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tony nog #FBPE @tony_nog
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
1) So...
Corbyn was facing a #Brexit crisis -whipping MPs on EEA amendment would expose him once & for all as a Leaver

So his current plan is to create a smokescreen - abstain on EEA amendment to guarantee its failure
then submit a similar one which is guaranteed to fail as well
2) Corbyn kills the chance to stay in EEA via abstention, then promotes a similar (but deliberately vague) amendment - who's purpose is *not* to succeed, but to publicly fail in order to provide fake "soft #Brexit" optics to Labour Remainers

"We tried to stay in SM but...."
3) Problem solved. Very public abstention on EEA kills SM, for benefit of Corbyn's beliefs and Labour leavers

Very public failure on "internal market" amendment for benefit of Labour Remainer wishful thinkers

Not sure I've ever seen anything more cynical
4) Would you really want this man in charge of the country? Straightforward politics?
End/
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More from @tony_nog see all

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1) Simple, fair strategy for #PeoplesVote
The #Brexit side of the debate get to choose their option for the referendum question with one condition:
Their Brexit plan must be achieveable & must not depend on the EU "caving"

If they can't decide on an option, that's their problem
2) to explain, the Remain side choose "Remain" as their option for the ballot paper, and the Leave side get to pick any #Brexit variant they believe will get the most public support.

It could be a no deal #Brexit, a Canada deal with the backstop, May's deal or Norway+
3) but...
If for example they choose "no deal" its not "no deal because the EU will panic and give us a great deal", it's just "no deal", as it stands, with its consequences spelt out

If its May's deal, its May's deal *including* the backstop
Read 8 tweets
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1) Corbyn - unable & unwilling to lead
With 88 days to go & with 2 public defeats on the Government Corbyn had a chance today to show leadership & set the tone for Labour on #Brexit

Essentially 30 minutes filming an empty chair would have been just as useful
2) there were some minor crumbs that some will cling to but nothing knew was said, nothing meaningful was promised, and the entire speech was an exercise in dishonesty & misdirection

It's yet another shameful day for Labour Leadership & another let down for its voters
3) Corbyn again reiterated the nonsense that he would push for a CU where the UK would have a "say" on trade deals. He must know by now this is unachievable.

He calls for a "close relationship with the SM" which we've known for years is a meaningless phrase
Read 7 tweets
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1) In all the anger of "will of the people being thwarted" its probably worth remembering that our various #Brexit MP Vote Leave leaders have achieved precisely zero since the referendum, and have failed in every single task they set themselves

No wonder we're in this mess
2) Johnson was an international joke as Foreign Secretary, David Davis conceded at every stage with the EU before finally finding an excuse to resign, Gove hid from any important Brexit role, Leadsom & Grayling support May's deal whilst obviously hating it
3) Fox travelled the globe but came back without even a whiff of a promise of a substantial trade deal

Hannan has simply shuffled off, Stuart resigned her seat as soon as she could, Raab was essentially Brexit secretary in absence

Even Mogg blew it when he tried to stage a coup
Read 8 tweets

Related threads

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Jeremy Corbyn's idea of breaking the #Brexit impasse with a GE on a platform of renegotiating WA is A/unlikey to happen B/ a REALLY bad strategy to win power C/ catastrofuckingly dangerous for the country for the following reasons
#Brexit GE needs Some tories to support it which is unlikely given thst keeping corbyn out is the one thing that unites they would have a leader who intends to step down which is unlikely
The DUP definitely don't want a GE as they lose their leverage and ability to extract bribes
Read 23 tweets
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Small thread to confidently predict the #Brexit end game. Quite simply there is no other plausible scenario then this..

1/ increasingly clear what will happen with #Brexit. The EU will take the #Chequers deal, tweak it, likely beyond recognition, so it fits them.
2/ ..as there is now no time left for negotiations, May will have little resistance to EU. It will be a Canada+ deal with as many optional extras that prompt payment of £39bn can buy - probably not that much. NIreland will be fudged.

Then the great House of Commons showdown...
3/ the great parliamentary showdown simply won’t happen. 650 MPs will be faced with horrible but ultimately easy choice: a lousy deal or a catastrophic no deal. 200 Tory MPs will back govt. it will only take a few dozen Labour MPs to abstain or vote for #brexit and it will pass.
Read 11 tweets
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1. I am told I should welcome the efforts of @betterbrexit. I'm not impressed. It's too little, far too late and ill thought out. EEA might well be a large part of the solution but it is not a miracle solution and moving into it from the position of being an EU member is not easy
2. To maintain frictionless trade we would need a customs protocol to go with it along with a series of negotiated annexes which may take a number of years to complete. It's not as simple as just filling in an Efta application form.
3. EEA has often been described as an off the shelf solution (even by me) but it is only off the shelf insofar as it is an existing framework. It still needs to be beaten into shape and will have to take into account the concerns and red lines of Efta members.
Read 22 tweets
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#brexit 33
Germany earned €2.9 billion from Greece’s debt crisis, their supposed equal members

@EURACTIV euractiv.com/section/econom…
#Brexit 34
Multinationals avoid the total cost2UK of Freedom of Movement & Freedom of Establishment is about £40 Bn/YEAR. The effect on UK public finances is 2drain the resources available 4 OUR pensions & benefits in the future. Get ready 2work until you drop!
globalbritain.co.uk/wp-content/upl…£30bn-cost-of-EU-migration-FINAL.pdf
Read 13 tweets
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1/ A small thread on why BOTH many Remainers & Leavers still havent "got" that #Brexit has already failed...
....even if it goes ahead.
& why its often "media noise" rather than "actual lies" is obscuring this & the fact that Brexit wont happen as we thought it would 2 years ago.
2/ Basic Leave idea pre #Brexit vote was that a prosperous UK with large trade deficit eager to retain many European standards wld not really offer a threat to EU was not completely implausible as many remainers assumed.
But it depended on....
3/ Basic #Brexit idea was to convince EU that with a bit of compromise & British payments UK cld leave single mkt but retain full access to it while it worked out its future. Indeed many sensible Leavers didnt want radical change overnight..however there was one small problem....
Read 16 tweets
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1. Worst national leadership in my lifetime forcing through the most damaging, misguided & missold policy I can remember. Ideology & vested self interest replace statesmanship, soundbites replace sound judgement & autocracy subverts democracy.
#Brexit harms us irreparably #FBPE
2. A flawed Leave campaign based on lies, deceit, disingenuity & over simplification & a #Remain one fought w/o any positivity from the Govt & no real commitment from Labour, whose leader was virtually AWOL, did no justice to #Brexit complexity & betrayed our democratic process.
3. A mere 37% of voters/26.5% of the Ppl voted leave in a legally Non-Binding test of public opinion which has been corrupted, on the basis of an illegitimate political promise & interpreted as being the irrefutable Will of the Ppl.
The 1st is insufficient to claim the latter!
Read 39 tweets

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