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🚨RED ALERT🚨
THREAD: GOP HEALTH CARE REPEAL IS BACK
Danger real • Activism needed
- timeline
- targets
- how to fight back
🚨RED ALERT🚨
THREAD: GOP HEALTH CARE REPEAL IS BACK
Danger real • Activism needed
- timeline
- targets
- how to fight back
McConnell "engaged and serious." White House "all hands on deck." Rs whipping votes this week, already at 49. politico.com/story/2017/09/…
Mon 9/18: GOP leadership confers. (YOU CALL SENATE 202-224-3121)
Tue 9/19: GOP caucus lunch. (CALL PROTEST)
Wed: Senate goes home, Rosh Hash
Tue 9/19: GOP caucus lunch. (CALL PROTEST)
Wed: Senate goes home, Rosh Hash
All Sens home Wed 9/20-Mon 9/25. FIND THEM & PROTEST. Luther Strange (R-AL) away for primary vote thru Tue 9/26. So repeal could go Wed 9/27
McConnell will only sched a vote if knows he has enough Rs to pass: 50. If he does, vote will be btw Wed 9/27 & Fri 9/29. Yom Kippur = 30th. 
Senate Parliamentarian won't allow a vote unless there's a CBO score. CBO has been instructed to put all else aside to focus on repeal bill.
DANGER: CBO normally gives score for COST ($) and for COVERAGE (# ppl who lose insurance). But *only $ req'd for Senate vote.*
CBO scores showing tens of millions of Americans will lose insurance coverage has helped derail past repeal votes. R solution: vote w/o #s
GOP hopes to ram through repeal vote before CBO figures out how many people will lose their insurance. Immoral—but also malevolently clever.
Ds pushing CBO to not release fiscal impact without also showing coverage impact. Unclear who'll prevail. Anyway: CBO score week of 25th.
Two more notes about timing. 1st: McCain has said no vote w/o hearings. So Johnson (R-WI) saying he'll hold a farcical "hearing" before 30th 
Johnson hearing would be joke: not in relevant committee, not regular process. We'll see if McCain says it's enough. politico.com/story/2017/09/…
If GOP believes they have the votes, hearing done, fiscal CBO score in hand, they move to vote sometime 9/27-29... with ZERO hours of debate
ZERO hours of debate? Yes. Budget reconciliation votes require 20h of debate—but technically those hours already happened, back in July.
Explanation. The Senate is officially considering the bill the House passed, the AHCA. Each Trumpcare bill is just an "amendment" to AHCA.
The big votes that failed in July were votes to substitute new repeal bills in place of AHCA. Graham-Cassidy is just another amendment.
Senate has never had a final vote on Trumpcare—it took up AHCA, burned through 20h of debate, put it back on legislative calendar, waited.
So our job is to create massive, unignorable pressure on Senate Republicans NOT to commit to voting Y on Trumpcare. If we succeed, no vote.
If we fail, the vote will come. There'll be one last hurdle: "vote-o-rama," where Ds & Rs can offer unlimited amendments & each gets a vote.
Key: If Rs don't pass Trumpcare by 11:59pm on Sat Sep 30, fiscal year ends, they hit deadline. Suddenly, they'd need 60 votes instead of 50.
Ds will have hundreds or even thousands of amendments ready to go. In theory, goal would be to run out the clock past deadline. BUT...
As you might remember from the confirmation of Neil Gorsuch, Rs can change Senate rules whenever they want, if they have 50 votes.
So if McConnell has 50 votes for repeal, expect him (w/tie-break assist from Pence) to shut down vote-o-rama before the buzzer & pass bill.
If Senate passes repeal bill, it goes to the House, which will have to pass it w/o changing a word. Deadline doesn't apply there. Then Trump
House-Senate conference committee impossible b/c of Senate deadline. So, if Senate passes, text is final. We'd fight in House; outlook grim.
That's the timeline. Next, targets & tactics. Note—not getting into policy details in this thread. Suffice to say, bill is brutal & deadly.
(To understand the policy, suggest you follow @ASlavitt @TopherSpiro @charles_gaba & read cbpp.org website)
Targets: First, McCain. Crucial. He's going back & forth in public statements. Hard to count as hard no. E.g. Sep 6: thehill.com/policy/healthc…
Today on TV, McCain said wants regular order & bipartisan bill. Also has said he'll support if Gov Ducey supports.
SO: if you're from AZ, call John McCain in DC & all state offices daily... & call Gov. Ducey, 602-542-4331. Urge NO & praise bipartisanship. 
Second: Lisa Murkowski. Courageous NO last time. *Hasn't publicly committed this time.* In AK? Look for upcoming protests & CALL DAILY. 
By the way: these directories of local office numbers, addresses, and fax numbers are from ContactingCongress.org—an invaluable resource.
Third: Collins. Almost certainly a no—though Politico reports she "hasn't made a final decision." Call & thank her for opposing repeal. 
Target 4 is Rand Paul, who keeps tweeting that he's a no... but who made a show of opposing last time and then voted yes twice in late July.
Next tier of targets: Capito WV, Cardner CO, Portman OH, Cotton AR—all likely Y votes, but from states that would be DEVASTATED by this bill
And after that, every Republican in the Senate should feel pressure—because there's certainly going to be pressure from the WH to vote yes.
has a page up to register local protests. Create here: act.indivisibleguide.com/event/killtheb… search here: act.indivisibleguide.com/event/killtheb…
Here at @MoveOn, we've got a TON cooking—will be posting more soon. Sign up at MoveOn.org to get email & text alerts re actions
Disability rights community is mobilizing. @LittleLobbyists have lobby days planned on the Hill. Whole movement is gearing up for the fight.
Planned Parenthood is activating full national grassroots network. AARP is on the case. We beat it last time. Folks: time to do it again.
If we win, it'll probably be anticlimactic. McConnell won't schedule a vote he might lose. But if clock hits midnight on Sep 30, celebrate.
Thing I keep worrying about: GOP Sens who think they have 49 votes. Who do they believe they've flipped? Don't know. politico.com/story/2017/09/… 
So, suppose you have two D senators. Or you've already called & want to do more. Can you still help? Yes. Bunch of ways.
DONATE to groups fighting Trumpcare. Every org I know spent way more than budgeted to beat repeal this Jan-July. $ now REALLY help w/fight.
RECRUIT friends and family with Republican senators to make calls, join protests, and visit local offices. Search FB for pals in key states.
Don't call other people's senators. Won't help. Here's a broader case for why not:
If you're near DC, stay tuned for protests here. Likely something coming this week—and more next week if they do proceed.
SPREAD THE WORD. Our biggest enemy right now is that most people have no clue this is happening. To win, we've gotta change that.
Also, are you a Republican donor? Know any? Call R Senate campaigns & the Nat'l Repub Senate Committee & say no $ if you repeal the ACA.
The Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee HQ is at (202) 675-6000. If you've ever given a dime to a Republican, call & threaten a strike.
Defeating Trumpcare doesn't take rocket science. What it takes is steady focus and relentless pressure. We can do this. Lives depend on it.
BAD SITUATION JUST GOT WORSE. UPDATE #1: McCain says he'll vote if his gov says he supports.
UPDATE #2: McCain's gov says he supports. So that's 49 R votes yes. *At least.*
DEFCON 1. Path to winning at this point is an uprising that makes a ton of GOP Senators privately okay w/failure—not just targeted pressure.
House Republicans (esp from blue states that would lose big!) coming out against could also blunt momentum. All Rs need to hear about this.
And lastly: protest plans are coming together. If you're near DC, come @ noon tomorrow. Many more to come, all over USA.
