It's a big day in the #Syria policy world, as #SyriaConf2021 kicks off in #Brussels & @SecBlinken chairs a UNSC session on humanitarian aid in #Syria.

BIG kudos to @ABlinken for taking this on & raising the vital aid issue onto the front-burner.
@SecBlinken @ABlinken NEW - As has so often been the case, when the international community convenes high-level #Syria events (#SyriaConf2021 & UNSC), #Russia's jets take to the sky & drop bombs.

Multiple airstrikes being reported in #Idlib right now.
@SecBlinken @ABlinken In 10mins, @SecBlinken will chair a UNSC session on humanitarian aid in #Syria.

Last week, Jeff Feltman & I wrote something for @politico calling for high-level diplomacy to sustain unhindered cross-border aid access. There's nothing more important now:

@SecBlinken @ABlinken @politico And not only is #Russia threatening to cut *all* aid to 4.5+ million civilians, it's also back to using precision weapons to destroy hospitals in #Syria.

Our investigation last week revealed the 1st proven use of laser-guided artillery shells to do so:

@SecBlinken @ABlinken @politico .@UNReliefChief tells UNSC that aid needs are "higher than ever," with 14.3 million in need -- 20% more than in 2020.

Malnutrition is rapidly rising. Image
@SecBlinken @ABlinken @politico @UNReliefChief .@UNReliefChief tells UNSC of the artillery shelling that targeted the @UN-deconflicted al-Atareb hospital -- which was "obviously a deliberate attack."

Note that I & a team of munitions analysts determined that #Russia laser-guided munitions were used:

@SecBlinken @ABlinken @politico @UNReliefChief @UN .@UNReliefChief says that recent airstrikes targeted the road to Bab al-Hawa crossing, the only point for cross-border aid today -- including a truck depot used to store aid delivery.

"More than 75%" of the 4.5 million civilians in NW #Syria depend on @UN aid today. Image
@SecBlinken @ABlinken @politico @UNReliefChief @UN .@UNReliefChief, to UNSC now:

- The reason there's still malnutrition in NW #Syria isn't because @UN aid is being diverted, it's because the UN aid effort isn't big enough - we need more money.

- Still no cross-line agreement/aid from #Damascus to #Idlib. "Not a single truck." Image
@SecBlinken @ABlinken @politico @UNReliefChief @UN .@unicefchief speaking to UNSC now:

- "Across #Syria, nearly 90% of children require humanitarian assistance."

- Families reporting children suffering from mental health issues has doubled over the past year.

- Over 1 million stunted children a cross #Syria. Image
@SecBlinken @ABlinken @politico @UNReliefChief @UN @unicefchief .@AmaniBallour tells UNSC that #Syria's suffering people are "still waiting" for help and support from the international community.

538 attacks on medical facilities "and still no accountability."

Renewing cross-border assistance "is simply the right thing to do." Image
@SecBlinken @ABlinken @politico @UNReliefChief @UN @unicefchief @AmaniBallour .@SecBlinken at UNSC:

- "Look, we all sit these chairs & speak these words & represent these countries, but how is it possible that we can't find in our hearts to take meaningful action to do something. How is that possible?

Think of your children & look into your hearts." Image
@SecBlinken @ABlinken @politico @UNReliefChief @UN @unicefchief @AmaniBallour .@SecBlinken at UNSC:

- "On March 21, the #Assad regime shelled al-Atareb hospital... even a cave could not keep them safe...The coordinates had been shared with the UN, meaning the regime knew exactly where it was."

On the same day, aid supplies were targeted too. Image
@SecBlinken @ABlinken @politico @UNReliefChief @UN @unicefchief @AmaniBallour .@SecBlinken at UNSC:

- "It is clear that the needs are not going to be met by #Syria's regime... We know the answer, we must ensure #Syrians get the aid they need & the most efficient method is through border crossings... There is no good reason crossings remain closed today." Image
@SecBlinken @ABlinken @politico @UNReliefChief @UN @unicefchief @AmaniBallour .@SecBlinken just appeared to attribute last week's bombing of @UN aid routes & supplies near Bab al-Hawa to "#Russian forces."

We've not heard that before -- until now, it'd be attributed to #Assad forces.

It would align with this, from the same day:
@SecBlinken @ABlinken @politico @UNReliefChief @UN @unicefchief @AmaniBallour Here's @SecBlinken's #Syria cross-border aid proposal at the UNSC:

- "Let's reauthorize both border crossings that've been closed" (al-Yaroubiya & Bab al-Salam) & keep Bab al-Hawa open.

Allow unhindered access -- "it's more important than ever." Image
@SecBlinken @ABlinken @politico @UNReliefChief @UN @unicefchief @AmaniBallour .@SecBlinken makes a clear & crucially important point at the UNSC -- that "sovereignty was never intended to ensure the right of a government to starve its people."

Hear, hear. Image
@SecBlinken @ABlinken @politico @UNReliefChief @UN @unicefchief @AmaniBallour After hearing a chorus of calls for a widening of aid access to northern #Syria, #Russia's Deputy FM Vershinin accuses the West of providing cover for jihadists; failing to provide for areas they "de facto occupy;" and imposing sanctions [against #Assad's regime]. Image
@SecBlinken @ABlinken @politico @UNReliefChief @UN @unicefchief @AmaniBallour #Russia's Deputy FM Vershinin is doing a superb job of #Moscow-style distraction, obfuscation & disinformation.

And in closing, he gave us all this insulting nonsense:

- "Representatives in #Damascus are doing everything they can to support international humanitarian actions." Image
@SecBlinken @ABlinken @politico @UNReliefChief @UN @unicefchief @AmaniBallour Just minutes before @SecBlinken took to chair a UNSC session on #Syria aid, #Russia jets struck their latest target in #Idlib -- a sizable chicken farm.

