Thread by @JenniferMerode

1. The government is weak, but the Brexit clock is still ticking - thread on what is/is not happening

2. Brexit R6 will be the shortest negotiating round yet- a mere 1 ½ days - with no DD/MB on day I

3. UK calls it stock-taking, but EU wants serious negotiations. No one expecting a breakthrough.

4. Citizens: EU fears UK has gone backwards on citizens’ rights (direct effect, family reunification, export benefits). Why….?

5. Two theories (1) Olly Robbins went further than David Davis realised. (2) Brits thought citizens’ rights concessions would unlock sufficient progress in Oct. Didn’t so now back pedalling.

6. Ireland: EU surprise SoS James Brokenshire still standing behind “magical thinking” border proposal that even Davis seemed to reject.

7. Ireland: Lots of technical work to do, but my sense political debate will be deferred to phase II.

8. Money: EU diplomats say the UK has two-three weeks to make a better offer on money -
our Tue story theguardian.com/politics/2017/…

9 Why? UK proposal has to be parsed by different ministries in EU27 capitals. Officials have to start drafting summit conclusions (1st draft due 29 November).

10.If Theresa May throws down an offer over dessert on 15 December no one has time to react. EU decision-making needs time to build consensus.

11.If no sufficient progress in December, UK risks delaying decision until March 2018 summit. EU appetite for emergency Brexit summits = zero.

12 No decision in December means EU could freeze internal planning on post-Brexit transition and future. Some countries were reluctant to start it.

13. EU ambassadors approved internal planning document on Wed: Germany sounded reluctant, worried about sending wrong message to UK.

14. For anyone who has read EU guidelines internal planning doc contains no surprises. Nor proposals.

15. Lots of open essay questions. For EU it contains obvious implicit fact: post-Brexit trade deal is long and complicated.

16. No doubt many plans in desk drawers, but worth remembering EU has yet to take any official positions on Brexit phase 2 (key principles stated tho)

17 On future deal also open: one, two or more deals? EU-only ratification or approval by national parliaments?

18. Nor does EU not have final position on length or nature of transition.

19. Will the UK pass the sufficient progress test in December? No guarantees and nobody knows. The EU will not move.

20. Theresa May’s future in doubt, but some in Bxl think she cannot afford a total breakdown of talks. Total uncertainty about UK posn///