Jeff Seldin Profile picture
Jul 1 26 tweets 15 min read
NEW: #Russia's #SnakeIsland retreat - "We not believe there is any credence to what Russia is saying, that this is a gesture of good will" per a senior US defense official

Says it is more abt #Ukraine's efforts & use of weapons like #harpoon missiles
#Russia's #SnakeIsland retreat - "It does make it a lot easier to defend #Odesa & in the future to open up those sea lanes" per a senior US defense official
Fighting in the #Donbas is a "grinding war of attrition" per a senior US defense official

Says #Russia has not yet been able to take #Lysychansk or the nearby oil refinery
US assesses missile that hit #Ukrainian shopping center was an anti-ship weapon that would not have been optimal for accuracy, per a senior US defense official
2 NASAMS heading to #Ukraine - co-producedw/#Norway - is a @NATO-standard air defense system, per a senior US defense official

Says this is part of the effort to update Ukraine's air defense from a #Soviet-era system to a modern one
#Drones are still a factor in #Ukraine - still being used proficiently by Ukrainian forces, especially the #PhoenixGhost system, per a senior US defense official
Use of the anti-ship missile that hit #Ukraine shopping mall - #Russia "would have known it would have had this collateral damage" per a senior US defense official

Official could not speak as to why Russia chose to use the missile in question
#Russia's advance on the battlefield best described as "halting" per a senior US defense official, who says Russian forces taking heavy losses as they go
#Ukraine forces using #HIMARS - "systematically selecting targets & accurately hitting them...degrading #Russia|n capabilities" per a senior US defense official
#Ukraine telling US that US provided counter-artillery radar systems "working very well" per a senior US defense official
"#Russia is paying a very steep price" for current "bits of gains" in the #Donbas, per a senior US defense official

"Ukraine is paying a very great price" too, during the fighting, per the official
#Kherson - "The Ukrainians have applied additional pressure on #Russia|n forces in that area" per a senior US defense official
"The way we view this development is that the Ukrainians were very successful at applying significant pressure on the #Russia|ns, including by using those #Harpoon missiles that they recently acquired to attack a resupply ship" per senior US defense official
"When you realize how barren & deserted Snake Island is, you understand the importance of resupply" per senior US defense official

"The #Ukrainians made it very hard for the #Russia|ns to sustain their operations there, made them very vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes"
#Russia|n retreat from #SnakeIsland - "This isn't a panacea of course, but it does make it a lot easier to defend Odessa and in the future to be able to open up those sealanes" per sr US defense official
"But just to underscore, the real challenge in the
#BlackSea of course is #Russia's blockade" adds the senior US defense official
"Everybody's watching the fighting in the #Donbas very closely" per senior US defense official "It is still this grinding war of attrition"
#Lysychansk update: "We are seeing #Russia claiming dominance" per senior US defense official "But I will tell you there are still active fighting in the in the town & fighting particularly around the oil refinery"
#Lysychansk - "This is another one of these examples where we see #Russia paying such a high price for tiny bits of gains in terms of territory" per senior US defense official
#Russia's June 27 attack on a shopping center in #Kremenchuk that killed at least 18 ppl - "We do believe that the missile that was used was highly likely designed as an anti-ship weapon" per senior US defense official
"This is not a weapon that would have been optimized for accuracy against ground targets in an urban environment" per sr US defense official on anti ship missile which hit #Kremenchuk
"It's just yet another example of how Russia is using systems in a reckless fashion that result in significant collateral damage" per sr US defense official on anti ship missile which hit #Kremenchuk shopping center Monday
Why did #Russia use an anti-ship missile vs #Kremenchuk?

