Backstop thread.
1. Which Tory MPs rebelled the first time, but not this time? Scottish Tories.
2. It’s the fear of Scotland demanding Northern Ireland’s special status that’s extending the U.K. govt’s opposition to an NI only backstop beyond the minority of deliberate saboteurs and minority of romantic Unionists
3. Tory performance in Scotland depends on sweeping up most Unionist votes there
4. But the London govt still has yet to understand that the EU is not going to budge on this. It believes it’s strong enough to force a concession on London
6. It sees that the long term consequences of no deal include the unravelling of the UK
8. And they’re right, but not necessarily for the right reasons. No deal will polarise opinion (further, if that’s possible). Remainers will blame Brexit, leavers will blame the EU.
9. Though NI politics have been based on sectarian identity for years and Scottish politics starting to be divided on Unionist Nationalist lines too, in both places there’s a pragmatic swing vote
9. In the end they’ll be happy to stay in the Union if it looks like it’s working, but go against their traditional position if it looks like a mess.
11. So a no deal for rejecting the NI special status can only be expected preserve the Union for the very short term.
12. To unblock the situation, the U.K. and EU need to do something to allow Scottish Tory MPs to vote against the ERG. Ends.
