Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Euref

Most recents (24)

#C4News tonight confirms that Trump, John Bolton & US view the EU as a "foe" to be weakened or destroyed and #Brexit is a big part of this. In other words: EU rights, freedoms, jobs, benefits, trade, standards etc. are just collateral damage in the US war a against United Europe.
Moscow also wants a weakened Europe. Seems that the US & Russia are playing divide & rule, in the expectation of expanding their respective spheres of interest.
Interesting that the Tory Manifesto of 1974 recognised and emphasised the need for a united Europe...
Read 8 tweets
Today is possibly .@theresa_may's last day as PM, if .@BorisJohnson can command a majority (which is in some doubt...)

So it's a great opportunity to look back at some of the *highlights* of Mrs May's premiership in memes👇
13 JUL 2016: May was appointed as PM and named her Cabinet shortly thereafter, surprising many by giving 3 of the top #Brexit-related jobs to arch-brexiters Boris Johnson, David Davis & Liam Fox. Sheer folly, or genius in making them own what they'd sold? Sadly, the former😢
/1.
5 OCT 2016: With such a narrow result, the country could be forgiven for expecting May to propose a consensual solution, as Norway PM Erna Solberg had done in a similar situation. Most Remainers would've accepted #Norway.

May's #CitizensOfNowhere speech crushed all hope.
/2.
Read 71 tweets
Worth a read from @peoplesvote_uk on options: d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/in/pages/19743…

fine to point out problems of alternatives, but another referendum would also have many issues

1/
@peoplesvote_uk Firstly, there's no clear incentive to pass the legislation through for a vote.

Other options are problematic, but unevenly so, thus different sections of Commons might feel they don't want to go down this path

2/
@peoplesvote_uk Secondly, there's no guarantee a second referendum would be run w/o the problems that compromising integrity of #EUref for many.

Process matters as much as outcome

3/
Read 6 tweets
I make no excuses for the young man who smoked opium at a wedding in Afghanistan, which is, after all, the world’s primary source of opium. However, I have some sympathy for the predicament in which he found himself. /2

dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7…
2/ His lack of courage, or confidence, to say no to his hosts, is probably like the teenage daughter of teetotal parents who is offered the wine of the French vineyard she’s been sent to as an exchange student and opts to taste it in order not to offend her hosts. /3
3/ It’s the nature of the human condition that as we grow up we establish our own values, acceptable levels of compromise – our own integrity and moral courage. We make mistakes along the way, do things we later regret, and decide whether or not to make them public. /4
Read 21 tweets
Some quick thoughts on #PeterboroughByElection

1/
Many sighs of relief will be heard today, following LAB retention of a seat when much seemed stacked against them: disgraced incumbent; bullish and v.active challenger; less than scintillating candidate; etc

3/
Turnout was also pretty high (48%), so can defend result as more as being more than just core votes

4/
Read 10 tweets
1) This is serious! Stop whingeing and whining that you don't like @jeremycorbyn you don't have to, what you should be looking at are Labour's brilliant COSTED policies and the party headed by a man who will bust a git to remain truthful and true to his word and implement them.
2) Some people es[ecially the crabby older generation (of which I am one) have moaned and droned on for years about not having people like Blair and Cameron as PMs that they wanted normal people who spoke without spin and told the truth. Well now we have such a man in
3) Jeremy Corbyn and what do you all do? You start whining and moaning about him being a NORMAL PERSON, FFS what do you want? In Corbyn, we have someone who is caring kind, truthful and decent and the Tory press and broadcast media recognise this and start smearing him and you
Read 12 tweets
BXP has no manifesto, no detailed policies & no plan for #Brexit (no, "just walk away" isn't a serious plan outside of a pub!)

Why are people willing to vote for a shady outfit that isn't a party, has dodgy finances & will likely adopt #UKIP's *no work* habit?
#EUelections2019
What's more, BXP now say they want to run in the next GE, even though the leader admits #Brexit isn't the answer to any of our domestic problems — you know, all those problems Leave voters thought Brexit was going to fix.

#EUelections2019
Somehow it feels like this is all about the salary and perks for some of the BXP's candidates, and that they're not taking the business of representing our country in an international forum seriously - as indeed those who were previously part of UKIP never have.

#EUelections2019
Read 24 tweets
I've noticed that it's been several days since I even tried to pass comment on Brexit. Indeed, I struggle to think of a period of this length since #EUref when there has been so little to say

1/
That's despite being just over a week out from #EUelections2019 , being into the 5th week of CON-LAB talks and the UK finally asking about changes to the Political Declaration

2/
But none of this is addressing the fundamental blockages in the process

3/
Read 8 tweets
Right then. Since many of you are (rightly) aggrieved by the very particular reading of the data cited in this article, let's have a dig into what's what

1/
The report was done by @EurobarometerEU for the EP, but it's currently only on the EP website: europarl.europa.eu/at-your-servic…

2/
the most useful piece of context is that the EU's public image was badly hit during the eurocrisis, but is gradually recovering some of its lost ground, albeit to a still rather ambivalent level

3/
Read 23 tweets
During 2016, I campaigned with all my heart to Remain.

