Thread by @AndrewSErickson

Latest CRS Report—“#China #Naval Modernization: Implications for @USNavy Capabilities”—Has PLAN ship #s projections from Office of Naval #Intelligence!
bit.ly/PLAN-2030

Check out Table 2 for RARE info—PRC battle force ship #s for 2020, 2025 & 2030!
andrewerickson.com/2020/03/new-ed…

Table 2 tallies total #China #Navy battle force #ships!

bit.ly/PLAN-2030

2020: 360 (vs. @USNavy total of ~297)

2025: 400 (vs. ?)

2030: 425 (vs. ?)

andrewerickson.com/2020/03/new-ed…

#PLAN has more small ships; #USN has most advanced, big ships. But #s matter & PLAN progressing!

Wow! See rare public *projections by Office of #Naval #Intelligence: #China #Navy Battle Force #Ships, 2020-25-30

bit.ly/PLAN-2030

SSBN: 4↗6↗8
SSN: 7↗10↗13
SSK: 55→55→55
CV, CG, DDG: 43↗55↗65
FFG, DDC: 102↗120↗135

TOTAL: 360↗400↗425

andrewerickson.com/2020/03/new-ed…

Further insights:

"#China’s #navy is, by far, the #largest of any country in East Asia, & within the past few years it has surpassed the @USNavy in #s of battle force ships, meaning the types of ships that count toward the quoted size of the U.S. Navy."

andrewerickson.com/2020/03/new-ed…

"#ONI states that at the end of 2020, #China will have 360 battle force #ships, compared w/ a projected total of 297 for the @USNavy at the end of FY2020.

ONI projects that China will have 400 battle force ships by 2025 & 425 by 2030."

bit.ly/PLAN-2030

See table here:

"#China’s #naval #ships, #aircraft & #weapons are now much more modern & capable than they were at the start of the 1990s & are now comparable in many respects to those of Western navies.”

bit.ly/PLAN-2030

Further reading: cimsec.org/chinese-shipbu…

amazon.com/Chinese-Naval-…

"#ONI states that '#Chinese #naval ship design & material quality is in many cases comparable to [that of] #USN [@USNavy] ships, & #China is quickly closing the gap in any areas of deficiency."

andrewerickson.com/2020/03/new-ed…

Seems so!

thediplomat.com/2017/04/chines…

nationalinterest.org/feature/chinas…

PRC "naval shipbuilding programs were previously dependent on foreign suppliers for some ship components. ONI..states.'almost all weapons & sensors on [PLAN] ships are produced in-country & China no longer relies on Russia/other countries for any significant naval ship systems.'"

"#ONI states that '#China’s #submarine force continues to grow at a low rate, though with substantially more-capable submarines replacing older units.

Current expansion at submarine production yards could allow higher future production numbers.'"

andrewerickson.com/2020/03/new-ed…

#Navy

"#ONI projects that #China’s #submarine force will grow from a total of 66 boats (4 SSBNs, 7 SSNs, and 55 SSs) in 2020 to 76 boats (8 SSBNs, 13 SSNs, and 55 SSs) in 2030."

bit.ly/PLAN-2030

See attached chart for details!

"ONI states that 'nuclear submarines are solely produced at Huludao Shipyard & typically undergo 2-4 years of outfitting & sea-trials b/f becoming operational. Since 2006, 8 nuclear submarines have reached IOC [initial operational capability], for an average of one every 15 mo.'"

ONI: "Diesel-Electric submarines are produced at 2 shipyards & typically undergo approximately 1 year of outfitting & sea-trials before becoming operational."

andrewerickson.com/2020/03/new-ed…

Attached table offers context by showing SSK #s 2005-19: numbers ~50, but quality/diversity up!

"#China’s third #carrier, the #Type002, is under construction; #ONI expects it to enter service by 2024."

andrewerickson.com/2020/03/new-ed…

Photo courtesy of @ChinaPowerCSIS @CSIS!

