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For some of the same reasons I feel encouraged about Seattle, I am worried about NY. Even though a lot of the new cases reflect more testing, the number of positive tests as a share of all tests is rather high (somewhere between 9-16% in the most recent data vs. ~5-6% for WA).
Also, based both on empirical measures and my anecdotal experience, there wasn't a lot of voluntary social distancing in NYC until maybe last Monday (3/11) or Tuesday (3/12). Nor were public authorities especially quick to respond there.
While it may be fun to shame people for going to brunch last weekend or de Blasio for going to the gym on Monday, there seems to have been a lot of voluntary social distancing by then. The bigger problems were likely 7-10 days before then when NYC was operating at ~full speed.
Data on NYC hospital admissions for respiratory and influenza-like symptoms suggest the big spikes came between Sunday 3/7 and Thursday 3/12. It's been high though fairly steady since then. a816-health.nyc.gov/hdi/epiquery/v…
And considering there's a lag between transmission and when symptoms appear, it's likely there was a lot of transmission during the work week of Monday 3/2 and then the first part of the Monday 3/9 week until Hanks-Gobert Day on Wed. 3/11. NYC really acted a week or 2 too late.
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