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Jul 25 • 4 tweets • 13 min read
🚨FOMC preview ...🧵

Target rate probabilities for July 27 (Wed) between 225 and 275 with 3x as much probability on 225-250 (75 bps).

#rates #bonds #federalreserve #us #UnitedStates #fed #macroeconomics #EconTwitter #tightening #riskoff #stocks #riskassets #CentralBanks
Fed will be data driven.

Currently, the market is factoring in target rate probabilities (Dec 2022 FOMC meeting) at 325-375 bps.

#rates #bonds #federalreserve #us #UnitedStates #fed #macroeconomics #EconTwitter #FOMC #tightening #riskoff #stocks #riskassets #CentralBanks
📉Desired demand reduction is visible.

Consumer confidence and subsequently, Retail is taking a massive beating.

JP Morgan global aggregates. 👇

#rates #bonds #federalreserve #us #UnitedStates #fed #macroeconomics #EconTwitter #FOMC #tightening #riskoff #stocks #riskassets
🌩️ Meanwhile, with the hawkish central banks stance is driving the desired effect.

Developed Market PMI 👇
#rates #bonds #federalreserve #us #UnitedStates #fed #macroeconomics #EconTwitter #FOMC #tightening #riskoff #stocks #riskassets #CentralBanks

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More from @trendwhizo

trendwhizo Profile picture
Jul 25
🚨 Less than usual proportion of cos are beating earnings estimates. 👇

#earnings #stocks #STR #estimates
$SPY $QQQ $WMT $TSLA $GME
🚨 S&P 500 earnings growth in CQ2 2022 👇

#earnings #stocks #STR #estimates
$SPY $QQQ $WMT $TSLA $GME
🚨 S&P 500 revenue actuals vs estimates in CQ2 22 👇

#earnings #stocks #STR #estimates #revenues #results $SPY $QQQ $WMT $TSLA $GME $AMZN $META $GOOGL $AAPL
Read 4 tweets
trendwhizo Profile picture
Jul 20
🚨 Check out this @TwitterSpaces on credit insights hosted by @profplum99 (Mike Green) with @Volatilysmile
👇🏽

Esp timely with iTraxx hitting 2 day tightening next to Covid levels when Fed started Corporate Asset purchase peogram.

#credit #swaps #bonds #defaults #CDS
🔥 iTraxx ramp

Real possibility of idiosyncratic risk for specific cos exposed to specific factors 👇

#credit #swaps #bonds #defaults #CDS #leveredloans #hedgefunds #pods #creditfunds
I received bunch of DMs about iTraxx.

For understanding the same, please check out this link:

ihsmarkit.com/products/marki…

iTraxx indices are a family of European, Asian and emerging market tradable credit default swap indices.

#credit #swaps #bonds #defaults #CDS #leveredloans
Read 8 tweets
trendwhizo Profile picture
Jul 19
$TSLA With NTM EV/Sales of 7.2x and NTM EV/EBITDA of 30.7x & FCF yield of 1.5%,#Tesla announces earnings tomorrow.

Cons est:
Rev : 17.09B (13% YoY gr). Last 8Qs, it has beat on Rev. Avg: +5.7%

EBITDA: 3.52B
Net Income: 2.32B
Gr Mrgn: 25%

#Tesla #earnings #preview
$TSLA - For past 8Qs, the NLP analyses of transcript indicates, the Co officials deflect significantly to analyst questions.

Other than Jan 2022, the 8 quarters price reaction has been well within implied move as measured by options

Src: @Sentieo

#Tesla #earnings #preview
$TSLA's #BTC holding, if held since purchase will be a headwind to earnings.

#Bitcoin #digitalassets #cryptocurrencies #doge #heatwave
Read 4 tweets
trendwhizo Profile picture
Jul 19
🚨 $AAPL : Payment card issuers sue @apple for abusing it's market powers to thwart competition in Apple Pay mobile wallet.

Article 🔗 in thread 👇

#Apple #payments #paymenttech
$AAPL class action lawsuit for abusive practices to thwart competition for it's @Apple Pay mobile wallet👇

#Apple #payments #paymenttech

reuters.com/business/finan…
$AAPL: The class action lawsuit is kicked off by Affinity Credit Union - alleged that @apple charging the card issuers with fees is anticompetitive.
Read 4 tweets
trendwhizo Profile picture
May 9
🚨Worth studying: 👇
"The Anatomy of the Bond Market Turbulence of 1994" - Bank for International Settlements

link in thread below. 🧵

#banks #riskparity #assetallocation #risk #riskmanagement #rates #us10y #bonds

1/ ImageImageImage
2/

Link to the paper from Bank of International Settlements

#banks #riskparity #assetallocation #risk #riskmanagement #rates #us10y #bonds

bis.org/publ/work32.pdf
3/

📉@FortuneMagazine's coverage in 2013 for the 1994 Great Bond Massacre.

#banks #riskparity #assetallocation #risk #riskmanagement #rates #us10y #bonds

fortune.com/2013/02/03/the…
Read 8 tweets
trendwhizo Profile picture
May 7
As #pandemic induced #digitaltransformation rush abates, SaaS companies face tough YoY growth comparables
+
#economic headwinds
=
Normalization of valuations back to pre-pandemic levels.

🧵

1/
2/
 $TEAM : Atlassian had a massive run to over 60x EV/Sales (NTM).

22E Rev: 2.8B
23E Rev: 3.5B @ 26% gr
GM 85% range
EBITDA margin : 25% for 2022 but decelerating to teens in 2023

Src: @Sentieo
#SaaS #software #tech #news #Nasdaq $NDX $IGV #hypergrowth #growth #trendwhizo Image
3/
 $SNOW: Snowflake ran to over 120x EV/Sales (NTM) but normalizing to 24x, a premium to data peers due to superior growth profile

22E Rev: 1.22B
23E Rev: 2B (66% gr)
22E GM 60-70%

Src: @Sentieo
#SaaS #software #tech #news #Nasdaq $NDX $IGV #hypergrowth #growth #trendwhizo Image
Read 6 tweets

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