Dr Arvind Virmani (Phd) Profile picture
Jun 29, 2020 69 tweets 51 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Surely every serious national security strategist understands the distinction btwn Govts Geopolitical decisions and th military's detailed scenario planning & action program. A govt can decided on basis of expected value of outcome or worst case scenarios-the latter is paralyzing
2/ns The critical issue in China-India conflict is that,as of now (2020), #China controls the #escalatory ladder. So India's #National #Security Apparatus has to make assumptions about when and how #CCPpla will escalate, if it loses the first few steps on its escalatory ladder!
3/ns The worst case scenario for us is therefore the one in which after loosing previous escalations, #CCP China escalates to a full fledged war/attack on India, by shifting US-facing troops and highest quality equipment towards India. This has proved paralyzing for past Govts!🤔
4/ns The worst case scenario of full scale aggression by #China, is 1 in which question of #alliance with #USA becomes relevant. Two questions arise, (1) How likely is such an eventuality, & (2) Will #US as 21st C ally, be willing or able to make credible commitments?(deterrence)
5/ns Several of us assumed till few yrs ago, we could establish hard deterrence, the probability of #CCP escalating to a full scale war would be reduced enough for us to not need a US alliance. Post Xi 👆🏼this assumption & post-Trump, credibility of any alliance, are questionable!
7/ns Expect #CCP11 to unleash all his dogs🐕 from #Stratocracy in West, to 🤑in north & south to Terrorists👿 in East, to attack India. #GOI must start exploring a 21st version of Indo-Soviet treaty with the USA. Also time for dramatic economic liberalization(-CCPchina) & reform
8/ns Learn from history(Adm Arun Prakash): indianexpress.com/article/opinio…
9/ns Comprehensive analysis, but a little too dismissive of #Terroristan's historical inventiveness in pursuing #Jehad (never underestimate the enemy): https://t.co/YJU8r2kgg2
11/ns Good review of current Chinese strategic thinking on India delhipolicygroup.org/uploads_dpg/pu…
12/ns #IndiaNS #NSstrategy (In my judgement) the primary usefulness of India dominating IOR choke points is to undermine/break #China's escalation dominance below the nuclear threshold ie it can act as final non-nuclear deterrence option below nuclear. hindustantimes.com/analysis/shift…
13/ns #IndiaNS #NSsecurity and therefore it also requires,to some extent, an integration of conventional and nuclear deterrence strategy (my @fsidelhi colleague @brigarunsahgal has previously proposed the latter). [#Beware This is serious war planning not a twitter/facebook war)
14/ns Nat Sec Strategy can't b defined by looking at partial picture as in outoftheboxview.geopoiltics.com/2020/07/why-is…. India would only attack commercial shipping, if China attacked Indian heartland. The #capability to blockade 2 straits would be critical to deter #PLA frm escalating beyond border
15/ns Closing off Entrances to IO for enemy vessels & hunting down enemy targets in IO could be first response to any attack on Indian military targets in penensular India. Sinking commercial vessels can only be a response to attack on civilian areas! #Capability=>#Deterence
16/ns "Balancer in IO" is fine sentence for use in international seminars, but what India needs is a naval capability to close the IO choke pts in response to Chinese attack on Indian C3I, with tacit approval of USA, Japan & Australia, but w/o direct military support from them.
17/ns (also see tweet below it) https://t.co/vZ5Y49NUex
18/ns We no longer have the luxury of time to postpone difficult decisions. Have to accelerate our actions on all three fronts: Economic, Military & Geopolitical/Geoeconomic if we want to check-mate this multipronged, multidimensional threat: https://t.co/7NfOroMXf7
19/ns #CCPbully #PLAmafia (Understand the #Psychology of a #Bully to deal with him effectively): https://t.co/gkFjM7mmvZ
20/ns India must b prepared for evry move up #escalatory #ladder by #China, but can't initiate such move, except if existence as modern nation is threatened. We hv to b prepared to meet 1st few steps of escalation, but need US partnership to enhance credibility of final 2 steps
21/ns #NationalSecurity #experts expected a gradual ramping up of #CCPpla #aggressiveness over next decade. They were unprepared for th speed & audacity with which #ChairmanXi has ramped up aggression. Bravery & sacrifice of our soldiers has saved us! Prepare to make ec sacrifice
22/ns Need to integrate micro/operational & strategic planning by analyzing the escalatory ladder;Threats in/from (1) grey area btwn LACind & LACch, (2) Ch controlled territory beyond LACch (3) from Tibet, Xinjiang as whole, (4) Rest of China. Ability to defend each level w/o..
