Jeff Seldin Profile picture
13 Apr, 37 tweets, 27 min read
BREAKING: @ODNIgov issues assessment on Worldwide Threats a day before intel chiefs testify before lawmakers

"#Beijing, #Moscow, #Tehran, & #Pyongyang have demonstrated the capability & intent to advance their interests at the expense of the UnitedStates...despite the pandemic"
"#China increasingly is a near-peer competitor, challenging the United States in multiple arenas...#Russia is pushing back against #Washington where it can globally, employing techniques up to and including the use of force" per Annual Threat Assessment…
"#Iran will remain a regional menace w/broader malign influence activities" per @ODNIgov report "#NorthKorea will be a disruptive player on the regional & world stages"
"The effects of the #COVID19 pandemic will continue to strain governments & societies, fueling humanitarian & economic crises, political unrest, & geopolitical competition as countries, such as #China & Russia, seek advantage thru such avenues as 'vaccine diplomacy'" per @ODNIgov
Threat from #climatechange: "Ecological degradation & a changing climate will continue to fuel disease outbreaks, threaten food & water security, & exacerbate political instability and humanitarian crises" per @ODNIgov
Combo of #ClimateChange, #COVID19 causing "increasing potential for surges in migration by #CentralAmerica|n populations" per @ODNIgov

"...reeling from the economic fallout of the COVID19 pandemic & extreme weather, including multiple hurricanes in 2020"
#ISIS #alQaida #Iran's proxies - "Despite leadership losses, terrorist groups have shown great resiliency & are taking advantage of ungoverned areas to rebuild" per @ODNIgov
NEW: Top threats to US in order they appear in new US intelligence annual threat assessment:

1. #China
2. #Russia
3. #Iran
4. #NorthKorea
5. Transnational issues like #ClimateChange #COVID19 #Cyber, crime, #migration and #terrorism
#China: "#Beijing sees increasingly competitive US-China relations as part of an epochal geopolitical shift" per @ODNIgov

"Chinese leaders probably will, however, seek tactical opportunities to reduce tensions with Washington when such opportunities suit their interests"
#China military: "We expect the PLA to continue pursuing overseas military installations and access agreements to enhance its ability to project power" per @ODNIgov report
#China nukes: "China is building a larger & increasingly capable nuclear missile force that is more survivable, more diverse, & on higher alert" per @ODNIgov " designed to manage regional escalation & ensure an intercontinental second-strike capability"
US intel warns #China space station is coming

"We expect a Chinese space station in low Earth orbit (LEO) to be operational between 2022 & 2024" per @ODNIgov
#China #cyber: "China can launch cyber attacks that, at a minimum, can cause localized, temporary disruptions to critical infrastructure within the United States" warns @ODNIgov
#China influence ops: #Beijing "intensifying efforts to shape the political environment in the United States to promote its policy preferences" per @ODNIgov
#Russia "will continue to employ a variety of tacticsthis year meant to undermine US influence" per @ODNIgov

BUT "We expect #Moscow to seek opportunities for pragmatic cooperation...we assess that Russia does not want a direct conflict with US forces" per report
#Russia will pursue "partnerships w/US allies & adversaries alike" per @ODNIgov

Most notable-"Russia’s growing strategic cooperation with #China" per report
NEW: US intelligence report says #Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) "tried to kill opposition activist Aleksey #Navalnyy inside Russia in 2020 w/a fourth-generation chemical agent"
#Russia "well positioned" to "continue destabilization efforts against Ukraine while settlement talks remain stalled and low-level fighting continues" per new @ODNIgov threat assessment
#Russia still top nuclear threat to us per US intel report

"Russia will remain the largest and most capable WMD rival to the #UnitedStates for the foreseeable future as it expands & modernizes its nuclear weapons capabilities" per @ODNIgov
"#Russia is building a large, diverse, & modern set of nonstrategic systems, which are capable of delivering nuclear or conventional warheads" per @ODNIgov "Moscow believes such systems offer options to deter adversaries, control the escalation..."
"#Russia will remain a top cyber threat as it refines and employs its espionage, influence, & attack capabilities" per @ODNIgov assessment

"Russia continues to target critical infrastructure, including underwater cables & industrial control systems" in US, allied countries
"#Russia almost certainly considers #cyber attacks an acceptable option to deter adversaries, control escalation, & prosecute conflicts" per @ODNIgov
#Russia "presents one of the most serious intelligence threat" to US & might share tech/expertise, per @ODNIgov

"Russia will continue to advance its technical collection & surveillance capabilities & probably will share its technology and expertise w/other countries" per report
#Russia focusing on anti-satellite [ASAT] weapons

#Moscow "developing, testing, & fielding an array of nondestructive & destructive counterspace weapons—including jamming & cyberspace capabilities, directed energy weapons, on-orbit capabilities, & ground-based ASAT capabilities"
US intel warns "We expect that #Iran will take risks that could escalate tensions & threaten US & allied interests in the coming year"
"#Iran’s willingness to conduct attacks probably will hinge on its perception of the #UnitedStates’ willingness to respond, its ability to conduct attacks without triggering direct conflict, & the prospect of jeopardizing potential US sanctions relief" per @ODNIgov
US intel cautions #Iran "will be reluctant to engage diplomatically in talks w/the United States in the near term without sanctions or humanitarian relief"