Check out their great work here: chinapower.csis.org/china-carrier-…

Additional background: chinapower.csis.org/aircraft-carri…

"#ONI states that #Type055 #ships are being built by 2 shipyards, & that multiple ships in the class are currently under construction."

bit.ly/PLAN-2030

See @ChinaMaritime Report #5—#PLAN’s Type 055 #Cruiser & Imp. for Future #MarSecEnvironment!

andrewerickson.com/2020/02/new-cm…

"China since the early 1990s has also put into service multiple new classes of indigenously built frigates, the most recent..is the Jiangkai II (#Type054A) class...ONI states that 30 Type 054As entered service 2008-19 &..no additional Type 054As are currently under construction."

"China is also building a new type of corvette (i.e., a light frigate, or FFL) called the #Jiangdao class or #Type056... #ONI states that as of February 2020, >50 had entered service & another 15 were under construction."

andrewerickson.com/2020/03/new-ed…

I've toured one. Small but fast!

"On September 25, 2019, #China launched... the 1st of a new type of #amphibious assault #ship called the #Type075... displacement of 30-40,000 tons... #ONI states that as of February 2020, three Type 075s, including the 1st one, were under construction."

andrewerickson.com/2020/03/new-ed…

"...about 65% of the increase since 2005 in the number of Chinese navy ships shown in the table...resulted from increases in missile-armed fast patrol craft starting in 2009 (a net increase of 35 ships) & corvettes starting in 2014 (42 ships)... smallest surface combatants shown"

"The net 35-ship increase in missile-armed fast patrol craft was due to the construction between 2004-09 of 60 new Houbei (#Type022) fast attack craft...The 42-ship increase in corvettes is due to the Jingdao (#Type056) corvette program discussed earlier."
andrewerickson.com/2020/03/new-ed…

ONI: "'a significant portion of China’s Battle Force consists of the large# of new FFLs recently built for the PLAN.'...most of the remaining increase since 2005 in the # of Chinese navy ships shown [=from] increases in DDGs (12 ships), FFGs (11 ships), & amphib ships (17 ships)"

"...for many of the types of Chinese ships shown in the table, the percentage of the ships accounted for by more-capable modern designs was growing over time, even if the total number of ships for those types was changing little."

andrewerickson.com/2020/03/new-ed…

"The result is an apples-vs.-oranges comparison, b/c the Chinese figure excludes certain ship types, such as auxiliary & support ships, while the @USNavy figure includes auxiliary & support ships but excludes patrol craft."

bit.ly/PLAN-2030

Apples vs. Mandarin Oranges...

"Table 2 shows comparative #s of Chinese & US #Battle #Force #Ships... that count toward the quoted size of the #Navy. For China, the BFS total excludes the missile-armed coastal patrol craft shown in Table 1, but includes auxiliary & support ships that are not shown in Table 1."

"Compared to the comparison shown in Table 1, the comparison Table 2 is closer to being an apples-to-apples comparison of the 2 #navies’ #numbers of #ships.

Even so, it is important to keep in mind the differences in composition between the 2 navies."

bit.ly/PLAN-2030

"The @USNavy, for example, has many more aircraft carriers, nuclear-powered submarines, and cruisers and destroyers, while China’s navy has many more diesel attack submarines, frigates, and corvettes."

andrewerickson.com/2020/03/new-ed…

"the total # of ships in a navy..is a 1D measure that leaves out numerous other factors...[BUT] examination of the trends over time in the relative #s of ships can shed some light on how the relative balance of US & Chinese naval capabilities might be changing over time."
#THREAD

PS—Interesting to compare new #ONI projections w/ those in @NavalWarCollege @ChinaMaritime's @NavalInstitute @USNIBooks vol!

amazon.com/Chinese-Naval-…

Table here forecasts 415 #China #Navy ships in 2030. #ONI says +10: 425!

See chs by CAPT Fanell & @SCheneyPeters + RADM McDevitt