23/ns Must have capability (logistics, pers clothes & arms, training, weapons) to defend at levels, 1, 2,3 w/o escalating but ready to respond to escalation: [Level (4) response has to be #deterrence thru strategic naval capability in IO; Partner fr L4&5] https://t.co/B7TRP3kQMq
24/ns Interesting strategic thought 🧐🤔 asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Inter…
25/ns & back to the present situation theprint.in/opinion/indias…
26/ns (7b/ns) link 👇🏼 to what I said at 7/ns: https://t.co/YpL2cAVz6J
27/ns #MicroPlanning in #NationalSecurityStrategy (#NSS) This article spells out in clearer detail, some of the points i have been hinting at in the 👆🏼thread: indiatoday.in/magazine/defen…
28/ns #NatSec This naval👇🏼exercise is relevant to level 4 of ecalatory ladder (mentioned earlier in thread👆🏼) https://t.co/rlOVsZGD3T
30/ns 👍🏼 includes version of, (1)Unconventional War command/dept/div in CDS which i proposed(viz Pakistan) but applicable to China. (2) SEZ/CEZ/EEZs, here called #CharterCities (3) Modern weapons systems & mobile units, proposed by many military analysts: https://t.co/BkN4lzz0cB
31/ns Foreign Policy & National security https://t.co/gN2fbWEBNi
32/ns #Both #India & #USA need to rethink #Deterrence #Strategy for #Xi's China. Xi is more of a risk taker than previous Communist Chinese rulers: https://t.co/uyRP05QvoN
33/ns Even realist #USA Strategists don't seem to understand extent of challenge posed by a Communist ruled #China, led by #XiJinping, a child of #Mao's cultural revolution, who has systematically eliminated all domestic rivals & intends to do the same with China's global rivals
34/ns And I disagree with this former #NSA too: Not only does it display unawareness of China's #WolfWarior diplomacy(don't care what small cntrys think), but like many other analysts, of Xi JinPing's character & history ("might is right") https://t.co/7QZ8ISe61i
35/ns For summary of #CCPXi's aggressiveness, read . https://t.co/2HfRXnJyPn
36/ns Analysis: (1) #CCP11 is confident, #China has escalation dominance over India and can ramp up or down at will, depending on outcomes, (2) Given this fact, China will withdraw from some, but not all intruded areas(bfr snows make impassable), putting onus of escalation on Ind
37/ns (3) Gear up quickly to defend LAC like LOC & fight every future intrusion as & when it occurs(speed). (4)Raise Deterrence strategy: Up US, Aus def partnership, Partial Econ Decoupling, E5, (5) Defence rfrms & higher def capital budget, (6) Ec policy rfrm to accelerate gr
38/ns #NSfundas 21stC: Closer #defence #partnership with "#Natural #allies" means mutual understanding of threats, clear agreement on circumstances under which we will or won't help each other, & nature of help to be provided by each side under diff circumstances=>StrategicPlan
39/ns The whole point of calling USA as "Natiral Ally"(as I did in my mof briefing email to Sec to PM, before ABVs visit to USA), was to imply that there is no need for a "formal alliance" on the lines of US treaties with S.Korea, Japan or Australia-NZ.=>Deep #Partnership
40/ns Greatest failure of #India's #National #Security, is failure to set up an #empowered org(eg #UDC) to think of imaginative solutions (eg missiles, drones,IW) to known problems & anticipate new aggressive moves/threats frm thm(wrt jehadi terrorism, incremental imperialism)😢
41/ns #National #Security #Strategy: The weakness of what i called #MicroPlaning (thread👆🏼) and its integration with #Strategic #planning (based on #NSS), illustrated here 👇🏼through an analysis of #KargilWar. I expect #CDS,#IDS, to do this integration: theprint.in/opinion/20-yea…
44/ns #NationalSecurity #Strategy Time for #CDS, #IDS, to dig out all the dismissed/buried scenarios of the #China threat (eg m.hindustantimes.com/india-news/ind… ) no matter how fanciful, and reevaluate them in the current context of the #CCP11 era! Anything is possible during 2021 to 2035.
