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Big #ONI reveal:

#China ALREADY has its own 355+ ship #navy, & within a decade will exceed that benchmark by 70 #ships!

At the end of 2020 China will have 360 battle force ships vs. @USNavy’s 297—over 60 more!

andrewerickson.com/2020/03/new-ed…

@ConsWahoo @JerryHendrixII @alessionaval
#ONI: In 2025 #China’s #Navy will have 400 ships. In 2030, China’s Navy will have 425 ships.

Even if @USNavy reaches its current goal of 355+ by 2030, China’s Navy could still have 70 more ships.

bit.ly/PLAN-2030

This math is truly unforgiving!

andrewerickson.com/2020/03/new-ed…
Given @USNavy’s dispersed global responsibilities vs. #China’s concentrated focus on being able to fight/win regional war over a sovereignty dispute, potentially vs. US & 1+ allies/partners, a sufficiently-sized #USNavy is required to preserve American security & vital interests.
#ONI projections come 3 years after those in @NavalWarCollege @ChinaMaritime's @NavalInstitute @USNIBooks vol.

amazon.com/Chinese-Naval-…

In January 2017, we posited 415 #China #Navy ships in 2030. Now #ONI says +10: 425!

See chs. by CAPT Fanell & @SCheneyPeters + RADM McDevitt!
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Andrew Erickson 艾立信
@AndrewSErickson
Latest CRS Report—“#China #Naval Modernization: Implications for @USNavy Capabilities”—Has PLAN ship #s projections from Office of Naval #Intelligence!
bit.ly/PLAN-2030

Check out Table 2 for RARE info—PRC battle force ship #s for 2020, 2025 & 2030!
andrewerickson.com/2020/03/new-ed…
Table 2 tallies total #China #Navy battle force #ships!

bit.ly/PLAN-2030

2020: 360 (vs. @USNavy total of ~297)

2025: 400 (vs. ?)

2030: 425 (vs. ?)

andrewerickson.com/2020/03/new-ed…

#PLAN has more small ships; #USN has most advanced, big ships. But #s matter & PLAN progressing!
Wow! See rare public *projections by Office of #Naval #Intelligence: #China #Navy Battle Force #Ships, 2020-25-30

bit.ly/PLAN-2030

SSBN: 4↗6↗8
SSN: 7↗10↗13
SSK: 55→55→55
CV, CG, DDG: 43↗55↗65
FFG, DDC: 102↗120↗135

TOTAL: 360↗400↗425

andrewerickson.com/2020/03/new-ed…
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Andrew Erickson 艾立信
@AndrewSErickson
Stuck @ home wondering where China & world are headed? Read #TheChinaQuestions—36 @Harvard @FairbankCenter chs. ed. by Profs. @MichaelSzonyi & Rudolf!

Order: amazon.com/gp/product/067…

English: fairbank.fas.harvard.edu/china-question…

中文: bit.ly/FairbankCenter

한국어: bit.ly/ChinaQuestions
See great chapters by Profs. Elizabeth Perry, Joe Fewsmith, Rod MacFarquhar, Mark Elliott, Ya-Wen Lei, Arunabh Ghosh, Yuhua Wang, Arne Westad, Robert Ross, Ian Johnston, Steve Goldstein, Ezra Vogel, Richard Cooper, Dwight Perkins, Meg Rithmire, Mark Wu, Tony Saich, Nara Dillon...
..Michael McElroy, Karen Thornber, Susan Greenhalgh, James Robson, Leonard W. J. van der Kuijp, Bill Alford, Bill Kirby, Michael Puett, Rowan Flad, Peter Bol, Wai-Yee Li, David Der-wei Wang, Jie Li, Stephen Owen & Paul Cohen!

Honored to join them in this @FairbankCenter project!
Read 51 tweets
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Andrew Erickson 艾立信
@AndrewSErickson
"UK, France & Germany on same virus trajectory as Italy...@FT data analysis shows that many countries grappling with rising #coronavirus cases are on a similar trajectory—& potentially facing the same challenge—as Italy." ft.com/content/986b53… See the careful work @jburnmurdoch
"In most western countries case #s have been increasing by around 33% a day. This is as true of the UK, France & Germany as it is of #Italy. The latter is simply further down the path. In the city-states of #HongKong & #Singapore the rates of increase appear to have been been..."
"relatively well contained through the quick introduction of strict control measures. #Japan has also reported a flatter case trajectory than western countries, though views differ over whether this is the result of measures such as school closures or simply due to the low #s..."
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A carrier-based AWACS is a big first for China, so the time needed for the industrial phase & first flight of the prototype could be much longer. With this in mind, an educated guess would put the roll-out of the first Chinese AWACS between the end of 2019 & the end of 2020.
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