Thread by @Usherwood

Some thoughts on how to avoid an end-less post-EU transition:

1/

There was a lot of fuss earlier in the week about HMG asking that transition be as long as needed to get the New Relationship up and running

2/

In part, that's because UK think it needs 24 mths to do this, while EU thinks 20 will suffice

3/

But mainly, it was a prudent step to avoid creating another cliff-edge in Dec 2020

4/

Not unreasonably, hard Brexiters worry that this is thin-end-of-wedge time and that HMG is angling to have perpetual BRINO

5/

So, what to do?

3 options

6/

First, you can tie hands in advance and set a fixed date for transition to end.

7/

This is simple (an article in legal agt on Art.50), clear and structures behaviour from a long way out.

8/

However, it got same problem as now: what if more time is needed, for legit reasons (eg negotiations take longer than planned)?

9/

Either it's fixed (in which case, you've a cliff-edge problem), or it's not (in which case, what was the point?)

10/

Second, you can create incentives to get on with it

11/

An option here might to pre-announce the expiry of bits of initial transition phase, turning a cliff-edge into a cascade of edgelets (?)

12/

Think of it an analogous to US gvt shutdowns caused by sunset clauses: reality of some chaos will help keep minds focused

13/

Problem here is deciding what to expire when (front-load, back-load?); need to find global agt on New Rel (which is harder with this splitting-up); and general impression that you expect this all to take ages

14/

Third way is simply for both sides to firm up now their intentions on New Rel

15/

There's currently ambivalence on both sides right now, but if they cld agree on broad goal, then progress wld speed up

16/

By creating a strategic intent, negotiations wld become structurally much more likely to get to an agt closer to hoped-for timescale

17/

Such headline agt wld also help manage domestic audiences and build broader confidence in situation reaching a new equilibrium

18/

Of course, problem is in getting to such clarification: still quite divergent views in UK and EU27, and between them

19/

So, to sum up, best way to avoid drift is to find headline agt now. Unfortunately, that's also still looking unlikely

/end