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What we cover on #fsinsight member call today at 1pm ET.

- NY state outperforming best case Cuomo models
- Top 8 states (50% GDP) outperforming NY
- Why case growth marks relative bottom
- If Oct 08 (not Mar 09), what worked

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1/4
8 states are 50% of US GDP
- CA, TX, NY, FL, IL, PA, OH, NJ
- of these, NJ is doing worse than NY

NY state is 4,750 cases per 1mm people, or 1 in 200 has COVID-19 confirmed. Could be 1 in 20 based on missed tests.

2/4
Italy stock market, FTSE MIB started to outperform global stocks when new cases peaked on 3/21/2020.

- market focuses on cases because cases lead hospitalizatoins which lead mortality.

- thus, cases is key metric

- for US, we believe NY state is the key state to watch

3/4
The epicenter of bear markets 74, 00-03 and 08-09.

- '02, investors avoid epicenter
- 08-09, epicenter actually outperformed (except banks).

Even if only 'interim bottom,' we discuss what likely works

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4/4
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Thomas Lee
@fundstrat
This @barronsonline story hits at the heart of the issue asked by our clients—does the equity market have gas left in the tank? by @ben_levisohn and @NickJasinski4 @WSintelligencer @fundstrat
2/ helpful to compare US biz cycle to rest of world is “gross fixed investment to GDP”. US gross fixed investment (as % GDP) is 17% according to @CIA @CIAFactbook and is the same level as third world countries #venezuela #argentina #Afghanistan

Europe & Japan 300-600bp higher
3/ US has not been mid-cycle until private investment spend >27% of GDP. It’s 24% right now

Can’t say “never” since a valid argument is structural changes like cloud and millennials are shifting composition. But why is US spend at third world levels (see earlier tweet)?
Read 3 tweets
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Thomas Lee
@fundstrat
1/ CRYPTO
Definitely a positive development that #Bitcoin is now above its 200D mov. avg.
--Many consider P>200D as sign of $BTC in positive trend
--BTC acts significantly better P>200D, a win-ratio of 80% vs 36% when P<200D

source: data scientists @fundstrat_ken @AlexKernA
2/ Reminder that BTC generally generates all of its performance within 10D of any year.
--ex the top 10 days, BTC is down 25% annually since 2013
3/ For equities, ex-top 10 days, the S&P 500 only cedes 300bp per annum.
--the obvious conclusion is top 10 days way more influential for BTC than equities
--HODL the other 355 days?
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Prathik 🇮🇳
@traphikp
Thread

On Covid-19 Cases in India

#coronavirusindia #COVID2019 #covidindia
Case 1,2,3 -

Kerala, 3 Students who returned from China in early februray.

All 3 have recovered.
Case 4,

(Mar 2)
Hyderabad, techie working for a bengaluru firm who returned from Dubai

Case 5,

(Mar 2)
Delhi, Person who returned from Italy
Read 549 tweets
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Alex
@classicmacro
Chile is Latam's most prominent success story, because of free market economics.

Historically below average, Chile now has the 2nd highest GDP per capita in Latam ex-Caribe.

Capitalism works. Socialism doesn't. ImageImageImageImage
But Chile is now in chaos as over a million Chileans protest in the streets, most peacefully. But there is violence, there is looting, there are buildings set on fire.

ImageImageImageImage
As usual, law enforcement forces are no saints, quite the contrary. Violence meets violence. Violence breeds violence. And Chilean law enforcement has quite a terrible track record of repression.

Image
Read 28 tweets
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Filomena Rocha
@Filomen03258997
6. Further Proof. The Truth may be long, but it always prevails.
Who fights against #Syria, against the Govt of #Syria & #Syrian Army?
As you can see, they are #Not Syrians!
Any question?
#ForeignTerrorists #RegimeChange #Imperialism #WarCriminal #Lies #Conspiracy
#Hypocrisy
1. Further Proof. The Truth may be long, but it always prevails.
Who fights against #Syria, against the Govt of #Syria & #Syrian Army?
As you can see, they are #Not Syrians!
Any question?
2. Further Proof. The Truth may be long, but it always prevails.
Who fights against #Syria, against the Govt of #Syria & #Syrian Army?
As you can see, they are #Not Syrians!
Any question?
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1152144…
Read 172 tweets
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Funter
@Funter21510910
State of the Economy through Charts and Tables

As the GDP growth (at 5%) slowed to a 25 quarter low in Q1 of FY 2020, let us examine the various economic indicators to understand the 'real' state of the Indian economy. Here is a thread. 1/13
1) 2-Wheeler Sales - dipped by ~17% in July, 2019. Motorcycle sales fell by 19% while Scooter sales declined by 12%. Scooters sell more in urban India. Motorcycles sell in both urban as well as rural India. The data shows distress in both India and Bharat. 2/13
2) Car sales - saw a massive YoY volume degrowth of 30.3%. Car purchase is a discretionary spending. People buy cars only when they are assured of future economic prospects. It shows that urban economic sentiment is at rock bottom levels. 3/13
Read 19 tweets
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Kishore C Iyer🇮🇳
@Kishoreciyer1
#GDP #ArvindSubramanian
Now that I have invoked the names of the great "Harvard" educated person. Let me break down what he has actually done! And as he claims he wouldn't have taken ~6 months to complete this paper, max would be a month. Ok diving into this... 1/n
I'm giving a layman's explanation of this so I will refrain from using complicated terms:
1. Get the Revised GDP growth rates from 2011-2017, do a correlation with all publicly available data like auto sales, credit growth, petroleum consumption, IIP data.. etc 2/n
Conclude that the correlation levels are not high enough
2. Use the same GDP data and find out the growth rates vs the same set of data & conclude that the relationship is haphazard (which is normal)
3. Using above two initial tests conclude that GDP is overestimated 3/n
Read 14 tweets
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C. Shawn Eib
@realShawnEib
This is the type of absolute denial of facts and reality occupying the #MAGA crown. There is no where in America, not one state, where the average gas price is not higher, generally by between 40-50 cents, according to the AAA, not known for faking basic data for partisanship.
The link to where you can see this for yourself is provided. I just looked at all fifty states. No state has longer cost gas today than a year ago. And for this particular statement to be true, the cost would actually need to be approx $1.30-$1.50 cheaper than current averages.
For many places, that would mean it being down by almost 50% or more from the average price. Wherever this half of gas sale is, I’d love to know. So there are two options here: this person lives in the one place in America where gas prices are at $1.75 or so, or they are wrong.
Read 19 tweets

Trending hashtags

#NY7 #GDP #Iraq #BlueWave2018 #HumanShields #consumerconfidence #Confidence #ConConTracker #Iran #ForeignTerrorists #Midterms2018 #kurdish #NoConConTracker #NY17 #NY02 #HMG #NY25 #NY1 #Maharashtra #Brexit #inflation #Trump #BalancedBudgetAmendment #BendedKnee #Absentee

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