Thread by @themarketswork

1) Papadopoulos, Mifsud & Manafort Coincidences

A lengthy post with many related timelines. And maybe a few surprises.
themarketswork.com/2018/08/10/pap…

2) On September 19, 2017, CNN reported that Paul Manafort had been under Title I FISA surveillance since 2014.
cnn.com/2017/09/18/pol…

3) The FISA Warrant on Manafort, which had been active since 2014, was NOT renewed sometime in 2016.

But a new FISA Warrant was obtained – probably in the fall of 2016.

4) Some clues to the expiration and restart of the FISA Warrants are provided:

"The government snooping continued into early this year [2016], including a period when Manafort was known to talk to President Donald Trump."

5) FISA Surveillance on Manafort was no longer active by late May 2016:

As Manafort took the reins as Trump campaign chairman in May, the FBI surveillance technicians were no longer listening.

6) "The FBI wasn't listening in June 2016, the sources said, when Donald Trump Jr. led a meeting that included Manafort, then campaign chairman, and Jared Kushner with a Russian lawyer who had promised negative information on Hillary Clinton."

7) Surveillance on Manafort was then re-started:

The FBI then restarted the surveillance after obtaining a new FISA warrant that extended at least into early this year [2017].

It is unclear when the new warrant started. The FBI interest deepened last fall [2016].

8) Manafort first reached out to the Trump Campaign on February 29, 2016.

On March 28, 2016 Manafort was hired by the Trump Campaign.
On May 19, 2016, Manafort became Trump’s campaign chairman.
On August 19, 2016, Manafort resigned from the Trump Campaign.

9) Surveillance continued after the Trump Campaign responded to Manafort’s February 28, 2016 offer and ended before Manafort officially joined the Trump Campaign on March 28, 2016.

It appears likely that a new FISA Warrant (possibly NSL) became active sometime in October 2016.

10) Although most of the article refers to the FBI, there's one other Agency that’s referenced:

The CIA also had developed information, including from human intelligence sources.

Which brings us to George Papadopoulos.
themarketswork.com/2018/05/25/why…

11) Initially, I viewed Papadopoulos as nothing more than a pawn - an easy target for Obama’s Intelligence Agencies.

But as new information and a continuation of ever-increasing coincidences came forth, I began to reassess that position.

12) There are a number of things that bother me about Papadopoulos’ story. Not the least of which is this.

Papadopoulos continuously pushed for meetings between Trump Campaign officials and Russian contacts:

13) The persistence of Papadopoulos has always bothered me.

At some point your efforts become counterproductive. How many times do you have to be told “no”.

Papadopoulos was unsuccessful in establishing any meetings between the Trump Campaign and Russian Officials.

14) Papadopoulos met with Mifsud multiple times in the first half of 2016.

Papadopoulos and Mifsud both worked at the London Centre of International Law Practice (LCILP).

Mifsud appears to have joined LCILP ~11/15.

Papadopoulos reportedly joined LCILP sometime in late Feb '16.

15) However, some reports indicate Papadopoulos joined in LCILP in Nov/Dec 2015:

In 2015, Papadopoulos joined the London Center of International Law Practice as the director of the Center for International Energy and Natural Resources Law and Security.
ballotpedia.org/George_Papadop…

16) Details on LCILP are hazy:

WAPO “buzzed the door on several occasions during business hours” but no one answered. Quartz Media had a little more luck, and discovered that LCILP’s office “amounted to four people working in an undecorated backroom”.
medium.com/@Brian_Whit/th…

17) Mifsud and Papadopoulos reportedly never crossed paths until March 14, 2016…in Italy.

18) With one exception, May 13, 2016 marks the last communication between Papadopoulos and Mifsud:

October 1 2016 – Papadopoulos sends Mifsud a private Facebook message with a link to an article from Interfax.com, a Russian news website.

19) This contact is only disclosed in the FBI’s July 28, 2017 Affidavit, signed by FBI Agent Robert Gibbs.

