Surely every serious national security strategist understands the distinction btwn Govts Geopolitical decisions and th military's detailed scenario planning & action program. A govt can decided on basis of expected value of outcome or worst case scenarios-the latter is paralyzing
2/ns The critical issue in China-India conflict is that,as of now (2020), #China controls the #escalatory ladder. So India's #National #Security Apparatus has to make assumptions about when and how #CCPpla will escalate, if it loses the first few steps on its escalatory ladder!
3/ns The worst case scenario for us is therefore the one in which after loosing previous escalations, #CCP China escalates to a full fledged war/attack on India, by shifting US-facing troops and highest quality equipment towards India. This has proved paralyzing for past Govts!🤔
4/ns The worst case scenario of full scale aggression by #China, is 1 in which question of #alliance with #USA becomes relevant. Two questions arise, (1) How likely is such an eventuality, & (2) Will #US as 21st C ally, be willing or able to make credible commitments?(deterrence)
5/ns Several of us assumed till few yrs ago, we could establish hard deterrence, the probability of #CCP escalating to a full scale war would be reduced enough for us to not need a US alliance. Post Xi 👆🏼this assumption & post-Trump, credibility of any alliance, are questionable!
7/ns Expect #CCP11 to unleash all his dogs🐕 from #Stratocracy in West, to 🤑in north & south to Terrorists👿 in East, to attack India. #GOI must start exploring a 21st version of Indo-Soviet treaty with the USA. Also time for dramatic economic liberalization(-CCPchina) & reform
8/ns Learn from history(Adm Arun Prakash):…
9/ns Comprehensive analysis, but a little too dismissive of #Terroristan's historical inventiveness in pursuing #Jehad (never underestimate the enemy):
11/ns Good review of current Chinese strategic thinking on India…
12/ns #IndiaNS #NSstrategy (In my judgement) the primary usefulness of India dominating IOR choke points is to undermine/break #China's escalation dominance below the nuclear threshold ie it can act as final non-nuclear deterrence option below nuclear.…
13/ns #IndiaNS #NSsecurity and therefore it also requires,to some extent, an integration of conventional and nuclear deterrence strategy (my @fsidelhi colleague @brigarunsahgal has previously proposed the latter). [#Beware This is serious war planning not a twitter/facebook war)
14/ns Nat Sec Strategy can't b defined by looking at partial picture as in…. India would only attack commercial shipping, if China attacked Indian heartland. The #capability to blockade 2 straits would be critical to deter #PLA frm escalating beyond border
15/ns Closing off Entrances to IO for enemy vessels & hunting down enemy targets in IO could be first response to any attack on Indian military targets in penensular India. Sinking commercial vessels can only be a response to attack on civilian areas! #Capability=>#Deterence
16/ns "Balancer in IO" is fine sentence for use in international seminars, but what India needs is a naval capability to close the IO choke pts in response to Chinese attack on Indian C3I, with tacit approval of USA, Japan & Australia, but w/o direct military support from them.
17/ns (also see tweet below it)
18/ns We no longer have the luxury of time to postpone difficult decisions. Have to accelerate our actions on all three fronts: Economic, Military & Geopolitical/Geoeconomic if we want to check-mate this multipronged, multidimensional threat:
19/ns #CCPbully #PLAmafia (Understand the #Psychology of a #Bully to deal with him effectively):
20/ns India must b prepared for evry move up #escalatory #ladder by #China, but can't initiate such move, except if existence as modern nation is threatened. We hv to b prepared to meet 1st few steps of escalation, but need US partnership to enhance credibility of final 2 steps
21/ns #NationalSecurity #experts expected a gradual ramping up of #CCPpla #aggressiveness over next decade. They were unprepared for th speed & audacity with which #ChairmanXi has ramped up aggression. Bravery & sacrifice of our soldiers has saved us! Prepare to make ec sacrifice
22/ns Need to integrate micro/operational & strategic planning by analyzing the escalatory ladder;Threats in/from (1) grey area btwn LACind & LACch, (2) Ch controlled territory beyond LACch (3) from Tibet, Xinjiang as whole, (4) Rest of China. Ability to defend each level w/o..
23/ns Must have capability (logistics, pers clothes & arms, training, weapons) to defend at levels, 1, 2,3 w/o escalating but ready to respond to escalation: [Level (4) response has to be #deterrence thru strategic naval capability in IO; Partner fr L4&5]
24/ns Interesting strategic thought 🧐🤔…
25/ns & back to the present situation…
26/ns (7b/ns) link 👇🏼 to what I said at 7/ns:
27/ns #MicroPlanning in #NationalSecurityStrategy (#NSS) This article spells out in clearer detail, some of the points i have been hinting at in the 👆🏼thread:…
28/ns #NatSec This naval👇🏼exercise is relevant to level 4 of ecalatory ladder (mentioned earlier in thread👆🏼)
30/ns 👍🏼 includes version of, (1)Unconventional War command/dept/div in CDS which i proposed(viz Pakistan) but applicable to China. (2) SEZ/CEZ/EEZs, here called #CharterCities (3) Modern weapons systems & mobile units, proposed by many military analysts:
31/ns Foreign Policy & National security
32/ns #Both #India & #USA need to rethink #Deterrence #Strategy for #Xi's China. Xi is more of a risk taker than previous Communist Chinese rulers:
33/ns Even realist #USA Strategists don't seem to understand extent of challenge posed by a Communist ruled #China, led by #XiJinping, a child of #Mao's cultural revolution, who has systematically eliminated all domestic rivals & intends to do the same with China's global rivals
34/ns And I disagree with this former #NSA too: Not only does it display unawareness of China's #WolfWarior diplomacy(don't care what small cntrys think), but like many other analysts, of Xi JinPing's character & history ("might is right")
35/ns For summary of #CCPXi's aggressiveness, read .
36/ns Analysis: (1) #CCP11 is confident, #China has escalation dominance over India and can ramp up or down at will, depending on outcomes, (2) Given this fact, China will withdraw from some, but not all intruded areas(bfr snows make impassable), putting onus of escalation on Ind
37/ns (3) Gear up quickly to defend LAC like LOC & fight every future intrusion as & when it occurs(speed). (4)Raise Deterrence strategy: Up US, Aus def partnership, Partial Econ Decoupling, E5, (5) Defence rfrms & higher def capital budget, (6) Ec policy rfrm to accelerate gr
