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Latest CRS Report—“#China #Naval Modernization: Implications for @USNavy Capabilities”—Has PLAN ship #s projections from Office of Naval #Intelligence!

Check out Table 2 for RARE info—PRC battle force ship #s for 2020, 2025 & 2030!…
Table 2 tallies total #China #Navy battle force #ships!

2020: 360 (vs. @USNavy total of ~297)

2025: 400 (vs. ?)

2030: 425 (vs. ?)…

#PLAN has more small ships; #USN has most advanced, big ships. But #s matter & PLAN progressing!
Wow! See rare public *projections by Office of #Naval #Intelligence: #China #Navy Battle Force #Ships, 2020-25-30

SSBN: 4↗6↗8
SSN: 7↗10↗13
SSK: 55→55→55
CV, CG, DDG: 43↗55↗65
FFG, DDC: 102↗120↗135

TOTAL: 360↗400↗425…
Further insights:

"#China’s #navy is, by far, the #largest of any country in East Asia, & within the past few years it has surpassed the @USNavy in #s of battle force ships, meaning the types of ships that count toward the quoted size of the U.S. Navy."…
"#ONI states that at the end of 2020, #China will have 360 battle force #ships, compared w/ a projected total of 297 for the @USNavy at the end of FY2020.

ONI projects that China will have 400 battle force ships by 2025 & 425 by 2030."

See table here:
"#China’s #naval #ships, #aircraft & #weapons are now much more modern & capable than they were at the start of the 1990s & are now comparable in many respects to those of Western navies.”

Further reading:……
"#ONI states that '#Chinese #naval ship design & material quality is in many cases comparable to [that of] #USN [@USNavy] ships, & #China is quickly closing the gap in any areas of deficiency."…

Seems so!……
PRC "naval shipbuilding programs were previously dependent on foreign suppliers for some ship components. ONI..states.'almost all weapons & sensors on [PLAN] ships are produced in-country & China no longer relies on Russia/other countries for any significant naval ship systems.'"
"#ONI states that '#China’s #submarine force continues to grow at a low rate, though with substantially more-capable submarines replacing older units.

Current expansion at submarine production yards could allow higher future production numbers.'"…

"#ONI projects that #China’s #submarine force will grow from a total of 66 boats (4 SSBNs, 7 SSNs, and 55 SSs) in 2020 to 76 boats (8 SSBNs, 13 SSNs, and 55 SSs) in 2030."

See attached chart for details!
"ONI states that 'nuclear submarines are solely produced at Huludao Shipyard & typically undergo 2-4 years of outfitting & sea-trials b/f becoming operational. Since 2006, 8 nuclear submarines have reached IOC [initial operational capability], for an average of one every 15 mo.'"
ONI: "Diesel-Electric submarines are produced at 2 shipyards & typically undergo approximately 1 year of outfitting & sea-trials before becoming operational."…

Attached table offers context by showing SSK #s 2005-19: numbers ~50, but quality/diversity up!
"#China’s third #carrier, the #Type002, is under construction; #ONI expects it to enter service by 2024."…

Photo courtesy of @ChinaPowerCSIS @CSIS!

Check out their great work here:…

Additional background:…
"#ONI states that #Type055 #ships are being built by 2 shipyards, & that multiple ships in the class are currently under construction."

See @ChinaMaritime Report #5—#PLAN’s Type 055 #Cruiser & Imp. for Future #MarSecEnvironment!…
"China since the early 1990s has also put into service multiple new classes of indigenously built frigates, the most the Jiangkai II (#Type054A) class...ONI states that 30 Type 054As entered service 2008-19 & additional Type 054As are currently under construction."
"China is also building a new type of corvette (i.e., a light frigate, or FFL) called the #Jiangdao class or #Type056... #ONI states that as of February 2020, >50 had entered service & another 15 were under construction."…

I've toured one. Small but fast!
"On September 25, 2019, #China launched... the 1st of a new type of #amphibious assault #ship called the #Type075... displacement of 30-40,000 tons... #ONI states that as of February 2020, three Type 075s, including the 1st one, were under construction."…
"...about 65% of the increase since 2005 in the number of Chinese navy ships shown in the table...resulted from increases in missile-armed fast patrol craft starting in 2009 (a net increase of 35 ships) & corvettes starting in 2014 (42 ships)... smallest surface combatants shown"
"The net 35-ship increase in missile-armed fast patrol craft was due to the construction between 2004-09 of 60 new Houbei (#Type022) fast attack craft...The 42-ship increase in corvettes is due to the Jingdao (#Type056) corvette program discussed earlier."…
ONI: "'a significant portion of China’s Battle Force consists of the large# of new FFLs recently built for the PLAN.'...most of the remaining increase since 2005 in the # of Chinese navy ships shown [=from] increases in DDGs (12 ships), FFGs (11 ships), & amphib ships (17 ships)"
"...for many of the types of Chinese ships shown in the table, the percentage of the ships accounted for by more-capable modern designs was growing over time, even if the total number of ships for those types was changing little."…
"The result is an apples-vs.-oranges comparison, b/c the Chinese figure excludes certain ship types, such as auxiliary & support ships, while the @USNavy figure includes auxiliary & support ships but excludes patrol craft."

Apples vs. Mandarin Oranges...
"Table 2 shows comparative #s of Chinese & US #Battle #Force #Ships... that count toward the quoted size of the #Navy. For China, the BFS total excludes the missile-armed coastal patrol craft shown in Table 1, but includes auxiliary & support ships that are not shown in Table 1."
"Compared to the comparison shown in Table 1, the comparison Table 2 is closer to being an apples-to-apples comparison of the 2 #navies#numbers of #ships.

Even so, it is important to keep in mind the differences in composition between the 2 navies."
"The @USNavy, for example, has many more aircraft carriers, nuclear-powered submarines, and cruisers and destroyers, while China’s navy has many more diesel attack submarines, frigates, and corvettes."…
"the total # of ships in a a 1D measure that leaves out numerous other factors...[BUT] examination of the trends over time in the relative #s of ships can shed some light on how the relative balance of US & Chinese naval capabilities might be changing over time."
PS—Interesting to compare new #ONI projections w/ those in @NavalWarCollege @ChinaMaritime's @NavalInstitute @USNIBooks vol!…

Table here forecasts 415 #China #Navy ships in 2030. #ONI says +10: 425!

See chs by CAPT Fanell & @SCheneyPeters + RADM McDevitt
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