There's a Brexit madness afflicting UK politics and it appears to be getting worse. A boringly moderate and old fashioned UK pragmatic thread on betrayal, no deal, and what next... 1/
Start with history. The UK public voted 52:48 to leave the EU. That is a fact. Whether the 52 voted to control immigration, promote trade, join EEA or whatever is speculation. As is discerning the motives of the 48. 2/
Democracy is thus served by leaving the EU. It does not follow that this has to be no-deal, EEA, FTA, whatever. Therefore read "This is not what the public voted for" as "I prefer something else". Nothing more. 3/
It follows that any path to leaving the EU is not a betrayal, whatever the media or individuals say. A traditional Labour party word used to ensure they stay out of power for a generation, the betrayal idea is powerful and always self-defeating. 4/
Equally a democratic society must be allowed to change its mind. When and how this is done is open to question. As a Parliamentary democracy that is probably a start. Changing path is not betrayal. Otherwise why bother with elections? 5/
Of course avoiding betrayal myths requires honesty and maturity from leaders. This is in short supply in the UK. Chequers was clearly nonsense. Not once has the UK Government honestly presented the real choice of a border or an EEA style close relationship with the EU 6/
It isn't just the Government. Few politicians of either tribe support the only realistic options - FTA+border, EEA, or Remain. Everybody wants cake. Often creative, especially the border drones, still cake. 7/
No deal in March cannot be a realistic option for a responsible Government. The level of shock and adjustment for businesses, individuals, and officials would be overwhelming. In 5 years time perhaps. Not in 9 months. 8/
Politicians and media should be focusing a lot more on the businesses and individuals most affected by the uncertainty. Citing 'project fear' to close discussion is unhealthy. Only a handful of diehard communists should ever say "F business" 9/
You cannot blame the EU for any of this. Faced with a negotiating partner that possibly knowingly only propose unrealistic options what are the EU supposed to do? True, they have been insensitive on Northern Ireland. But otherwise entirety predictable. 10/
Solution? Finally pick a realistic option. Or extend the time frame. A responsible Government would be debating these rather than putting forward obvious nonsense that leaves a vacuum for the extremes 11/
Reason for hope. No deal is so disruptive the UK Government is likely to concede. But this is a very dangerous moment, how will it do so - if badly the betrayal myth could be strengthened - dangerously. 12/
Other reasons for hope. Some pragmatic voices starting to speak up (but not nearly enough). It isn't too late. There is probably a silent pragmatic majority. But long term damage has been done, and we need a change of direction to avoid more 13/ end
