1/ My takeaway from David Tepper interview on CNBC today (the only time I tune in annually):
a) Not time yet to take a lot of risk; if you see opportune stuff you know well and can identify temporary source/reason for selling pressure, be buying those specific things;
a) Not time yet to take a lot of risk; if you see opportune stuff you know well and can identify temporary source/reason for selling pressure, be buying those specific things;
2/
b) it will be time to take risk once there is a reasonable health plan & path fwd, and a reasonable fiscal plan. Not there yet. (this was his identical playbook in 09/10 - waited till problem was quantifiable, waited till fed program was sized to address quantified problem)
b) it will be time to take risk once there is a reasonable health plan & path fwd, and a reasonable fiscal plan. Not there yet. (this was his identical playbook in 09/10 - waited till problem was quantifiable, waited till fed program was sized to address quantified problem)
3/ First, on health front. Absolutely critical to get essential supplies to hospitals IMMEDIATELY. Not next week. Now. Ventilators, etc.
This is of critical importance.
This is of critical importance.
4/ Lombardy, Italy is experiencing a humanitarian crisis. Humanitarian crises (to first worlders) happen in 3rd world countries only. First world countries are not equipped for a humanitarian crisis, and no politician that wants to keep his job wants to preside over one.
5/ NYC data trend looks bad, tbh. There is no discernible difference to Italy - in fact, its worse. Could be testing, who knows. So we have to make those ventilators ASAP!!
We do not want to a humanitarian crisis in multiple major US cities, period.
We do not want to a humanitarian crisis in multiple major US cities, period.
6/ Health first. Address the f'ing health problem and we can get back to work.
On the economic front, if we lock down (happening in several states now), cases should peak in 3 weeks. Still a couple weeks likely after that as cases fall completely.
On the economic front, if we lock down (happening in several states now), cases should peak in 3 weeks. Still a couple weeks likely after that as cases fall completely.
7/ On the economic front, Congress will ultimately do something. The size of the package is directly correlated to the amount of time we are shut down.
A one month shut down (i think unrealistic given lack of coordination) probably warrants $1.5-2tn. Increases from there
A one month shut down (i think unrealistic given lack of coordination) probably warrants $1.5-2tn. Increases from there
8/ Interestingly, he referenced "social distancing" as part of the return to work plan multiple times.
I had not thought of the longer term implications of what this means until wondering why he kept stressing it. Clearly its become a key factor in how he's looking at things.
I had not thought of the longer term implications of what this means until wondering why he kept stressing it. Clearly its become a key factor in how he's looking at things.
9/ For example, if we re-emerge, are baseball parks going to be full in June? Possibly not. Will it take longer than expected for airlines to ramp utilization? Probably. Cruise ships? Sheesh, who knows. Even restaurants/other social to some degree could see lingering effects.
10/ Anyway, thats my read of it and I agree with basically everything he said, although I think shutdown is likely 20-30% longer than he seems to be estimating. I also worry a bit more about timing out of Congress, but given his position, he can't beat them up too much on TV
11/ With long term investing, its always best to invest in a credible plan. Once we have a credible plan laid off for dealing with this mess, then its time to increase risk again. Until then, its really just a trading market, imo.
Stay safe everyone and good luck!
Stay safe everyone and good luck!
*his or her job.
