Thread by @themarketswork

1) Was Papadopoulos supposed to fill the gap in surveillance left by the expired FISA on Manafort?

Recall those missing June/July 2016 FISA Application denials.
themarketswork.com/2018/05/25/why…

2) CNN reported that Manafort had been under surveillance using a FISA Warrant since 2014.
cnn.com/2017/09/18/pol…

3) CNN:

A secret order authorized by the court that handles the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) began after Manafort became the subject of an FBI investigation that began in 2014.

4) CNN:

It centered on work done by a group of Washington consulting firms for Ukraine's former ruling party, the sources told CNN.

5) But the FISA Warrant was not renewed sometime in early 2016.

CNN: The surveillance was discontinued at some point last year for lack of evidence, according to one of the sources.

6) The surveillance likely stopped sometime in March 2016.

7) The FISA Warrant wasn't active by May 19, 2016.

CNN: As Manafort took the reins as Trump campaign chairman in May, the FBI surveillance technicians were no longer listening.

8) Nor was it active in June 2016.

CNN: The FBI wasn't listening in June 2016, when Trump Jr. led a meeting that included Manafort, then campaign chairman, and Jared Kushner, with a Russian lawyer who had promised negative information on Hillary Clinton.

9) Manafort first reached out to the Trump Campaign on Feb 29, 2016.

"On Feb. 29, 2016, Mr. Manafort reached out to Mr. Trump with a slick, carefully calibrated offer."
nytimes.com/2017/04/08/us/…

10) As far as I know this was the first contact in some time.

Per Manafort:

“Donald Trump and I had some business in the 1980s but we had no relationship until the Trump campaign called me,”

11) The FISA Warrant on Manafort WAS still active during Feb 2016..

CNN: The government snooping continued into early this year, including a period when Manafort was known to talk to President Donald Trump.

12) Notably, there has been NO mention of Manafort being surveilled under a FISA Warrant while a member of the Trump Campaign.

13) Manafort joined the Trump Campaign on March 28, 2016.

Manafort was hired to lead the Trump Campaign's delegate effort.
nytimes.com/politics/first…

14) On May 19, 2016, Manafort became Trump's campaign chairman and chief strategist.
washingtonpost.com/news/post-poli…

15) On August 19, 2016, Manafort resigned from the Trump Campaign.
washingtonpost.com/news/post-poli…

16) Surveillance on Manafort was then re-started:

CNN: The FBI then restarted the surveillance after obtaining a new FISA warrant that extended at least into early this year.

17) CNN:

Sources say the second warrant was part of the FBI's efforts to investigate ties between Trump campaign associates and suspected Russian operatives.

18) The FISA Warrant was probably restarted sometime in August 2016.

CNN: Manafort was ousted from the campaign in August. By then the FBI had noticed what counterintelligence agents thought was a series of odd connections between Trump associates and Russia.

19) CNN: The CIA also had developed information, including from human intelligence sources, that they believed showed Russian President Vladimir Putin had ordered his intelligence services to conduct a broad operation to meddle with the US election.

Human Intelligence Sources...

20) Sometime in late August or early September 2016, a new FISA was obtained on Manafort.

CNN: The FBI surveillance teams, under a new FISA warrant, began monitoring Manafort again, sources tell CNN.

21) The original surveillance on Manafort probably had stopped by March 28, 2016 when Manafort joined the Trump Campaign.

It was definitely stopped by May 19, 2016.

22) Which brings us back to George Papadopoulos.
themarketswork.com/2018/05/25/why…

23) On March 14, 2016 – Papadopoulos first meets Mifsud in Italy – approximately one week after finding out he will be joining the Trump team.
dailycaller.com/2018/04/22/geo…

24) On March 16, 2016 Strzok sends a text:

"Our guy is talking"

25) On March 21, 2016 Carter Page & George Papadopoulos officially join the Trump Campaign as advisors on foreign policy.

26) For a complete timeline on Papadopoulos see the Enhanced Papadopoulos Timeline located towards the bottom of this article:
themarketswork.com/2018/06/07/mis…

27) On January 11, 2017 the Guardian reported the following:

The Guardian has learned that the FBI applied for a warrant from the foreign intelligence surveillance (FISA) court over the summer [2016] in order to monitor four members of the Trump team.
theguardian.com/us-news/2017/j…

28) A BBC News article, reported:

Lawyers from the NSD in the DOJ drew up an application.

Their first application, in June, was rejected outright by the judge.

They returned with a more narrowly drawn order in July and were rejected again.
bbc.com/news/world-us-…

29) I can’t verify with total certainty the existence or non-existence of June/July 2016 FISA Applications.

