Thread on the crisis facing Basra and why Iraq will collapse if Basra collapses. Demographics, climate change, water scarcity, poor infrastructure & governance, oil prices are all factors contributing to a disaster that has been bubbling under the surface for over a decade
Basra province is Iraq's financial lifeline, with oil exports from fields there contributing over 80% of government revenues. Population was estimated at 2.67m in 2013, for 2020 it is 4.72m. The city of Basra had services capacity for 1.2m and now it has 3m residents 
Zubayr district itself has more than 1m residents. Climate change has caused livestock deaths and crop losses, forcing people to leave farming behind. As water flows have dropped, saline water from the Gulf has been making its way upstream rendering water unfit for agriculture
Several suburbs (som are shanty towns) sprung up in last decade. They form the bulk of population increase. Because water flows in along Shatt al-Arab from N to S, the areas in circles tap into water, sewage, electricity lines before they reach the old city further south
Patronage, corruption, inefficiency, armed gangs and mafias, and political conflict have destroyed the city, with little development despite billions of $$$ generated for the country from the area. Water pollution that hospitalised over 100,000 people in 2018 is a permanent issue
At this girls school in Fayhaa, there are 4 barely working toilets for more than 670 students.
What water does come through the taps has high salinity and dangerous concentrations of bacteria and chemicals
Despite knowing that they could get sick due to the water, children have almost no leisure facilities and spend hours along the riverfront
The historic centre of Basra has canals filled with garbage and pollution. The smell is so bad it causes nausea and headaches
As marshes dry up and desertification intensifies, farmers and marsh dwellers are abandoning rural areas for the city in search of employment and services
With oil prices at historic lows, there will be even less effort into improving services. Protests have been taking place in Basra for several years now, with little results or impact. How long before Basrawis take matters further? Road blocks, ports, oil fields?
Water scarcity and climate change are forcing people into a corner. Government is not helping and people are becoming more desperate. Iraq cannot afford Basra collapsing
theguardian.com/global-develop…
theguardian.com/global-develop…
