Thread by @jseldin

NEW: #Russia's #SnakeIsland retreat - "We not believe there is any credence to what Russia is saying, that this is a gesture of good will" per a senior US defense official

Says it is more abt #Ukraine's efforts & use of weapons like #harpoon missiles

#Russia's #SnakeIsland retreat - "It does make it a lot easier to defend #Odesa & in the future to open up those sea lanes" per a senior US defense official

Fighting in the #Donbas is a "grinding war of attrition" per a senior US defense official

Says #Russia has not yet been able to take #Lysychansk or the nearby oil refinery

US assesses missile that hit #Ukrainian shopping center was an anti-ship weapon that would not have been optimal for accuracy, per a senior US defense official

2 NASAMS heading to #Ukraine - co-producedw/#Norway - is a @NATO-standard air defense system, per a senior US defense official

Says this is part of the effort to update Ukraine's air defense from a #Soviet-era system to a modern one

#Drones are still a factor in #Ukraine - still being used proficiently by Ukrainian forces, especially the #PhoenixGhost system, per a senior US defense official

Use of the anti-ship missile that hit #Ukraine shopping mall - #Russia "would have known it would have had this collateral damage" per a senior US defense official

Official could not speak as to why Russia chose to use the missile in question

#Russia's advance on the battlefield best described as "halting" per a senior US defense official, who says Russian forces taking heavy losses as they go

#Ukraine forces using #HIMARS - "systematically selecting targets & accurately hitting them...degrading #Russia|n capabilities" per a senior US defense official

#Ukraine telling US that US provided counter-artillery radar systems "working very well" per a senior US defense official

"#Russia is paying a very steep price" for current "bits of gains" in the #Donbas, per a senior US defense official

"Ukraine is paying a very great price" too, during the fighting, per the official

#Kherson - "The Ukrainians have applied additional pressure on #Russia|n forces in that area" per a senior US defense official

"The way we view this development is that the Ukrainians were very successful at applying significant pressure on the #Russia|ns, including by using those #Harpoon missiles that they recently acquired to attack a resupply ship" per senior US defense official

"When you realize how barren & deserted Snake Island is, you understand the importance of resupply" per senior US defense official

"The #Ukrainians made it very hard for the #Russia|ns to sustain their operations there, made them very vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes"

#Russia|n retreat from #SnakeIsland - "This isn't a panacea of course, but it does make it a lot easier to defend Odessa and in the future to be able to open up those sealanes" per sr US defense official

"But just to underscore, the real challenge in the
#BlackSea of course is #Russia's blockade" adds the senior US defense official

"Everybody's watching the fighting in the #Donbas very closely" per senior US defense official "It is still this grinding war of attrition"

#Lysychansk update: "We are seeing #Russia claiming dominance" per senior US defense official "But I will tell you there are still active fighting in the in the town & fighting particularly around the oil refinery"

#Lysychansk - "This is another one of these examples where we see #Russia paying such a high price for tiny bits of gains in terms of territory" per senior US defense official

#Russia's June 27 attack on a shopping center in #Kremenchuk that killed at least 18 ppl - "We do believe that the missile that was used was highly likely designed as an anti-ship weapon" per senior US defense official

"This is not a weapon that would have been optimized for accuracy against ground targets in an urban environment" per sr US defense official on anti ship missile which hit #Kremenchuk

"It's just yet another example of how Russia is using systems in a reckless fashion that result in significant collateral damage" per sr US defense official on anti ship missile which hit #Kremenchuk shopping center Monday

Why did #Russia use an anti-ship missile vs #Kremenchuk?

"I can't speculate on on Russian motives, but I can say that they certainly knew what it was & they would have known that it that it could have had this this collateral damage" per sr US defense official

"It's important to be able to start to help the #Ukrainians transition their air defense system from what is now a #Soviet-type system to be able to introduce some of this modern technology" per sr US defense official

"The #Ukrainians are doing a magnificent job of employing their existing air defense systems but we all know that #Soviet-type system means that it's #Russian made" per sr US defense official "... so over time it will be harder to sustain with the spare parts"

"We're seeing them [#Ukraine] having a good deal of success in employing these these #HIMARS, to include things like targeting [#Russia|n] command posts" per sr US defense official

"So this is a very positive development in the fight in the east"