But it’s worth noting that Senator Chuck Grassley requested information regarding June/July 2016 FISA Applications in a June 28, 2017 letter.
grassley.senate.gov/news/news-rele…

30) The FBI’s inability to obtain a FISA Warrant in June and July 2016 would explain why the FBI opened its July 2016 Counterintelligence Investigation with no official evidence.
themarketswork.com/2018/04/22/nun…

31) A June/July 2016 FISA Warrant denial explains a fair amount – and has some ramifications.

We know that both Papadopoulos and Page were targeted for meetings to create perceived associations with Russia.

32) We know UK Intel was passed to Brennan in early summer 2016:

In the summer of 2016, Robert Hannigan, head of Britain’s GCHQ traveled to meet with then-CIA Head John Brennan regarding alleged communications between the Trump Campaign and Moscow.
theguardian.com/news/2017/nov/…

33) We know that FBI Agent Michael Gaeta met with Steele in London on July 5, 2016.

Per Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland, the State Department received a summary of Steele’s Dossier sometime in July 2016
themarketswork.com/2018/03/14/new…

34) We also know there was no active surveillance on Manafort during this period.

35) Carter Page was probably not being surveilled at this time (emphasis on probably).

He had just finished up helping on the Evgeny Buryakov case.
themarketswork.com/2018/07/22/que…

36) Here’s the thing.

Up until July 11, 2016, all direct contact was with George Papadopoulos through Mifsud and Downer.

Carter Page did not personally meet w/Halper until July 11, 2016 at the July 2016 Cambridge symposium.
crassh.cam.ac.uk/events/26818

37) If there was a June and/or July 2016 FISA Application, it’s pretty good bet that Papadopoulos was in it.

38) For the sake of argument, assume the FBI tried to obtain two FISA warrants in the summer of 2016.

The first was a hodgepodge of unofficial foreign intelligence with Papadopoulos information mixed in.

It was denied by the FISA Judge.

39) The FISA Judge asked the FBI to narrow their focus and present a second FISA Application.

The FBI presented another FISA Application centered around Papadopoulos but their “evidence” was so weak the FISA Judge denied them a second time.

40) Two strikes in a legal game that’s usually statistically reminiscent of T-ball.

FISA Applications are overwhelmingly granted.

What would you do if you’re the FBI.

41) We know what happened next.

The FBI turned to Christopher Steel and his Dossier.

A Dossier whose first Memo is dated June 20, 2016.

Note: It wasn't really a "Dossier". Just a collection of haphazard documents.

42) Given prior failures to obtain a FISA Warrant using Papadopoulos, the FBI wouldn’t want Papadopoulos’ name anywhere near their next attempt.

Which would explain why Papadopoulos appears nowhere in the Steele Dossier.

43) We know Brennan was leaning on Comey pretty hard:

I made sure that anything that was involving U.S. persons, including anything involving the individuals involved in the Trump campaign was shared with the bureau [FBI].
themarketswork.com/2018/04/12/the…

44) A FISA Warrant on Papadopoulos was now off the table.

FBI couldn’t bring Papadopoulos before the FISA Court a 3rd time.

But the FBI could use Papadopoulos as a temporary excuse to start their Counterintelligence Investigation while Steele continued his work on the Dossier.

45) They FBI conveniently received “verified” Papadopoulos comments through Australian Embassy counterparts on July 22, 2016.

The FBI opened their Counterintelligence Investigation on July 31, 2016.

46) Papadopoulos didn’t fix the problem. He merely bought the FBI some time.

Carter Page was the pathway to fixing that problem.

Halper met with Carter Page for the first time on July 11, 2016, just four days after Page’s July 2016 Moscow trip.

47) On October 21, 2016, the FBI obtained a FISA Title I Warrant listing Page as an “agent of a foreign power”.

Page has never been charged with anything. It’s unlikely he ever will be charged.

48) I'm not entirely sure why surveillance was stopped on Manafort. It may he was deemed too high profile a target - too obvious.

I'll give that some more thought.

I'm guessing others may know the reason.

49) But it seems likely that Papadopoulos was used in a failed attempt to fill the gap left by the discontinuation of surveillance on Manafort.

One other thing. Don't forget about this guy - and his ties to UK Intel firm Hakluyt. themarketswork.com/2018/05/20/sir…

Who was probably partnered up with this guy. /End
themarketswork.com/2018/07/16/joh…

Final Note: This really started back in 2015 - and probably earlier than that.
themarketswork.com/2018/04/05/the…