NEW: #Iran-nukes: " Iran is not currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons-development activities that we judge would be necessary to produce a nuclear device" despite having resumed some nuclear activities, per @ODNIgov assessment
US intel warns #NorthKorea could soon get even more aggressive

"Kim Jong Un may take a number of aggressive & potentially destabilizing actions to reshape the regional security environment & drive wedges between the United States and its allies" per @ODNIgov
#DPRK actions could include "the resumption of nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) testing" per @ODNIgov
#NorthKorea "will be a #WMD threat for the foreseeable future, because Kim remains strongly committed to the country’s nuclear weapons" per @ODNIgov assessment
NEW: US intelligence assesses chance for peace deal for #Afghanistan "will remain low during the next year"

"The #Taliban is likely to make gains on the battlefield, & the Afghan Government will struggle to hold the Taliban at bay if the coalition withdraws support" per @ODNIgov
#ISIS, #alQaida "remain the greatest Sunni terrorist threats to US interests overseas" US intel warns in new report

"They also seek to conduct attacks inside the United States, although sustained US & allied CT pressure has broadly degraded their capability" per @ODNIgov
"#ISIS remains capable of waging a prolonged insurgency in #Iraq & #Syria & leading its global organization" per @ODNIgov

#Daesh "will attempt to expand its insurgency" per report, adding "The appeal of ISIS’s ideology almost certainly will endure"
#alQaida senior leadership "has suffered severe losses in the past few years" but affiliates in #Sahel #Somalia "have made gains" per @ODNIgov report
Fastest growing terrorism risk in parts of #Europe - white supremacists, per @ODNIgov

"#Australia, #Germany, #Norway, & the #UnitedKingdom consider white racially or ethnically motivated violent extremists, including Neo-#Nazi groups, to be the fastest growing terrorist threat"
"Violent extremists who promote the superiority of the white race have been responsible for at least 26 lethal attacks that killed more than 141 people and for dozens of disrupted plots in the West since 2015" per @ODNIgov

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More from @jseldin

13 Apr
"@NATO remains the strategic center of gravity" @US_EUCOM Commander Gen Tod Wolters tells Senate Armed Services Committee
"That will improve our capabilities in all domains" @US_EUCOM's Gen Wolters tells lawmakers when asked about the announcement 500 more troops are headed to #Germany
.@US_EUCOM commander making the case for the F-35 joint strike fighter jet

"The F-35 is very important" Gen Wolters tells @JimInhofe "We in the US need F-35s in #Europe ... to make sure we have the competitive advantage necessary" vs #Russia
Read 13 tweets
13 Apr
NEW: @USArmyEURAF getting 2 new units - about 500 soldiers w/a Multi-Domain Task Force - & will retain 3 sites that were to be returned to #Germany "due to growing operational requirements in the European theater"…
The move comes less than a year after the Trump administration announced it would be moving a substantial number of forces out of #Germany
"New strategies and a continuously changing operations environment requires more capacity" per MajGen Chris Mohan, commanding general for 21st Theater Sustainment Command, in statement
Read 6 tweets
12 Apr
NEW: @DeptofDefense withholding findings of investigation into the #alShabaab attack on the #MandaBay airfield in #Kenya -which killed 1 US servicemember & 2 US contractors- pending "an independent review" by "a 4-star general officer"…
"It is the Secretary’s desire to ensure there is a full examination & consideration of the contributing factors ... & that appropriate action is taken to reduce the risk of future occurrence" per @PentagonPresSec "The families impacted deserve nothing less"
Review will be led by @TRADOC Commander, Gen Paul Funk

"An independent review will provide added insight, perspective, and the ability to assess the totality of this tragic event involving multiple Military Services & Department of Defense components" per @PentagonPresSec
Read 8 tweets
12 Apr
#Russia|n hackers did breach the email of the @DHSgov front office as part of #SolarWinds hack, former acting secretary Chad Wolf tells @Heritage

"They're all unclassified email accounts..." he adds
"The access is what I was most concerned about" former acting @DHSgov secretary Chad Wolf said of "when they told me, 'Hey, look, your account, 1 of your email accounts...could be hacked'"

"If they have the ability to do that, what else do they have the ability to do?"
"Just the fact that they're able to do that was my primary concern" per ex @DHSgov acting secretary Chad Wolf re #Russia-#SolarWinds hack

"The fact that they got my email & knew that I was running late to meetings or had a schedule change, not that big a deal" he tells @Heritage
Read 4 tweets
12 Apr
Per @CJTFOIR, 5 #ISIS fighters were killed, 10 hideouts & 3 tunnels destroyed, and equipment/supplies confiscated
#Iraq also targeted #ISIS locations in the area w/airstrikes just last month
Read 7 tweets
12 Apr
New nominations from @POTUS to fill out @DHSgov

Deputy Sec - John Tien

@CISAgov Director - Jen Easterly

@USCIS director - Ur Jaddou

@CBP director - Chris Magnus

General Counsel - Jonathan Meyer

UnderSec for Strategy - Robert Silvers
Nominations of Jen Easterly to head @CISAgov and Chris Inglis to be National Cyber Director getting bipartisan praise from @CyberSolarium commissioners @SenAngusKing @JimLangevin @RepGallagher @SenSasse
.@DHSgov @SecMayorkas on the latest @POTUS nominations
Read 7 tweets

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