@SecBlinken@ABlinken NEW - As has so often been the case, when the international community convenes high-level #Syria events (#SyriaConf2021 & UNSC), #Russia's jets take to the sky & drop bombs.
Multiple airstrikes being reported in #Idlib right now.
Last week, Jeff Feltman & I wrote something for @politico calling for high-level diplomacy to sustain unhindered cross-border aid access. There's nothing more important now:
@SecBlinken@ABlinken@politico And not only is #Russia threatening to cut *all* aid to 4.5+ million civilians, it's also back to using precision weapons to destroy hospitals in #Syria.
Our investigation last week revealed the 1st proven use of laser-guided artillery shells to do so:
- The reason there's still malnutrition in NW #Syria isn't because @UN aid is being diverted, it's because the UN aid effort isn't big enough - we need more money.
- Still no cross-line agreement/aid from #Damascus to #Idlib. "Not a single truck."
- "Look, we all sit these chairs & speak these words & represent these countries, but how is it possible that we can't find in our hearts to take meaningful action to do something. How is that possible?
- "On March 21, the #Assad regime shelled al-Atareb hospital... even a cave could not keep them safe...The coordinates had been shared with the UN, meaning the regime knew exactly where it was."
- "It is clear that the needs are not going to be met by #Syria's regime... We know the answer, we must ensure #Syrians get the aid they need & the most efficient method is through border crossings... There is no good reason crossings remain closed today."
If you read between the lines, this means #Assad's economy was doing OK when #ISIS controlled the oil fields, but when the #SDF took them, the regime suffered.
That's quite an admission -- so perhaps the documented & sanctioned oil trade between #ISIS & #Assad really mattered!
Very interesting -- ahead of the D-#ISIS Small Group meeting, @aawsat_News says the coalition is considering expanding policy to include combating #ISIS in areas controlled by the #Assad-#Russia-#Iran alliance, which it says has "failed" to defeat #ISIS.
@aawsat_News It's been clear for a long time that #ISIS's resurgence, particularly in #Syria's central 'Badiya' desert was (a) sustainable & (b) eventually going to spillover into @CJTFOIR/#SDF areas on the eastern side of the #Euphrates.
@aawsat_News@CJTFOIR The @aawsat_News report says the D-#ISIS Coalition is working on a public statement in which 2 areas of pro-#Assad control -- the (1) Badiya & (2) #Syria-#Iraq border region -- could become areas of [aerial] @CJTFOIR operation.
The border is critical for logistics, finance etc.
With the #Biden administration settled in, there's a clear trend emerging in certain circles to swat away long-standing, complex foreign policy challenges -- and #Syria appears to be low-hanging fruit.
'#Syria doesn't matter,' some say... 'It was just never that important.'
It's good for there to be a debate -- & yes, 'great power competition' (#China, #Russia etc.) ought to be *the* priority.
BUT to shove #Syria aside as a minor inconvenience would be profoundly reckless, given the extraordinary costs it's inflicted on global stability since '11.
So far, arguments in favor of '#Syria doesn't matter' can be broken down into 2 camps:
(1) Those who ignore the profound past, current & future costs altogether - or worse - (2) those who astonishingly claim that #Assad, #Russia & #Iran can resolve the crisis & achieve stability
Exclusive -- the March 21 attack on the @UN-deconflicted al-Atareb hospital in NW #Syria involved the use of #Russian "Krasnopol" laser-guided artillery shells, guided precisely to their target by a Russian UAV.
Extensive analysis of munition debris shows a direct correlation.
@UN Shortly after the attack, doctors & rescue workers began recovering remnants of the shells that hit al-Atareb hospital.
In addition to the usual metal shrapnel, they found circuit boards -- a tell-tale sign of precision-guidance tech, in this case, in artillery shells.
@UN That piqued my interest & in the days since, employees of al-Atareb hospital (associated with @sams_usa) gathered all the shell debris, removed it to a safe site & photographed it for analysis.
It soon became clear we were looking at *certain* evidence of Krasnopol munitions.
CC'ing Jan Egeland (@NRC_Egeland) here -- the chair of @antonioguterres's "Senior Advisory Panel" investigating the @UN's "deconfliction" mechanism intended to protect hospitals in #Syria.
@NRC_Egeland@antonioguterres@UN Shortly after the #SAA artillery strike on the al-Atareb hospital, rescue workers discovered remnants of the shells, which contained circuit boards -- this is an unusual detail that *could* indicate that the munitions were laser-guided & newly provided by #Russia.