Not enough time or data yet to prepare analysis of what happened and what’s next but I do have some questions on the Soleimani/Muhandis assassinations that will form the core of such thoughts 1/
The US had an opportunity almost every week for the past few years to kill/capture Soleimani, in similar settings and methods, why did they choose to do so now? What has changed for them to take such a step 2/
Muhandis was the operational head of a component of the Iraqi armed forces, how will the Iraqi government respond? What will happen to US-Iraqi relations, OIR, the Coalition, US troop presence in Iraq 3/
Did Trump understand the status of Soleimani and who provided the encouragement for such a strike? Has the US gamed out the repercussions and scenarios and decided it was worth the risks 4/
Iran has been prepared for replacing Soleimani, will it be an effective transition? Will there be an immediate response or could it be slower perhaps more docile, maybe his removal strengthening the civilian government 5/
If there is further reaction and reprisal, will it take place solely in Iraq? What happens to Iraq with a sudden shift in power away from pro-Iran groups? Could a new Iraqi government be formed in such instability and will it be effective 6/
Finally, can escalation be contained? There are a substantial number of targets for Iran and pro-Iran groups in the Middle East, and the US has shown it is willing to strike as well, who can restrain both from further tit-for-tat? Strategically, where are US/Iran heading 7/
