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30 Mar, 4 tweets, 7 min read
Update -- more #Syria pledges:

#Qatar: $100m
#Canada $49.5m
#Ireland $27m
#Spain $23.5m
#Belgium $21m
#Austria $21m
#Luxembourg $15m
#Finland: $9.5m
#Estonia: $1.3m
NEW -- Donors at #SyriaConf2021 have pledged a total of $6.4bn.

That's an enormous $3.6bn short of what the @UN needs to meet the increasing humanitarian needs in #Syria.
@UN A few more pledges for #Syria:

#EU: $657m
#Saudi: $560m
#Sweden: $97m
#Italy: $52m
#UAE: $30m

And a note on the $6.4bn total -- that's multi-year pledges. For 2021 alone, the figure is $4.2bn, less than half of what's needed.
@UN Here's a consolidated list of #Syria pledges made today at #SyriaConf2021 that I've been able to compile.

An extraordinary #Germany pledge; a disappointing #UK drop & an amazingly low #UAE number.

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More from @Charles_Lister

Charles Lister Profile picture
31 Mar
If you read between the lines, this means #Assad's economy was doing OK when #ISIS controlled the oil fields, but when the #SDF took them, the regime suffered.

That's quite an admission -- so perhaps the documented & sanctioned oil trade between #ISIS & #Assad really mattered!
Just in case the tweets are deleted, here they are...

More broadly, #Assad's regime lost control of almost all its oil in 2014 -- 3yrs before this 'game-changing' moment cited from 2017.

In truth, @joshua_landis
& George Saghir are making a political, not analytical statement. Image
@joshua_landis If you want to be analytical (& truthful), take a look at the evolution of #Syria's economy -- like this chart by @Karam__Shaar shows.

Now, does October 2017 look like a game-changing moment? No.

Does the start of #Lebanon's banking crisis? Irrefutably, yes. Image
Read 4 tweets
Charles Lister Profile picture
30 Mar
Very interesting -- ahead of the D-#ISIS Small Group meeting, @aawsat_News says the coalition is considering expanding policy to include combating #ISIS in areas controlled by the #Assad-#Russia-#Iran alliance, which it says has "failed" to defeat #ISIS.

aawsat.com/node/2887216
@aawsat_News It's been clear for a long time that #ISIS's resurgence, particularly in #Syria's central 'Badiya' desert was (a) sustainable & (b) eventually going to spillover into @CJTFOIR/#SDF areas on the eastern side of the #Euphrates.

We can sit & watch, or act.

@aawsat_News @CJTFOIR The @aawsat_News report says the D-#ISIS Coalition is working on a public statement in which 2 areas of pro-#Assad control -- the (1) Badiya & (2) #Syria-#Iraq border region -- could become areas of [aerial] @CJTFOIR operation.

The border is critical for logistics, finance etc.
Read 8 tweets
Charles Lister Profile picture
29 Mar
It's a big day in the #Syria policy world, as #SyriaConf2021 kicks off in #Brussels & @SecBlinken chairs a UNSC session on humanitarian aid in #Syria.

BIG kudos to @ABlinken for taking this on & raising the vital aid issue onto the front-burner.
@SecBlinken @ABlinken NEW - As has so often been the case, when the international community convenes high-level #Syria events (#SyriaConf2021 & UNSC), #Russia's jets take to the sky & drop bombs.

Multiple airstrikes being reported in #Idlib right now.
@SecBlinken @ABlinken In 10mins, @SecBlinken will chair a UNSC session on humanitarian aid in #Syria.

Last week, Jeff Feltman & I wrote something for @politico calling for high-level diplomacy to sustain unhindered cross-border aid access. There's nothing more important now:

Read 21 tweets
Charles Lister Profile picture
26 Mar
With the #Biden administration settled in, there's a clear trend emerging in certain circles to swat away long-standing, complex foreign policy challenges -- and #Syria appears to be low-hanging fruit.

'#Syria doesn't matter,' some say... 'It was just never that important.'
It's good for there to be a debate -- & yes, 'great power competition' (#China, #Russia etc.) ought to be *the* priority.

BUT to shove #Syria aside as a minor inconvenience would be profoundly reckless, given the extraordinary costs it's inflicted on global stability since '11.
So far, arguments in favor of '#Syria doesn't matter' can be broken down into 2 camps:

(1) Those who ignore the profound past, current & future costs altogether - or worse - (2) those who astonishingly claim that #Assad, #Russia & #Iran can resolve the crisis & achieve stability
Read 16 tweets
Charles Lister Profile picture
25 Mar
Exclusive -- the March 21 attack on the @UN-deconflicted al-Atareb hospital in NW #Syria involved the use of #Russian "Krasnopol" laser-guided artillery shells, guided precisely to their target by a Russian UAV.

Extensive analysis of munition debris shows a direct correlation.
@UN Shortly after the attack, doctors & rescue workers began recovering remnants of the shells that hit al-Atareb hospital.

In addition to the usual metal shrapnel, they found circuit boards -- a tell-tale sign of precision-guidance tech, in this case, in artillery shells.
@UN That piqued my interest & in the days since, employees of al-Atareb hospital (associated with @sams_usa) gathered all the shell debris, removed it to a safe site & photographed it for analysis.

It soon became clear we were looking at *certain* evidence of Krasnopol munitions.
Read 9 tweets
Charles Lister Profile picture
23 Mar
CC'ing Jan Egeland (@NRC_Egeland) here -- the chair of @antonioguterres's "Senior Advisory Panel" investigating the @UN's "deconfliction" mechanism intended to protect hospitals in #Syria.

The council reports to the UN SG in May.
@NRC_Egeland @antonioguterres @UN Shortly after the #SAA artillery strike on the al-Atareb hospital, rescue workers discovered remnants of the shells, which contained circuit boards -- this is an unusual detail that *could* indicate that the munitions were laser-guided & newly provided by #Russia.
@NRC_Egeland @antonioguterres @UN #Russia has deployed 2K25 Krasnopol guided munitions from #Khmeymim AB, so we know they're in #Syria already -- but whether they're fired by #SAA is another matter.

Either way, it could also indicate the #Russia drone was acting as the laser designator -- marking the target.
Read 4 tweets

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