Very early on, I realised the 'official' Remain group ("Stronger In") was incompetent and even obstructive.

In my wilder moments, I even began to wonder if there was foul play going on.

#EURef
#Remain
#StrongerIn
(Cont...)
Later, I found out that the Chair of Stronger In was Stuart Rose, a man who had previously advocated for #Leave, who is on record as stating that #Brexit would lead to higher wages and who is now vigorously opposing a 2nd referendum... Not, in my submission, a committed Remainer.
Other figureheads of Stronger In jumped onto the 'we must respect the Will of the People' bandwagon almost before the results were in, and some of them then *actively* subverted Pro EU manifestations. Any Remainer on the 'March for Europe' in September 2016 will know what I mean.
Read 10 tweets
Now, where was I? Oh yes, threads earlier talking about v likely #Corbyn #Labour government that failure of MV3 has created. I warn you that I've been to a Bottomless Brunch of Prosecco with some of my cousins, but short thread follows.
Let's start here: even in their best case scenario, #Labour is likely to be in a minority. Evidence is legion that they are going to catch an absolute *tonking* in Scotland, and I'd be surprised if they had held more than one seat there as things stand.
In that situation, LDs, SNP, Green, Plaid will try to hold them to another #EUref. Given c.25-35 Labour rebels, they will need a combined majority of 50-70 to avoid tearing themselves apart over this. That's the first step.
Read 17 tweets
So, where are we today? Overall I would say that the #Labour #Corbyn strategy is working well, and is likely to see Jez in No. 10 at some point in the next year or just over a year.
The #Conservatives are experiencing what looks to me rather like damage ERM crisis did to them in autumn 1992. Have lost 13 points (!) with @YouGov in just six weeks. Bear in mind that experience shows that such falls get worse for some time - could be headed v low.
The moment MV3 failed to pass was a clarifying one, and therefore welcome here - had been wondering for years what was keeping the CON score so high. It was #Brexit. We're now at 50/50 whether it even happens. They will struggle to recover.
Read 14 tweets
Theres a lot to unpack here, so let's get started

1/
UKIP as a party started out with an extremely narrow focus back in the early 1990s: win enough seats in #EP94 (as it wasn't called then) that when it didn't take them, it'd cause a crisis & thus UK withdrawal

2/
When this cunning plan didn't work, there was a shift to taking up seats to use them as a platform to expose the bad things about EU and UK's membership thereof

3/
Read 16 tweets
Let's talk about 'sincere cooperation' for a bit, shall we?

1/
The Treaty on European Union Art 4(3) states:

"Pursuant to the principle of sincere cooperation, the Union and the Member States shall, in full mutual respect, assist each other in carrying out tasks which flow from the Treaties....

2/
"...The Member States shall take any appropriate measure, general or particular, to ensure fulfilment of the obligations arising out of the Treaties or resulting from the acts of the institutions of the Union...

3/
Read 17 tweets
#Brexit & political disillusionment thread...
Thought #EURef campaign would be based on facts, not lies. I was wrong.
Thought media would call out #Brexit -er lies & challenge obvious bollocks. I was wrong.
Read 23 tweets
More Old Bailey Sophistry from Codpiece Cox admitting that in order that today's vote is NOT an attempt to repeat #MV2 (to comply with Speaker Bercow's re-iteration of 1604 convention) it is also NOT a #MV in sense of #EUWA18 Section 13.1.b

#BBCpc #EUWAdebate #VictoriaLIVE #LBC
Attempt by Codpiece Cox to scare House into voting in a #MeaninglessVote for #WA (only) solely to secure the offered (actually only technical) extension of #BrexitDay from Apr 12 to May 22 sans guarantee of any other extension. Sophistry.

#BBCpc #EUWAdebate #VictoriaLIVE #LBC
Of course, if the House falls for Codpiece Cox's scare tactics, none of this will figure in future utterances by #TheresaMay's #Brexihadis - the headlines will scream 'Parliament approves #Brexit arrangements' (sans qualification or caveat).

#BBCpc #EUWAdebate
#VictoriaLIVE #LBC
Read 29 tweets
Off to give evidence to @CommonsEUexit this morning on #EUCO, but since #IndicativeVotes is likely to come up, let's run through the options to consider the EU's probable view on them

1/
A) "Constitutional and accountable government" is about not changing Standing Order 14, so not an EU concern per se

2/
B) "No deal" is what it says and raises no technical issue for the EU, especially in light of recent statements that prep from this is all set

3/
Read 19 tweets
The #RevokeArticle50 #RevokeArticle50Petition is the petition that has seen broadest support of any parliamentary petition in UK's political history if I am not wrong. It is inconceivable that among the signatories there are only individuals who voted #Remain in 2016...
Yet, most opinion polls still suggest only a small swing to #Remain. How can we make sense of this?
A remarkable observation from online polls such as the British Election study @besresearch (using @YouGov) is that among participants in these polls, self-reported turnout in the EU referendum is huge -- 92.5% of BES panel wave participants stated that they voted in the #EURef
Read 13 tweets
It has been a while since I last crunched some numbers on #Brexit, and while colleagues are on TV talking about Apple's latest online video schemes, I thought I'd crunch some more.

