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Thomas Lee
@fundstrat
, 3 tweets, 4 min read Read on Twitter
This @barronsonline story hits at the heart of the issue asked by our clients—does the equity market have gas left in the tank? by @ben_levisohn and @NickJasinski4 @WSintelligencer @fundstrat
2/ helpful to compare US biz cycle to rest of world is “gross fixed investment to GDP”. US gross fixed investment (as % GDP) is 17% according to @CIA @CIAFactbook and is the same level as third world countries #venezuela #argentina #Afghanistan

Europe & Japan 300-600bp higher
3/ US has not been mid-cycle until private investment spend >27% of GDP. It’s 24% right now

Can’t say “never” since a valid argument is structural changes like cloud and millennials are shifting composition. But why is US spend at third world levels (see earlier tweet)?
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#venezuela #argentina #Afghanistan

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Thomas Lee
@fundstrat
1/ CRYPTO
Definitely a positive development that #Bitcoin is now above its 200D mov. avg.
--Many consider P>200D as sign of $BTC in positive trend
--BTC acts significantly better P>200D, a win-ratio of 80% vs 36% when P<200D

source: data scientists @fundstrat_ken @AlexKernA
2/ Reminder that BTC generally generates all of its performance within 10D of any year.
--ex the top 10 days, BTC is down 25% annually since 2013
3/ For equities, ex-top 10 days, the S&P 500 only cedes 300bp per annum.
--the obvious conclusion is top 10 days way more influential for BTC than equities
--HODL the other 355 days?
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Loose_Bull
@loosebool
#Story ...
1.’Dada ‘ was actually the name of the Dutch company that imported Fake Ghee Called ‘vanaspati ghee ‘ into India in the 1930s as a cheap substitute for Pure ‘desi ghee ‘ Which was prepared from cow or Buffalo milk in India 🤔
2. Desi Ghee was locally made product sustaining Indian Economy-on other hand-So Called ‘Vanaspati ghee’was a type of vegetable shortening made up of hydrogenated or highly saturated vegetable oil and made to just’mimic desi Ghee’🤔!

It was a Fake Product to fool the Indians 😎
3. Proper ‘Desi Ghee ‘ was expensive & Lever Brothers, now Unilever (Hindustan Unilever in India), knew there was a market for a substitute for desi ghee, since many Indians could barely afford Ghee in those days 😨
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Vikram Waman Karve
@vikramwkarve
#Story
“Kiwi-Indian” Tales – The Girl at Lake Tekapo
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Henrik Zeberg
@HenrikZeberg
Good morning to all 😀Interesting weeks/months ahead of us as my deflationary scenario plays out. Will have massive consequences for currencies, gold, equities etc. I keep my subscribers updated closely on Daily/Weekly updates. But for now - stay tuned for some #HZupdates 👍
"#Deflation" or "#Disinflation" have been my call for a long time. We are not out of Kondratiev's winter yet. We haven't seen the all events which unfold during K's winter. Still to come Pension Funds Crisis, Currency Crisis, Run from Paper Money ...and War #HZupdates
And "#Deflation" outlook is clear in the charts imo. I look primarily to #AUDUSD and #Copper for guidance. Observe this chart of #Copper. Major ABC pattern. Length of C can be set by the irregular pattern indicating low in Copper below 2008-levels = deflation in 2019 #HZupdates
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mcm-ct.com
@mcm_ct
1/
VOL CONTROL/VOL TARGETING

What that got to do with the markets right now?

Well, inverted $VIX has been lagging the #equity index’s and that is a big deal. The reason it is a big deal is because the of VOL TARGETING
2/
Volatility targeting/control strategies aim to control risk by BUYING $VIX as $SPX drops and liquidating $SPX as $VIX rises.

When $SPX makes new lows but $VIX does not the implication is these insurance products continue to buy #ES_F futures while sell $VIX
3/

So what so we have here? We have an entire sector that has built a model where a divergent $VIX = increased $SPX buying via #ES_F futures.

This strategy is roughly $1 tillion in notional and like $SKEW is showing, hopelessly underhedged vs a downside break
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Ask An Entomologist
@BugQuestions
I think this problem hits at the heart of the issue when it comes to Eckbom's, because it's often not about infestations.

This deserves it's own thread to describe how complicated this problem is, and how poorly understood it is.
So...first, I believe that these people are accurately describing their perceptions of medical issues.

Urban IPM Extension people can go through samples to find insects, inspect homes for infestations (bed bugs, fleas, etc), get someone to do skin scrapings for Scabies, etc.
However, after that, they need to be passed onto a doctor.

Often times, attempts at self-treatment can cause skin irritation. Pesticide poisoning can also cause crawling sensations.

Brain tumors, autoimmune diseases, even cold weather can do this as well.
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Far Left Hate Watch
@FarLeftHate
This thread is about the #SelfID debate and why #labourlosingwomen is going to be such a massive problem for #Corbyn and his ever increasingly lunatic supporters. We have three biological genders, male, female and hermaphrodite but the % of hermaphrodites is tiny. 1/11
Now Eddie Izzard is part of the NEC of #UKLabour this issue is going to re-ignite rather than disappear as he recounted in his memoir of how he deliberately broke the law getting changed in a female bathroom: 2/11
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But why is there so much controversy about all of this and why is it justified? #UKLabour has alienated traditional #Labour female voters about having to compete with men who have decided to describe their gender as female #SelfID #labourlosingwomen 3/11
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