48/ns @rwac48 spells out 37/ns:"fortifying DBO-Galwan, Hot Springs-Gogra-Kongka La-Tsogtsalu & Marsimik La-Ane La-Phobrang- Fingers 1-3 Secs with overwhelming resources+inbuilt counter-offensive capability(permanent). Reserves arrayed fr counter-offensive in Chushul,Indus&Chumar"
49/ns #IndiaNS #EscalationLadder We've to prepare multiple levels(L0-L5) of war viz aggressive #CCPPLA: L0:Terrorism(thru Pak, Myn), L1: Creeping Acquisition of Territory(LAC), L2:Border war, L3:Confined to border states, L4: All out conventional, L5: Nuclear threat/deterrence.
50/ns Each level will have its own core war-fighting cum #deterrence strategy, but overlaps & synergies, must be maximized to reduce costs. These overlaps are higher for L1-L2 than for L3-L4; Air power is key element of L3 & Naval power is key to L4. Cyber is critical for L2-L5.
51/ns #National #Security A different (micro-strategic) way of looking at L1-L2 overlap ( Aksai chin highway G219) pressreader.com/india/the-sund…
52/ns #LFLo We bury our #ISR (#Intelligence, #surveillance, #reconasence) failures (1947, 1962, 1965, 1999-Kargil, Pathankot-Pulwama, Ladakh-2020) in top secret files and are condemned to repeat them (Is HB report still secret bcs errors have NOT been corrected?)#AssasinsMace
53/ns Failure of #Imagination, #Planning (incl Cost effective tech) & Defence procurement, #management, decision making: eg AAM gap (BVR 100km ), AWACS gap, Short range (<400km) cruise+ballistic missile gap; Cancellation of HDW, Bofors contracts😭; MMRCA procurement saga😭.
54/ns In this era of #GreyWars, we need more such #innovative #thinking by our #National #Security and #Military establishment (warning: not all ideas will pan out, but you will never know if you don't try) : https://t.co/d6GE4EOmrf
55/ns #SinoPak alliance is 50 years old, but its broadened and deepened every decade. Superficial fluctuations in India-Pakistan relations have no effect on its trend growth: https://t.co/J0ETkKKOLN
57/ns Have been thinking since 2013, about the failure of our National Security Strategy & Defence management systems, to adapt to threat posed by #GreyzoneWar ranging from State sponsored #terrorism to #CreepingAcqusition.👇🏼spurs public debate👍🏼: https://t.co/WZTsEGwkkf
58/ns Lt Gen Hoda(rtd) summarizes some of the lessons from Ladakh, indicated above👆🏼, in his article (thread👇🏼 https://t.co/S8wuDt8mgl
59/ns Have even the first two rungs of the escalatory ladder (L1 & L2), gone high tech? Will India-China fight a Net centric (mountain) border war? theprint.in/opinion/indias…
60/ns This scenario of a #Chinese invasion of #Taiwan in 2021, is relevant to our Short term (9-18 month ) #defence #planning. Need to reflect on all implications for #National #Security (cc @rajnathsingh @DrSJaishankar @PMOIndia ): https://t.co/BwRiFA53pk
62/ns #PLA has constructed a string of #Radars & #SAM sires across entire #LAC in last 9-12 mons, to counter India's air superiority on Tibetan plateau, preparatory to implementation of Xi's aggressive designs. This has not elicited any analysis from retd military men. But ..