"I can't speculate on on Russian motives, but I can say that they certainly knew what it was & they would have known that it that it could have had this this collateral damage" per sr US defense official
"It's important to be able to start to help the #Ukrainians transition their air defense system from what is now a #Soviet-type system to be able to introduce some of this modern technology" per sr US defense official
"The #Ukrainians are doing a magnificent job of employing their existing air defense systems but we all know that #Soviet-type system means that it's #Russian made" per sr US defense official "... so over time it will be harder to sustain with the spare parts"
"We're seeing them [#Ukraine] having a good deal of success in employing these these #HIMARS, to include things like targeting [#Russia|n] command posts" per sr US defense official

"So this is a very positive development in the fight in the east"

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More from @jseldin

Jun 29
Happening now: Most destabilizing factor in the world today - "There are so many" @ODNIgov Dir Avril Haines tells @SilveradoPolicy @Google Leadership & Service Forum
NEW: "The mismatch between what we perceive to be #Putin's even near-term military objectives & the fact that his military can't actually achieve them is a destabilizing factor" per @ODNIgov Dir Avril Haines "It has raised the potential for escalation"

#Russia-#Ukraine
Another destabilizing factor - "The way in which disruptive technologies are emerging in many respects, the kind of convergence of so many fields of science" per @ODNIgov’s Haines
Read 36 tweets
Jun 29
NEW: Negative views of #China "remain at or near historic highs" in 19 countries surveyed by @pewresearch

Negative views of #Beijing highest in:

#Japan 87%
#Australia 86%
#SouthKorea 80%
#Sweden 83%
US 82%
#Netherlands 75%
#Germany 74%
#Canada 74%
pewresearch.org/global/2022/06…
"Adults in #Greece, the #UnitedKingdom & the #UnitedStates have become significantly more critical of #China over the past year" per @pewresearch

"Unfavorable views of China have gone up by 21 percentage points in #Poland & Israel & 15 points in #Hungary..."
"#Belgium stands as the only country where fewer people hold an unfavorable view of #China this year than last year (61%, down from 67%)" per @pewresearch
Read 5 tweets
Jun 29
Happening now: @NATO SecGen @jensstoltenberg news conference in #MadridNATO22

Says Madrid Summit reinforces an alliance and world view "based on norms & values instead of brute violence" Image
#Indo-pacific countries at #MadridNATO22 - "We appreciate very much the partnership with them" per @NATO's @jensstoltenberg, asked abt #China

China's coercive behavior "matters for every country concerned abt the freedom of navigation" & trade in the region
"It's #Russia that has walked away from this attempt to build more trust, more partnership" per @NATO's @jensstoltenberg

"Our relationship w/#Russia is at the lowest level since the #ColdWar but there is no doubt that the responsibility for that is Russia"
Read 9 tweets
Jun 29
#Russia's "incremental" advance on #Lysychansk - Russian forces gained 2km on approach to the Lysychansk oil refinery, to the south of the town, per assessment by #Britain's @DefenceHQ
#Britain's @DefenceHQ warns of more civilian casualties from #Russia|n missile strikes as #Moscow's war in #Ukraine drags on

Cites "Russia’s shortage of more modern precision strike weapons & the professional shortcomings of their targeting planners"
#Britain's @DefenceHQ also notes #Russia's appetite for risk/civilian deaths in #Ukraine

"Russian planners highly likely remain willing to accept a high level of collateral damage when they perceive military necessity in striking a target”
Read 4 tweets
Jun 27
"The #Ukrainian fighter has demonstrated an ability to win in a level of adversity that is is just surprising in many cases" per sr US defense official
#Sievierodonetsk - "The small number of #Ukrainians that held the Russians at #Sievierodonetsk for as long as they did is really something I think we'll probably all study in the future" per sr US defense official
"When they [#Ukraine forces] chose to leave #Sievierodonetsk, they chose to do it of their own accord & to give that up in order to to move to better prepared locations for the continuing of that defense" per sr US defense official
Read 4 tweets
Jun 27
Day 124 of #Russia war in #Ukraine: 4 #HIMARS in Ukraine - "All indications are they are employing them very well" per senior US defense official

Says US working to get the additional 4 HIMARS in country, training wrapping up soon
#Russian missile strikes vs #Kyiv - "We're not quite sure abt the #Russian objective of the strikes", per senior US defense official

Says could be protest vs #G7 or due to introduction of #HIMARS to #Ukraine
Little #Russia|n movement out of #Severodonestk, per senior US defense official
Read 19 tweets

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