This time - the #RevokeArticle50Petition #RevokeArt50Petition - now signed by 5.6+ million people
First and foremost, let's revisit the claim that a load of bots are signing it. Or that a load of Leave supporters are doing so. Sorry bots - doesn't look likely...

Here's why:
Below is a chart illustrating the correlation between the original #Brexit #EURef and the #RevokeArt50Now petition. Each dot represents a constituency, the x-axis the Remain vote share, and the y-axis the % of each constituency which has signed the petition.
Read 14 tweets
@10DowningStreet @lucyfrazermp @LaylaMoran @mrjamesob @JMPSimor @joannaccherry @WomaninHavana @IanDunt @Bakehouse2016 @spaceangel1964 @ProfBrianCox @ThatTimWalker @thatginamiller @acgrayling @JolyonMaugham Dear PM, as an ex-conservative (who voted for 4 former Tory Prime Ministers) I wish to register my 'huge horror' at the alarming pace of damaging developments since Feb'16. The history is known, and David Cameron's mistake was seismic. Your own position is compromised, with our -
@10DowningStreet @lucyfrazermp @LaylaMoran @mrjamesob @JMPSimor @joannaccherry @WomaninHavana @IanDunt @Bakehouse2016 @spaceangel1964 @ProfBrianCox @ThatTimWalker @thatginamiller @acgrayling @JolyonMaugham - Nation(s) now split to an unprecedented extent! In terms of TODAY, it seems clear that the Article 50 Notice (unsupported by any detailed planning!) must be revoked or extended, to allow due time for a proper consensus to be built - whether or not informed by a further People's
Read 60 tweets
I'm not convinced that the political parties understand where "Middle England/Wales" exists. Analysis indicates Ipswich, Sevenoaks, Broxtowe, Wrexham, Newark, Preston, C.Croydon, Basingstoke, Blackley & Broughton + Warrington South are the best seats to understand #EURef (1/7)
This collection of seats represent (by that order) the closest reflection to the average distribution of the Leave vote in England/Wales. It's not the same as picking a seat made up entirely of smaller areas all of which voted 53 Leave 47 Remain (2/7)
Media/politicos often don't get this, they should be visiting parliamentary seats which have a wide degree of diversity within them to test the political temperature. Watford - which nearly made the list - was wisely used for @voteLeave Focus Groups (3/7)
Read 7 tweets
Victoria Atkins MP Email: victoria@victoriaatkins.org voted #REMAIN in #EURef.

Unlike Victoria her constituents in Louth & Horncastle voted overwhelmingly to #LEAVE EU by 69.4%.

Victoria stood at the 2017GE on a @Conservatives manifesto promise the UK would #LEAVE EU, SM & CU.
Victoria Atkins MP for Louth & Horncastle polled 33,733 votes in 2017GE

Her majority is 19,641

Over 41,000 people in Louth & Horncastle voted #LEAVE in #EURef

Over 7.000 more than voted for Victoria in 2017

Over twice as many as her majority

#NoBrexitBetrayalVictoriaAtkins
Word is that a great many people were calling for Victoria Atkin's deselection at a packed meeting of Leavers for Lincolnshire at the Bull Hotel in Horncastle last night.
Read 3 tweets
@Politics_Oxford @BBCRadio4 Did Prof Tilley have full editorial control of this programme? The reason I ask is that there is an extraordinary lack of balance in the way he presents Leave & Remain voters, and so one could be forgiven for perceiving a bias against Remain voters.

/1.
@Politics_Oxford @BBCRadio4 For example, prior to the #EURef, and persisting today, was the belief amongst #Leave voters (encouraged by Leave politicians) that the UK would be forced to join an #EUarmy.

In fact, it's constitutionally impossible for this to occur. UK has a double protection.

/2.
@Politics_Oxford @BBCRadio4 This double protection against the formation of an EU Army (let alone being forced to join one) is that
(a) the decision must be unanimous per Art. 42(2) of the European Union Treaty and
(b) any move to downgrade "unanimous" to QMV must be approved unanimously!

/3.
Read 26 tweets
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 @JennyLConstable, who voted No in 2014, eloquently explains why she would vote for independence in a future referendum on Scotland’s future.

- Scotland being told that voting No in #IndyRef would mean remaining in EU.

- Scotland’s remain vote being ignored after #EUref.
In my view, one of the best things about 2014 was the many new articulate voices that came to the fore during #IndyRef. Each person that makes there voice heard gives others the confidence to do the same.
Those who already have a significant platform can help by sharing it with others. There’s a new generation waiting to be heard.
Read 4 tweets

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