Very interesting -- ahead of the D-#ISIS Small Group meeting, @aawsat_News says the coalition is considering expanding policy to include combating #ISIS in areas controlled by the #Assad-#Russia-#Iran alliance, which it says has "failed" to defeat #ISIS.
aawsat.com/node/2887216
aawsat.com/node/2887216
@aawsat_News It's been clear for a long time that #ISIS's resurgence, particularly in #Syria's central 'Badiya' desert was (a) sustainable & (b) eventually going to spillover into @CJTFOIR/#SDF areas on the eastern side of the #Euphrates.
We can sit & watch, or act.
We can sit & watch, or act.
https://twitter.com/Charles_Lister/status/1344373366250233857
@aawsat_News @CJTFOIR The @aawsat_News report says the D-#ISIS Coalition is working on a public statement in which 2 areas of pro-#Assad control -- the (1) Badiya & (2) #Syria-#Iraq border region -- could become areas of [aerial] @CJTFOIR operation.
The border is critical for logistics, finance etc.
The border is critical for logistics, finance etc.
@aawsat_News @CJTFOIR If @CJTFOIR decides that pre-empting a full-scale #ISIS west-east spillover is necessary, then we enter into a complicated deconfliction dilemma with #Russia.
#Moscow has an interest in a @CJTFOIR role (@mod_russia is failing), but that'd come at quite a cost. It seems unlikely.
#Moscow has an interest in a @CJTFOIR role (@mod_russia is failing), but that'd come at quite a cost. It seems unlikely.
@aawsat_News @CJTFOIR @mod_russia Assuming #Russia balks at the idea of a @CJTFOIR air role west of the #Euphrates, then the D-#ISIS Coalition will:
(a) be limited to stand-off strikes;
(b) have to act against #Russia/#Assad/#Iran's will;
(c) have to sit back, watch & wait for the spillover into #SDF areas.
(a) be limited to stand-off strikes;
(b) have to act against #Russia/#Assad/#Iran's will;
(c) have to sit back, watch & wait for the spillover into #SDF areas.
@aawsat_News @CJTFOIR @mod_russia I (& others) have said for *years* that #ISIS would survive & likely thrive again so long as #Assad remains in power in #Syria -- every piece of evidence in 2021 proves that point.
It's good that @CJTFOIR is concerned about the Badiya, but let's not forget root causes/drivers.
It's good that @CJTFOIR is concerned about the Badiya, but let's not forget root causes/drivers.
@aawsat_News @CJTFOIR @mod_russia NEW - The Global Coalition to Defeat #ISIS has issued its Small Group statement & it does *not* indicate a desire to combat/target #ISIS in #Assad-held areas of #Syria.
But it does note #ISIS's "resumption" & increase of activities in non-OIR areas:
theglobalcoalition.org/en/foreign-min…
But it does note #ISIS's "resumption" & increase of activities in non-OIR areas:
theglobalcoalition.org/en/foreign-min…
@aawsat_News @CJTFOIR @mod_russia So we know the D-#ISIS coalition internally acknowledges that #ISIS is resurging in #Assad-held areas & is concerned how that'll impact @CJTFOIR areas of #Syria & #Iraq -- but it remains unable/unwilling to act militarily to pre-empt inevitable spillover.
So we'll watch for now.
So we'll watch for now.
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