38/ns #NSfundas 21stC: Closer #defence #partnership with "#Natural #allies" means mutual understanding of threats, clear agreement on circumstances under which we will or won't help each other, & nature of help to be provided by each side under diff circumstances=>StrategicPlan
39/ns The whole point of calling USA as "Natiral Ally"(as I did in my mof briefing email to Sec to PM, before ABVs visit to USA), was to imply that there is no need for a "formal alliance" on the lines of US treaties with S.Korea, Japan or Australia-NZ.=>Deep #Partnership
40/ns Greatest failure of #India's #National #Security, is failure to set up an #empowered org(eg #UDC) to think of imaginative solutions (eg missiles, drones,IW) to known problems & anticipate new aggressive moves/threats frm thm(wrt jehadi terrorism, incremental imperialism)😢
41/ns #National #Security #Strategy: The weakness of what i called #MicroPlaning (thread👆🏼) and its integration with #Strategic #planning (based on #NSS), illustrated here 👇🏼through an analysis of #KargilWar. I expect #CDS,#IDS, to do this integration:…
44/ns #NationalSecurity #Strategy Time for #CDS, #IDS, to dig out all the dismissed/buried scenarios of the #China threat (eg… ) no matter how fanciful, and reevaluate them in the current context of the #CCP11 era! Anything is possible during 2021 to 2035.
48/ns @rwac48 spells out 37/ns:"fortifying DBO-Galwan, Hot Springs-Gogra-Kongka La-Tsogtsalu & Marsimik La-Ane La-Phobrang- Fingers 1-3 Secs with overwhelming resources+inbuilt counter-offensive capability(permanent). Reserves arrayed fr counter-offensive in Chushul,Indus&Chumar"
49/ns #IndiaNS #EscalationLadder We've to prepare multiple levels(L0-L5) of war viz aggressive #CCPPLA: L0:Terrorism(thru Pak, Myn), L1: Creeping Acquisition of Territory(LAC), L2:Border war, L3:Confined to border states, L4: All out conventional, L5: Nuclear threat/deterrence.
50/ns Each level will have its own core war-fighting cum #deterrence strategy, but overlaps & synergies, must be maximized to reduce costs. These overlaps are higher for L1-L2 than for L3-L4; Air power is key element of L3 & Naval power is key to L4. Cyber is critical for L2-L5.
51/ns #National #Security A different (micro-strategic) way of looking at L1-L2 overlap ( Aksai chin highway G219)…
52/ns #LFLo We bury our #ISR (#Intelligence, #surveillance, #reconasence) failures (1947, 1962, 1965, 1999-Kargil, Pathankot-Pulwama, Ladakh-2020) in top secret files and are condemned to repeat them (Is HB report still secret bcs errors have NOT been corrected?)#AssasinsMace
53/ns Failure of #Imagination, #Planning (incl Cost effective tech) & Defence procurement, #management, decision making: eg AAM gap (BVR 100km ), AWACS gap, Short range (<400km) cruise+ballistic missile gap; Cancellation of HDW, Bofors contracts😭; MMRCA procurement saga😭.
54/ns In this era of #GreyWars, we need more such #innovative #thinking by our #National #Security and #Military establishment (warning: not all ideas will pan out, but you will never know if you don't try) :
55/ns #SinoPak alliance is 50 years old, but its broadened and deepened every decade. Superficial fluctuations in India-Pakistan relations have no effect on its trend growth:
57/ns Have been thinking since 2013, about the failure of our National Security Strategy & Defence management systems, to adapt to threat posed by #GreyzoneWar ranging from State sponsored #terrorism to #CreepingAcqusition.👇🏼spurs public debate👍🏼:
58/ns Lt Gen Hoda(rtd) summarizes some of the lessons from Ladakh, indicated above👆🏼, in his article (thread👇🏼
59/ns Have even the first two rungs of the escalatory ladder (L1 & L2), gone high tech? Will India-China fight a Net centric (mountain) border war?…
60/ns This scenario of a #Chinese invasion of #Taiwan in 2021, is relevant to our Short term (9-18 month ) #defence #planning. Need to reflect on all implications for #National #Security (cc @rajnathsingh @DrSJaishankar @PMOIndia ):
62/ns #PLA has constructed a string of #Radars & #SAM sires across entire #LAC in last 9-12 mons, to counter India's air superiority on Tibetan plateau, preparatory to implementation of Xi's aggressive designs. This has not elicited any analysis from retd military men. But ..
63/ns This article spells out some of the #strategic elements, I have been trying to convey in my continuing thread on #National #Security :…
64/ns Distributed defence is likely the best approach in the himalayan hills & valleys of LOC & border areas, given our army's strength in thinking on its feet. This👇🏼increases the effectiveness of our soldiers by helping neutralize their claimed superiority in technology!
65/ns #India #National #Security A strategic shift is now clearly underway (thread) with a clear recognition of #CCP's aggression (50 yrs after #CCPchina's proliferation of nuclear & missile tech to Pakistan, 25 yrs after its declaration of Arunachal Pradesh as South Tibet😈)
66/ns #National #Security #Beware #CCPPLA is going to plug gaps that our forces were hoping to use to counter an invasion of Eastern sec. We have to seriously up our game across entire escalatory ladder (L1-L5). This will require higher defence budget & closer partnership w USA.
67/ns #CCPPLA It 👇🏼may be visible/noticed now👇🏼, but has been unfolding all along the border during the past 12 months. Take it Very seriously, by re-evaluating entire #National #Security #strategy urgently and re-orienting it meet the challenge
68/ns Most likely, this is the outcome of a reformed L1 policy i.e. quick reaction/counteraction of every attempt to block traditional patrolling routes(in grey area btwn perceptions of LAC), instituted since the May surprise!
69/ns New L1 micro-strategy; respond symmetrically & quickly to every provocation by the #CCPPLA, on the border (LAC grey areas) :…
70/ns #Chinese communist party (#CCP) has always believed that, "Diplomacy is war by other means." Finally, India is picking up gauntlet thrown(2020) by #PLA; after decades of failure of our traditional Gandhian approach to war & diplomacy(Don't expect Govt to shout from rooftop)
71/ns #NSD #NSS Given the May-July violation of all border management agreements by the #CcpPLA, the #LAC, with its differing perceptions & grey areas where both countries patrolled, is likely to be converted gradually into an #LOC with armed troops facing each other across it.
72/ns With right equipment & ammo, Indian army can win a border war with China (levels L1 & L2 of escalation ladder) . We can also come out even, at the next level (L3) war confined to border states on both sides; but #CCPPLA will invest to chg bal soon.…

