner added: on average 90% of America's ICU beds are occupied, especially after a bad flu season like the one we're in. So what we are facing, he believes, is an orders-of-magnitude mismatch between beds needed and available. 2/

centerforhealthsecurity.org/cbn/
He emphasized that this profound mismatch between available ICU beds and what we would need if we did nothing is why we all have to work together to "flatten the curve" of cases by social distancing, practicing good hygiene, canceling big events, etc. 3/
Read 13 tweets
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Dannielle Blumenthal PhD
@DrDannielle
This graphic shows that the #Coronavirus did not start in a "market." Of the first 4 cases identified (Dec. 1-10, 2019), 3 were NOT exposed to the market and 1 was.

thelancet.com/journals/lance…
Unfortunately social panic has been stoked and set in. So it may be too late to make people stop and think.
Hat tip to ZeroHedge, citing GreatGameIndia.com, which mentioned Sen. Tom Cotton's statement citing Lancet's data.

zerohedge.com/health/creator…
greatgameindia.com/dr-francis-boy…
Read 52 tweets
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Jason Crawford
@jasoncrawford
Why are many people worried about the new #coronavirus, when the regular flu kills tens of thousands a year?

The concern is that it could be something like the 1918 influenza pandemic (aka the “Spanish Flu”).

It's the huge spike on this chart of US mortality rates:
The 1918 flu is estimated to have ultimately infected over 500 million people—almost a third of the world's population at the time—and killed an estimated 50 million. ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
Of course, #COVID19 is nowhere near that bad yet. The concern is that (a) it's spreading rapidly, and that (b) it may have a high case-fatality rate.

I am *not an expert* on these matters, and our knowledge on this is evolving rapidly, but here's what I understand so far:
Read 26 tweets
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Tyler Young
@tylerisyoung
CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19)
This is a roundup of what I found to be the most interesting & helpful sources on my journey into the void. #Coronavirus #Pandemic #Misinformation #CDC #CPP #WHO
This is for friends & family, but also to raise concern over media censorship & begin a discussion of what are best practices for both traditional & decentralized media outlets. This is a collection of sources to tell a larger story and spark interest.
Very few sources peer reviewed. Some behind paywalls. Some mainstream news. Some International News. Some in other languages (Use chrome). Some Harvard medical Journals. Some unverified. Some factually incorrect. Have some salt with your rice & beans.
Read 132 tweets
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EVent Horizon
@evdefender
Think someone is lying to you?

First check to see if they bothered to add any variability whatsoever in the model they are using to supposedly report actual numbers from a complex system.

#coronavirus
The mortality rate they want you to report is the - 0 day rate: Today's Confirmed Death total minus Today's Confirmed Case total.

This has not varied outside of 1/10th of 1% in the last 5 prints.

#coronavirus
But even a minor adjustment of a few days in the mortality rate paints an entirely different picture

#coronavirus

Read 322 tweets

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