New US #IndoPacific #Strategy!

Read full text here: whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…

"The #PRC..pursues a sphere of influence in the Indo-#Pacific & seeks to become the world’s most influential power. The PRC’s coercion & aggression spans the globe, but..is most acute in..Indo-Pacific."
#INDOPACIFIC: The Region by the #s

#POPULATION: Over half the world’s people, including 58% of youth

#ECONOMY: 60% of global GDP

#GROWTH: 2/3 of global economic growth

#GEOGRAPHY: 65% of the world’s oceans &🌊 25% of its land

>#STRATEGY: whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…
From the new U.S. #IndoPacific #Strategy:

"The United States is the leading international provider
of education to students from the Indo-#Pacific—nearly 68% of international students studying in the United States hail from the region..."

Read full text: whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…
"2-way trade between the US & the region totaled $1.75 trillion in 2020, & it supports >5MM #IndoPacific jobs. FDI from the US totaled >$969B in 2020 & has nearly doubled in the last decade."

US Indo-#Pacific #Strategy details region's critical importance:whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…
"US remains the #1 investment partner in #ASEAN member countries—investing >...next 3...combined. And the United States is the primary exporter of services to the region, which, in turn, fuels regional growth."

From the #IndoPacific #Strategy of the US:

whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…
"#Integrated #deterrence will be the cornerstone of our approach.

We will more tightly integrate our efforts across #warfighting domains & the spectrum of conflict to ensure that the US, alongside our allies & partners, can dissuade or #defeat #aggression in any form or domain."
"We will also work... to maintain #peace & stability in the #TaiwanStrait, including by supporting #Taiwan’s self-#defense capabilities, to ensure an environment in which Taiwan’s #future is determined peacefully in accordance with the wishes & best interests of Taiwan’s people."
Among "ten core lines of effort in the next 12 to 24 months":

"We will open new embassies & consulates, particularly in SEAsia & the #Pacific Islands, & increase our strength in existing ones...

expand @USCG presence & cooperation in SE & S #Asia & the #PacificIslands...."
More action items from #IndoPacific #Strategy:

"We will also expand the role of people-to-people exchange, including the @PeaceCorps.

Within the U.S. government, we will ensure we have the necessary capacity & expertise to meet the region’s challenges."

whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…
Key emphasis in new U.S. #IndoPacific #Strategy:

"The US will defend our interests, deter #military aggression against our own country & our allies & partners—including across the #Taiwan Strait—& promote regional #security...."

whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…
#AUKUS is both an #Allied destination (#SSNs) & a journey (big benefits along the way):

"in addition, we will deepen cooperation & enhance interoperability through a concrete program of work on advanced capabilities, including #cyber, #AI, #quantum tech & undersea capabilities."
"We have entered a consequential new period of American foreign policy that will demand more of the
US in the #IndoPacific than has been asked of us since..[#WorldWarII].Our vital interests in the region have become ever-clearer just as they have become more difficult to protect"
"The #IndoPacific’s future depends on the choices we make now. The *DECISIVE DECADE* before us will
determine..whether we can sustain the principles of openness, transparency & inclusivity that have fueled the region’s success."

#THREAD

#DecadeOfDanger:

bakerinstitute.org/research/us-ch…

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More from @AndrewSErickson

Jan 16
Now Out in Paperback! “#China Goes to #Sea: #Maritime Transformation in Comparative Historical Perspective”

amazon.com/China-Goes-Sea…

@NavalWarCollege @ChinaMaritime is proud to publish this new version w/ @NavalInstitute @USNIBooks!

Come for the #maps, stay for the #history...
Honored to have #JonathanSpence’s endorsement:

“The maritime #history of #China has long been a neglected field..China Goes to Sea bring[s] that knowledge-gap to an end..will be an indispensable companion to those readers seeking to understand where China’s navy may be heading.”
As European #naval powers & even the @USNavy struggle with ship numbers, #China has gone to #sea.

Represents the reversal of a great historical trend that began 600 years ago, when China withdrew from the seas & European naval expansion spread Western influence around the globe.
Read 34 tweets
Jan 1
#Global #PartyPanopticon:

#PRC "gov't, which has built an extensive digital infrastructure & security apparatus to ctrl dissent on its own platforms, is going to even greater lengths to extend its internet dragnet to unmask & silence those who criticize"

nytimes.com/2021/12/31/bus…
...the #PRC "on @Twitter, @Facebook & other international #SocialMedia.