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with Arvind Virmani

Arvind Virmani Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @dravirmani

Apr 13
Beware Information war by certain sections of the foreign media, including the Hong Kong based media. Sadly there are Indian media, intellectuals and experts, who get easily carried away by such mis-information, instead of expressing scepticism, while reporting it!
Read 4 tweets
Feb 24
Better late than never. We all make mistakes. The critical test will be how German policy on #China changes (not Russia policy, which is fairly predictable)
2/eu Same test for EU, 👇🏽is predictable
3/eu The lesson is applicable to India-China! Remember Military strength requires both funds and Partnerships (to get technology & advanced equipment at lowest cost)
Read 4 tweets
Feb 24
@Special relationship" is a #delusion that Indians must #shun if they are to defend their Nation against Autocratic nations which have been looking for a way to destroy them for 75 years
Make no mistake, Putin's Damocles sword is now hanging over India's head. We don't have the luxury of talking🤐, we have to plan, decide, and act!
There are only "overlapping interests," between any two countries; When the overlap gets smaller & smaller, expect foreign policies to change; don't #delude yourself about friendship, Bhai Bhai & Jigri Dosti
Read 12 tweets
Feb 23
#PIP says: “#FOE for media includes, the freedom to censor.”
#PIP says: “The fourth estate is a guarantor of our freedom and democracy, believe it or not”
3/foe And #FOE in #US also means the freedom to censor/self-censor. So Indian media meets the highest quality standards in the World 😇
Read 4 tweets
Feb 22
True, but there is a fine line between friendly advice and #Information #Warfare. My friends advise me privately and politely, not criticise me on social media, or give me advice on TV interviews! Those who did the latter are no longer my friends 🤡.
#PIP says: “We 😍🥰😘🐕🐩🦮”
3/pip #PIP: “The concept of “Friendship” in IR has been the bane of Indian foreign policy; Indians get emotionally committed to it, while great powers use it as an instrument of moral/intellectual coercion!” Asymmetric tests of “logical consistency” are another tool of coercion
Read 11 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!


0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy


3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!