63/ns This article spells out some of the #strategic elements, I have been trying to convey in my continuing thread on #National #Security : bharatshakti.in/time-to-reflec…
64/ns Distributed defence is likely the best approach in the himalayan hills & valleys of LOC & border areas, given our army's strength in thinking on its feet. This👇🏼increases the effectiveness of our soldiers by helping neutralize their claimed superiority in technology!
65/ns #India #National #Security A strategic shift is now clearly underway (thread) with a clear recognition of #CCP's aggression (50 yrs after #CCPchina's proliferation of nuclear & missile tech to Pakistan, 25 yrs after its declaration of Arunachal Pradesh as South Tibet😈)
66/ns #National #Security #Beware #CCPPLA is going to plug gaps that our forces were hoping to use to counter an invasion of Eastern sec. We have to seriously up our game across entire escalatory ladder (L1-L5). This will require higher defence budget & closer partnership w USA.
67/ns #CCPPLA It 👇🏼may be visible/noticed now👇🏼, but has been unfolding all along the border during the past 12 months. Take it Very seriously, by re-evaluating entire #National #Security #strategy urgently and re-orienting it meet the challenge
68/ns Most likely, this is the outcome of a reformed L1 policy i.e. quick reaction/counteraction of every attempt to block traditional patrolling routes(in grey area btwn perceptions of LAC), instituted since the May surprise!
69/ns New L1 micro-strategy; respond symmetrically & quickly to every provocation by the #CCPPLA, on the border (LAC grey areas) : theprint.in/defence/indian…
70/ns #Chinese communist party (#CCP) has always believed that, "Diplomacy is war by other means." Finally, India is picking up gauntlet thrown(2020) by #PLA; after decades of failure of our traditional Gandhian approach to war & diplomacy(Don't expect Govt to shout from rooftop)
71/ns #NSD #NSS Given the May-July violation of all border management agreements by the #CcpPLA, the #LAC, with its differing perceptions & grey areas where both countries patrolled, is likely to be converted gradually into an #LOC with armed troops facing each other across it.
72/ns With right equipment & ammo, Indian army can win a border war with China (levels L1 & L2 of escalation ladder) . We can also come out even, at the next level (L3) war confined to border states on both sides; but #CCPPLA will invest to chg bal soon. usadefensenews.com/2020/06/24/ind…

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More from @dravirmani

Jan 28
One should be inured to the pro-China, anti-India, bias of the Anglo Saxon world, & its subalterns [ jstor.org/stable/30030642 ], but sadly after 50 yrs, one is still not!
2/ir #India’s #rise is causing deep disquiet in the #Anglo #Saxon #World and among its subalterns. #Information #War will intensify in next 3 years, and won’t subside till India becomes the third largest economy in (current) USD.
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As a National Security Strategist * find it a little difficult to interpret such statements by Senior officers of the US armed forces, in the broader context of the PRC threat!
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2/res Ths who’ve never done #research in lifetime find it difficult to understand, why this is critical, for directing commissioning & using, good policy relevant research [An internal core of researchers is key to success]. For them ideas & analysis can be bought like software📦
3/res Any org that merely reacts to media headlines, & questions raised by critics, is like a consultancy organisation, not a think tank. It can never anticipate problems, nor create imaginative new solutions. Worlds top consultancy orgs. reward salesmanship not analysis… 4/res
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Buddha's Golden Mean (#BGM): "Those who forget history are condemned to repeat it, those who are obsessed by it, will never see a brighter future"
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The effects of sept 2019-March 2022 #policy #reforms will therefore, likely not be visible in the growth rate, before FY 24 or FY 25. However, the quicker the changes in law are reflected in the rules & procedure applicable to firms, the quicker they will be reflected in growth!
3/gdpi Remember “#India #Shining” campaign in 2003-4: Bcs of lags btwn enactment of policy rfrm into law, their translation into rules & procedures, and decisions by investors, it took years to translate policy reforms into aggregate growth. Wrld econ is in much worse shape today
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