These new investigations, targeting sites blocked inside #China, are relying on sophisticated technological methods to expand the reach of #Chinese authorities & the list of targets"

nytimes.com/2021/12/31/bus…
"To hunt people, [#PRC] security forces use advanced investigation #software, #PublicRecords & #databases to find all their #PersonalInformation & international #SocialMedia presence.

The operations sometimes target those living beyond #China’s borders."

nytimes.com/2021/12/31/bus…
Read 12 tweets
Dec 20, 2021
#Read this new #Report while there’s still time to act!

bakerinstitute.org/research/us-ch…

“US-#China Competition Enters the Decade of Max Danger: #Policy Ideas to Avoid Losing the 2020s”

My latest with Gabe Collins @BakerInstitute!

@RiceUniversity
@RiceUNews
@CES_Baker_Inst
#Xi
#Taiwan
As #PRC/#CCP power peaks over this decade, #Xi may seek #Taiwan as historic prize.

To protect their security & rules-based order, US/Allies must mobilize immediately to deter aggression.

The mission is vital, the stakes are high, & the clock is ticking.

bit.ly/PLA2027 Image
US/Allies/#Taiwan now face “#DecadeOfDanger” w/ peaking #Xi/#CCP/#PRC as #China has extreme version of “S-Curved #slowdown.”

Xi’s risk acceptance will likely be amplified by his track record of largely-uncountered revisionist actions vs. neighbors & RBO.

bakerinstitute.org/research/us-ch…
Read 42 tweets
Sep 13, 2021
There’s a gaping (loop)hole in #climate reporting, calculations & countermeasures—#BlueCarbon!

Must finally put #Seabed #CarbonSink on agenda for #COP26...

Here too #China leads world in #carbon damage—by far.

Time for accountability on #RoadToGlasgow!

foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/10/chi…
#Ocean covers 71% of world’s surface..<10% mapped w/ modern sonar.

Salt marshes, mangroves, seagrass beds & ultra-deep abyssal #seabed absorb large quantities of #CO2 from atmosphere & balancing critical #climate systems.

Disrupting risks grave & potentially irreversible harms
.@Nature: “#marine sediments are the largest pool of organic #carbon on the planet.”

Est. vol. ~7 trillion metric tons—>3X cumulative anthropogenic #CO2 emissions since 1750.

Bottom trawl #fishing & #seabed mining—both #PRC-led—risk damaging disruption.

foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/10/chi…
Read 25 tweets
Mar 29, 2021
New @ForeignPolicy article + slide deck:

7 #China #MaritimeMilitia ships ID'ed @ #WhitsunReef/ #UnionBanks in #SouthChinaSea!

Great to publish w/ @NavalWarCollege @ChinaMaritime colleague @rdmartinson88. And always a pleasure to work w/ @BeijingPalmer!

foreignpolicy.com/2021/03/29/chi…
#BottomLine:

***At the very least, 7 People's #ArmedForces #MaritimeMilitia (#PAFMM) vessels have been operating at the #Spratly Islands’ #UnionBanks, including #WhitsunReef—both during the past month & multiple times over the past year.

foreignpolicy.com/2021/03/29/chi…

@ForeignPolicy
Thanks to research w/ @rdmartinson88, building on @GregPoling's

Spotlight's now on #Taishan #PAFMM vessels #Yuetaiyu 18000, 18111, 18222, 18333, 18555, 18666, 18777, 18888 & 18999—“The Fancheng Nine”—from a #FarSeas Militia #Squadron (#远海民兵大队) that doesn’t actually fish...
Read 14 tweets
Mar 24, 2021
Ambassador Huang, allow me to recommend:

The #China #MaritimeMilitia #Bookshelf--

andrewerickson.com/2021/03/the-ch…

Includes multiple official items from your own government on your nation's #ThirdSeaForce.

China is often more transparent in #Chinese :)

Truth best limits "speculation"
And here's #China's own official state media documenting progress of its #MaritimeMilitia... in plain #English!

english.chinamil.com.cn/news-channels/…

News Channels/China Military News
Maritime militia increases drills, expands in scope
Source: China Daily Editor: Yao Jianing
2016-02-02 17:16
But don't take my word for it, read #ChinaDaily:
"As the People's Liberation Army upgrades its navy, commissioning dozens of new ships under a watchful global eye,a less noticed force,China's maritime militia, is also improving its operational capability."
english.chinamil.com.cn/news-channels/…
Read 14 tweets

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