Thread by @AndrewSErickson

As #Beijing prepares to impose a sweeping #NationalSecurityLaw formally invalidating core #1C2S protections, risks are mounting for #HongKongers & their future.

So I’m standing up a #HongKong #WatchFloor:

bit.ly/HongKongWatch

Stay tuned for updates!

andrewerickson.com/2020/05/the-ho…

The clock is ticking toward an unclear, but clearly worrisome, future for #HongKong.

To shine a spotlight on these critical issues, I’m standing up this virtual #WatchFloor.

I’ll improve & update it to the best of my ability, & welcome suggestions via andrewerickson.com/contact.

As #Beijing prepares to impose a sweeping #NationalSecurityLaw that in effect invalidates core #OneCountryTwoSystems-promised protections, risks are mounting for #HongKongers.

Under assault: some of their most cherished values & freedoms.

andrewerickson.com/2020/05/the-ho…

#1C2S → #1C1S

Facing internal pressures, determined to intimidate still-free #Taiwan, & perceiving a world distracted with #coronavirus, recession, and discord, #XiJinping appears determined to seize the opportunity to resolve #HongKong’s status in a tragic direction.

andrewerickson.com/2020/05/the-ho…

As initial actions unfold in #HongKong, such as assertively #teargassing a relatively limited #protest, #Xi & his #Leninist subordinates are closely gauging #international #reactions.

They will be greatly emboldened by any perceived lack of response.

bit.ly/HongKongWatch

The best defense of #AsiasWorldCity & its future starts with the outside world demonstrating unfailing awareness, concern, & determination to impose consequences.

andrewerickson.com/2020/05/the-ho…

#HK
#HKers
#HongKong
#HongKongers
#HongKongProtests
#HongKongNeedsHelp
#StandWithHongKong

Having abandoned Deng-Jiang-Hu’s more cautious approach of selectively isolating “enemies” & mobilizing others against them for new era of aggression against many neighbors & other nations simultaneously, Xi risks distraction & vulnerabilities of his own.

bit.ly/HongKongWatch

On a personal note, I never imagined any of this happening over 20 years ago when I interned for a long summer @USAinHKMacau.

The internship was an incredible experience for me.

It was in reviewing files there that I first learned of @NavalWarCollege.

andrewerickson.com/2020/05/the-ho…

More importantly, I got to know #HongKong firsthand & meet many #HongKongers.

I lived in #ShaTin.

It was peaceful then, with clusters of shops around #NewTownPlaza & a beautiful waterfront promenade where the Shing Mun River rolled with impressive waves during a #typhoon.

I enjoyed the most interesting #commute that I will probably ever have:

A minibus to the storied #PeninsulaHotel, the #StarFerry across #HongKong Harbor, & a jungly ascent to 26 Garden Road where I always kept a cool, dry suit jacket ready in my office.

andrewerickson.com/2020/05/the-ho…

I supported myself by teaching #English conversation to elementary school pupils most evenings.

Their parents invariably had better English; it was their children’s third language after #Cantonese at home and #Mandarin increasingly emphasized at school.

bit.ly/HongKongWatch

That summer & on subsequent research trips, I’ve traversed much of beautiful #HongKong—from its teeming harbor & container port, to the Stock Exchange & high-floor financial offices of Central, to the bustling @HKUniversity & @CUHKofficial campuses, to crowded #MongKok markets...

... & jam-packed #MTR trains toward #Shenzhen, to the Big Buddha & outlying islands, to the #SaiKungPeninsula’s splendid coastal trails & the calm of #VictoriaPeak (the very summit, far beyond the tram terminus).

bit.ly/HongKongWatch

#HongKongNeedsHelp
#KeepHongKongBeautiful

So enthusiastic did I remain about #AsiasWorldCity that after next year studying in Japan, when I reported to a #WhiteHouse internship @OMBPress, the wonderfully wise old secretary in the Office of Legislative Affairs immediately nicknamed me “#HongKong.”

bit.ly/HongKongWatch

Witnessing the vibrant intercultural dynamism of #AsiasWorldCity firsthand has been among my most amazing and formative experiences.

Today, in these trying, tragic times, my heart goes out to #HongKong.

bit.ly/HongKongWatch

andrewerickson.com/2020/05/the-ho…

#HongKong’s long been a unique & special place.

I refuse to give up hope that it can somehow remain so:

Most importantly by far for the sake of all who call it home...but also because of the way it can touch the lives of even temporary visitors like me.

andrewerickson.com/2020/05/the-ho…

Last year, in an article on #Xi’s #GrandStrategy for #China, I suggested why #HongKong has emerged as target of CCP control after decades of systematic restraint.

warontherocks.com/2019/10/make-c…

Now @brianfonghk explains @Diplomat_APAC the risky #rubicon #Xi & his #Party-#State apparatus are steaming across:

“The decision to push for a #NationalSecurityLaw, bypassing the local legislative process entirely, will entangle #HongKong, #China, & the West in a vicious cycle.”

#MyTake:

#Xi and the #Party apparatus he’s #mobilized know all this.

They’re increasingly determined to act harder, sooner & absorb costs of their aggression up-front.

The coming days will be very important. The world’s attention must be on #HongKong.

bit.ly/HongKongWatch