Trump is clearly betting that he can single out Canada as a scapegoat in the midst of his tariff circus. As any bully, he's trying to encourage the other G5 to go along w this "punishment" so that he'll ease the pressure on them in turn & drive them twd the 1-on-1 deals he wants.
Trying to blame Trudeau, personally, for his decision to "pull out" from the communique, in his mind, clinches this narrative. Trump's problem is that no one else believes that and they know that he was never going to sign off on the joint statement to begin with.
Moreover, Ottawa's recent free trade agreement w the EU, CETA, now emerges not only as a economic pact but a prescient strategic decision too. If this rogue US admin is truly committed to isolating Canada, but also the EU, then the EU & Canada must necessarily deepen their ties.
And let's no forget it was JT's father who famously remarked: "Living next to you is in some ways like sleeping with an elephant. No matter how friendly and even-tempered is the beast, if I can call it that, one is affected by every twitch and grunt." CDNs knew this, EU now too.
Canada and the EU will both be hit hard by these tariffs but, in the long run, it will be the US that will be most damaged. US could attempt to shift twds some sort of neo-Keynesian model but it won't: Trump, his WH are incompetent & he's a kleptocrat.
So, he's going to risk melting down the US economy, try to self-deal & profit in the process, while simultaneously unraveling the rules-based global order, so that world economy will begin more closely approximate his own biz: patrimonialism &, essentially, organized crime.
As I told @OnTheMoneyCBC last week, this is a tectonic shift in world history. This is the architect of the post-1945 order, the US, abandoning its creation for the self-interest of one, deeply corrupt, man. It's that simple and tragic.
However unlikely, however difficult, it is imperative the EU, Canada & all others committed to liberal democracy & rules-based global politics band together now. The US may return to its collective senses, in time. But even so, permanent alternatives are now clearly needed. /xxx
