The #BullBearReport is out.
The #rally runs into resistance and backtracks as #overbought conditions slow the #bulls. Is the run over, or just resting? We review the #FOMC minutes, what it means for #investors, the #technical backdrop and #allocations.
realinvestmentadvice.com/fomc-minutes-e…
At 2-standard deviations above the 50-dma, and the 200-dma acting as resistance, the #market pullback, as discussed last week, was expected. Support levels reside just below between 4000 and 4160.
realinvestmentadvice.com/fomc-minutes-e…
Great note from BofA this weekend.
“Applying a 20th century PE of 15x gets you to an S&P500 index of 3300, applying a 21st century PE of 20x gets you to an S&P500 of 4400; there’s your range."
Problem: The drivers of the 21st century range are reversing.
realinvestmentadvice.com/fomc-minutes-e…
Critically, when it comes to the #markets, both high inflation and rising Fed funds rates are already impacting #profit and #earnings growth. Such will only worsen as the “monetary lag effect” arrives in early 2023.
realinvestmentadvice.com/fomc-minutes-e…
"A 50% retracement of declines always mark the end of a #bearmarket."
There was only one period the market rallied while the Fed was hiking rates. Such was the beginning of a multiple bear market sequence that ended in 1974 with valuations at 7x earnings.
realinvestmentadvice.com/fomc-minutes-e…

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Lance Roberts

Lance Roberts Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @LanceRoberts

Aug 19
Today's #MacroView is out. Why today isn't 1982 and Jerome Powell isn't Paul Volker.
realinvestmentadvice.com/paul-volker-an…
The road to 1982 didn’t start in 1980. The buildup of #inflation started long before the #ArabOil Embargo. Economic growth, wages, and savings rates catalyzed “demand push” inflation.
realinvestmentadvice.com/paul-volker-an… Image
Furthermore, the Government ran no deficit, and household debt to net worth was about 60%. So, while #inflation increased and interest #rates rose, the average household could sustain their living standard.
realinvestmentadvice.com/paul-volker-an… Image
Read 5 tweets
Jun 11
The #RealInvestmentReport is out!
The #rally that started 3-weeks ago ended abruptly as concerns of #inflation, the #Fed and rising #recession risk spooked #investors. With the Fed set to hike #rates next week, we increased hedges and cash last week.
realinvestmentadvice.com/rally-fails-as…
After struggling at the 38.2% resistance level, #inflation, #recession risks, and the #Fed spooked #investors last week. #Market now retesting previous lows. Now back to short-term oversold, looking for a small bounce next week to add to #short #hedges.
realinvestmentadvice.com/rally-fails-as… Image
With the #Fed tightening their #balance sheet and hiking #rates, the 10-year yield is starting to top. Much like we saw in 2018, when the Fed breaks something, yields will fall quickly on the long-end (#yieldcurve inversion and #recession.)
realinvestmentadvice.com/rally-fails-as… Image
Read 7 tweets
Mar 25
A significant #bond #buying opportunity is approaching.
As bond yields surge, history and #techncial analysis suggest that we should look at bonds for both #capital appreciation and a #risk hedge.
realinvestmentadvice.com/surge-in-bond-…
In Dec 2018, we wrote why Jeff Gundlach was likely incorrect about 6% yields.
“Rates are at levels that historically led to some sort of event either economic, financial, or both, When that occurs, rates will go to 1.5% and closer to Zero.“
We got to 0.5%
realinvestmentadvice.com/surge-in-bond-…
The surge in 2-year #bond #yields is unprecedented. Historically, such a surge in short-term yields coincides with either #recessions or #market events. With yields now 4-std deviations above its 52-week moving average, such has denoted peaks previously.
realinvestmentadvice.com/surge-in-bond-…
Read 6 tweets
May 15, 2021
#RealInvestmentReport is out!
Despite the expected #surge in #inflation early in the week, #bulls picked themselves up to rally #stocks into Friday. We discuss the potential for a short-term #bounce, why the #Fed will make a #mistake, and #postioning now.
realinvestmentadvice.com/despite-surgin…
#LessonLearned - don't anticipate the turn in your #technicalsignals. As noted last week, it "seemed" the signal had turned, but it didn't. The #signal is very #oversold, so set up for a short-term #bounce is likely. Caution is still advised for now.
realinvestmentadvice.com/despite-surgin…
If we are #correct in our assessment about the roll-off #effect of #stimulus and #liquidity, we could well see #bonds outperform #stocks in 2022. We are watching very closely as we currently hold minimal duration in our fixed-income #portfolios.
realinvestmentadvice.com/despite-surgin…
Read 5 tweets
May 14, 2021
#MacroView
#NFIB data says we are only in a #recovery, not an #economic expansion.
While the NFIB data doesn't get much #media attention, it should as it tells you much about what is really happening in the #economy.
realinvestmentadvice.com/macroview-nfib…
Reason I pay attention to #NFIB
Sept 2019 - Data rings alarm bells on #recession.
April 2020 - Data says recession arrived.
May 2020 - Data says #economic recovery not as strong as media suggests.
realinvestmentadvice.com/macroview-nfib… Image
If businesses were expecting a massive surge in “#pentup#demand, they would prepare for it. Such includes #planning to increase #capex to meet expected demand. Unfortunately, those expectations peaked in 2018 and are dropping back to the March 2020 lows.
realinvestmentadvice.com/macroview-nfib… Image
Read 7 tweets
Jan 19, 2021
#TechnicallySpeaking - Signs of #exuberance warn of a #correction.
An update of #margin #debt is sending off warning signals that we haven't seen since the last corrective cycle. Also, why this is NOT a #new #bull #market.
realinvestmentadvice.com/technically-sp…
Repeat after me: March was not a #bearmarket.
‘Corrections’ generally occur over short time frames, do not break the prevailing trend in prices, and are quickly resolved by markets reversing to new highs."
realinvestmentadvice.com/technically-sp…
Reason 2 that March was not a #bearmarket
#Exuberance in terms of investors allocation to #equities takes years to recover following a real bear market.
realinvestmentadvice.com/technically-sp…
Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(