Thread by @jseldin

BREAKING: @ODNIgov issues assessment on Worldwide Threats a day before intel chiefs testify before lawmakers

"#Beijing, #Moscow, #Tehran, & #Pyongyang have demonstrated the capability & intent to advance their interests at the expense of the UnitedStates...despite the pandemic"

"#China increasingly is a near-peer competitor, challenging the United States in multiple arenas...#Russia is pushing back against #Washington where it can globally, employing techniques up to and including the use of force" per Annual Threat Assessment
dni.gov/files/ODNI/doc…

"#Iran will remain a regional menace w/broader malign influence activities" per @ODNIgov report "#NorthKorea will be a disruptive player on the regional & world stages"

"The effects of the #COVID19 pandemic will continue to strain governments & societies, fueling humanitarian & economic crises, political unrest, & geopolitical competition as countries, such as #China & Russia, seek advantage thru such avenues as 'vaccine diplomacy'" per @ODNIgov

Threat from #climatechange: "Ecological degradation & a changing climate will continue to fuel disease outbreaks, threaten food & water security, & exacerbate political instability and humanitarian crises" per @ODNIgov

Combo of #ClimateChange, #COVID19 causing "increasing potential for surges in migration by #CentralAmerica|n populations" per @ODNIgov

"...reeling from the economic fallout of the COVID19 pandemic & extreme weather, including multiple hurricanes in 2020"

#ISIS #alQaida #Iran's proxies - "Despite leadership losses, terrorist groups have shown great resiliency & are taking advantage of ungoverned areas to rebuild" per @ODNIgov

NEW: Top threats to US in order they appear in new US intelligence annual threat assessment:

1. #China
2. #Russia
3. #Iran
4. #NorthKorea
5. Transnational issues like #ClimateChange #COVID19 #Cyber, crime, #migration and #terrorism

#China: "#Beijing sees increasingly competitive US-China relations as part of an epochal geopolitical shift" per @ODNIgov

"Chinese leaders probably will, however, seek tactical opportunities to reduce tensions with Washington when such opportunities suit their interests"

#China military: "We expect the PLA to continue pursuing overseas military installations and access agreements to enhance its ability to project power" per @ODNIgov report

#China nukes: "China is building a larger & increasingly capable nuclear missile force that is more survivable, more diverse, & on higher alert" per @ODNIgov "...systems designed to manage regional escalation & ensure an intercontinental second-strike capability"

US intel warns #China space station is coming

"We expect a Chinese space station in low Earth orbit (LEO) to be operational between 2022 & 2024" per @ODNIgov

#China #cyber: "China can launch cyber attacks that, at a minimum, can cause localized, temporary disruptions to critical infrastructure within the United States" warns @ODNIgov

#China influence ops: #Beijing "intensifying efforts to shape the political environment in the United States to promote its policy preferences" per @ODNIgov

#Russia "will continue to employ a variety of tacticsthis year meant to undermine US influence" per @ODNIgov

BUT "We expect #Moscow to seek opportunities for pragmatic cooperation...we assess that Russia does not want a direct conflict with US forces" per report

#Russia will pursue "partnerships w/US allies & adversaries alike" per @ODNIgov

Most notable-"Russia’s growing strategic cooperation with #China" per report

NEW: US intelligence report says #Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) "tried to kill opposition activist Aleksey #Navalnyy inside Russia in 2020 w/a fourth-generation chemical agent"

#Russia "well positioned" to "continue destabilization efforts against Ukraine while settlement talks remain stalled and low-level fighting continues" per new @ODNIgov threat assessment

#Russia still top nuclear threat to us per US intel report

"Russia will remain the largest and most capable WMD rival to the #UnitedStates for the foreseeable future as it expands & modernizes its nuclear weapons capabilities" per @ODNIgov

"#Russia is building a large, diverse, & modern set of nonstrategic systems, which are capable of delivering nuclear or conventional warheads" per @ODNIgov "Moscow believes such systems offer options to deter adversaries, control the escalation..."

"#Russia will remain a top cyber threat as it refines and employs its espionage, influence, & attack capabilities" per @ODNIgov assessment

"Russia continues to target critical infrastructure, including underwater cables & industrial control systems" in US, allied countries

"#Russia almost certainly considers #cyber attacks an acceptable option to deter adversaries, control escalation, & prosecute conflicts" per @ODNIgov

#Russia "presents one of the most serious intelligence threat" to US & might share tech/expertise, per @ODNIgov

"Russia will continue to advance its technical collection & surveillance capabilities & probably will share its technology and expertise w/other countries" per report

#Russia focusing on anti-satellite [ASAT] weapons

#Moscow "developing, testing, & fielding an array of nondestructive & destructive counterspace weapons—including jamming & cyberspace capabilities, directed energy weapons, on-orbit capabilities, & ground-based ASAT capabilities"

US intel warns "We expect that #Iran will take risks that could escalate tensions & threaten US & allied interests in the coming year"

"#Iran’s willingness to conduct attacks probably will hinge on its perception of the #UnitedStates’ willingness to respond, its ability to conduct attacks without triggering direct conflict, & the prospect of jeopardizing potential US sanctions relief" per @ODNIgov

US intel cautions #Iran "will be reluctant to engage diplomatically in talks w/the United States in the near term without sanctions or humanitarian relief"

re #JCPOA

NEW: #Iran-nukes: " Iran is not currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons-development activities that we judge would be necessary to produce a nuclear device" despite having resumed some nuclear activities, per @ODNIgov assessment

US intel warns #NorthKorea could soon get even more aggressive

"Kim Jong Un may take a number of aggressive & potentially destabilizing actions to reshape the regional security environment & drive wedges between the United States and its allies" per @ODNIgov

#DPRK actions could include "the resumption of nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) testing" per @ODNIgov

#NorthKorea "will be a #WMD threat for the foreseeable future, because Kim remains strongly committed to the country’s nuclear weapons" per @ODNIgov assessment

NEW: US intelligence assesses chance for peace deal for #Afghanistan "will remain low during the next year"

"The #Taliban is likely to make gains on the battlefield, & the Afghan Government will struggle to hold the Taliban at bay if the coalition withdraws support" per @ODNIgov

#ISIS, #alQaida "remain the greatest Sunni terrorist threats to US interests overseas" US intel warns in new report

"They also seek to conduct attacks inside the United States, although sustained US & allied CT pressure has broadly degraded their capability" per @ODNIgov

"#ISIS remains capable of waging a prolonged insurgency in #Iraq & #Syria & leading its global organization" per @ODNIgov

#Daesh "will attempt to expand its insurgency" per report, adding "The appeal of ISIS’s ideology almost certainly will endure"

#alQaida senior leadership "has suffered severe losses in the past few years" but affiliates in #Sahel #Somalia "have made gains" per @ODNIgov report

Fastest growing terrorism risk in parts of #Europe - white supremacists, per @ODNIgov

"#Australia, #Germany, #Norway, & the #UnitedKingdom consider white racially or ethnically motivated violent extremists, including Neo-#Nazi groups, to be the fastest growing terrorist threat"

"Violent extremists who promote the superiority of the white race have been responsible for at least 26 lethal attacks that killed more than 141 people and for dozens of disrupted plots in the West since 2015" per @ODNIgov