That's no coincidence -- as hospitals, schools & the aid system have all been targeted in recent weeks. ImageImage
@SecBlinken @ABlinken @politico @UNReliefChief @UN @unicefchief @AmaniBallour My short analysis for @MiddleEastInst's Monday Briefing, looking at why it was so important that @SecBlinken took to the UNSC today to assert the importance of unhindered humanitarian access to the millions in need across northern #Syria:

mei.edu/blog/monday-br… ImageImage
@SecBlinken @ABlinken @politico @UNReliefChief @UN @unicefchief @AmaniBallour @MiddleEastInst As @UN chief @antonioguterres makes clear, the implications of an end to #Syria's cross-border aid mechanism would be truly catastrophic.

#Russia simply cannot be allowed to put #Assad's siege/starve strategy onto steroids -- we must act assertively now:

politico.com/news/magazine/…

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More from @Charles_Lister

31 Mar
If you read between the lines, this means #Assad's economy was doing OK when #ISIS controlled the oil fields, but when the #SDF took them, the regime suffered.

That's quite an admission -- so perhaps the documented & sanctioned oil trade between #ISIS & #Assad really mattered!
Just in case the tweets are deleted, here they are...

More broadly, #Assad's regime lost control of almost all its oil in 2014 -- 3yrs before this 'game-changing' moment cited from 2017.

In truth, @joshua_landis
& George Saghir are making a political, not analytical statement. Image
@joshua_landis If you want to be analytical (& truthful), take a look at the evolution of #Syria's economy -- like this chart by @Karam__Shaar shows.

Now, does October 2017 look like a game-changing moment? No.

Does the start of #Lebanon's banking crisis? Irrefutably, yes. Image
Read 4 tweets
30 Mar
NEW -- Donors at #SyriaConf2021 have pledged a total of $6.4bn.

That's an enormous $3.6bn short of what the @UN needs to meet the increasing humanitarian needs in #Syria.
@UN A few more pledges for #Syria:

#EU: $657m
#Saudi: $560m
#Sweden: $97m
#Italy: $52m
#UAE: $30m

And a note on the $6.4bn total -- that's multi-year pledges. For 2021 alone, the figure is $4.2bn, less than half of what's needed.
Read 4 tweets
30 Mar
Very interesting -- ahead of the D-#ISIS Small Group meeting, @aawsat_News says the coalition is considering expanding policy to include combating #ISIS in areas controlled by the #Assad-#Russia-#Iran alliance, which it says has "failed" to defeat #ISIS.

aawsat.com/node/2887216 Image
@aawsat_News It's been clear for a long time that #ISIS's resurgence, particularly in #Syria's central 'Badiya' desert was (a) sustainable & (b) eventually going to spillover into @CJTFOIR/#SDF areas on the eastern side of the #Euphrates.

We can sit & watch, or act.

@aawsat_News @CJTFOIR The @aawsat_News report says the D-#ISIS Coalition is working on a public statement in which 2 areas of pro-#Assad control -- the (1) Badiya & (2) #Syria-#Iraq border region -- could become areas of [aerial] @CJTFOIR operation.

The border is critical for logistics, finance etc.
Read 8 tweets
26 Mar
With the #Biden administration settled in, there's a clear trend emerging in certain circles to swat away long-standing, complex foreign policy challenges -- and #Syria appears to be low-hanging fruit.

'#Syria doesn't matter,' some say... 'It was just never that important.'
It's good for there to be a debate -- & yes, 'great power competition' (#China, #Russia etc.) ought to be *the* priority.

BUT to shove #Syria aside as a minor inconvenience would be profoundly reckless, given the extraordinary costs it's inflicted on global stability since '11.
So far, arguments in favor of '#Syria doesn't matter' can be broken down into 2 camps:

(1) Those who ignore the profound past, current & future costs altogether - or worse - (2) those who astonishingly claim that #Assad, #Russia & #Iran can resolve the crisis & achieve stability
Read 16 tweets
25 Mar
Exclusive -- the March 21 attack on the @UN-deconflicted al-Atareb hospital in NW #Syria involved the use of #Russian "Krasnopol" laser-guided artillery shells, guided precisely to their target by a Russian UAV.

Extensive analysis of munition debris shows a direct correlation.
@UN Shortly after the attack, doctors & rescue workers began recovering remnants of the shells that hit al-Atareb hospital.

In addition to the usual metal shrapnel, they found circuit boards -- a tell-tale sign of precision-guidance tech, in this case, in artillery shells.
@UN That piqued my interest & in the days since, employees of al-Atareb hospital (associated with @sams_usa) gathered all the shell debris, removed it to a safe site & photographed it for analysis.

It soon became clear we were looking at *certain* evidence of Krasnopol munitions.
Read 9 tweets
23 Mar
CC'ing Jan Egeland (@NRC_Egeland) here -- the chair of @antonioguterres's "Senior Advisory Panel" investigating the @UN's "deconfliction" mechanism intended to protect hospitals in #Syria.

The council reports to the UN SG in May.
@NRC_Egeland @antonioguterres @UN Shortly after the #SAA artillery strike on the al-Atareb hospital, rescue workers discovered remnants of the shells, which contained circuit boards -- this is an unusual detail that *could* indicate that the munitions were laser-guided & newly provided by #Russia.
@NRC_Egeland @antonioguterres @UN #Russia has deployed 2K25 Krasnopol guided munitions from #Khmeymim AB, so we know they're in #Syria already -- but whether they're fired by #SAA is another matter.

Either way, it could also indicate the #Russia drone was acting as the laser designator -- marking the target.
Read 4 tweets

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