Notably, it is not disclosed in the October 5, 2017 Statement of the Offense signed by Robert Mueller.
themarketswork.com/2018/06/07/mis…

20) Both Papadopoulos and Mifsud were interviewed by the FBI.

Papadopoulos was ultimately charged.
Mifsud was never charged.

I suspect ties between Mifsud & British and/or Western Intelligence will ultimately come forth.

21) Mifsud has known Papadopoulos’ now-wife, Simona Mangiante, for years. The story reads a bit like a spy novel:

She was introduced to Mifsud in about 2012 by Gianni Pittella, a well-known Italian MEP.
theguardian.com/us-news/2018/j…

22) There appears to be some correlation between Papadopoulos and significant events surrounding Manafort’s involvement with the Trump Campaign.

Also correlated are Papadopoulos’ contacts with Mifsud during some of these periods.

23) Manafort’s initial contact with the Trump Campaign:

24) Manafort’s hiring by the Trump Campaign:

25) Manafort’s promotion to Campaign Chairman:

26) Manafort’s resignation from the Trump Campaign:

27) Likely restart of FISA Warrant/Surveillance on Manafort:

28) The Papadopoulos/Alexander Downer meeting has been portrayed as a chance encounter in a bar. That does not appear to be the case.

Papadopoulos was introduced to Downer through a chain of two intermediaries.
dailycaller.com/2018/04/22/geo…

29) Another individual happened to be in London at exactly the same time.

The FBI’s Head of Counterintelligence Bill Priestap.

The purpose of Priestap’s visit remains unknown.

https://twitter.com/JohnWHuber/status/999971153811857408

30) Events surrounding the Papadopoulos/Downer meeting:

31) Downer has direct ties to UK Intelligence firm Hakluyt where he served on the Advisory Board from 2008-2014.

Hakluyt’s top officials come from MI6. Several Board Members come from GCHQ – the UK’s NSA.
themarketswork.com/2018/05/09/dea…

32) Downer’s version of the meeting noted that Papadopoulos told Downer the “Russians might use material that they have on Hillary Clinton in the lead-up to the election”.

Despite initial reporting to the contrary, Clinton emails were never mentioned.
news.com.au/world/north-am…

33) Neither the July 28, 2017 Affidavit signed by FBI Agent Robert M. Gibbs nor the October 5, 2017 Statement of the Offense signed by Robert Mueller make mention of the May 10, 2016 Downer meeting.

34) The first memo in the Steele Dossier contains the following:

A dossier of compromising information on Hillary Clinton has been collated by the Russian Intelligence Services over many years and mainly compromises bugged conversations she had on various visits to Russia.

35) The June 20 2016 Steele Dossier Memo appears to contain exactly the same type of information Papadopoulos relayed to Alexander Downer…

36) The Papadopoulos Arrest:

Papadopoulos was interviewed by the FBI on January 27, 2017 leading to his eventual indictment for lying to FBI.

Papadopoulos was arrested by the FBI on July 27, 2017:

37) IG Horowitz told Mueller & Rosenstein of the Strzok/Page texts on 7-27-17.

Papadopoulos was arrested on 7-27-17 at Dulles airport at 7pm.

He flew in from Munich, Germany.

Papadopoulos' cooperation agreement was reached the next morning – and with no attorney present.

38) Two important events are missing from legal documents (Mueller Version & Gibbs Version) in the Papadopoulos Case:

The May 10, 2016 Alexander Downing meeting with Papadopoulos (see above).

The ~July 23-25 2016 Papadopoulos/Sergei Millian meeting.

39) Papadopoulos set up a meeting with Sergei Millian.

On July 22, 2016, Papadopoulos asked his Mifsud contact, Ivan Timofeev, if he knew anything about Millian.

That same day, Australia supposedly told the FBI of Papadopoulos’ comments to Downer from May 10, 2016.

40) Rosenstein issued his revised “Scope of Investigation & Definition of Authority” Memo to Mueller on August 2, 2017 – just five days after Papadopoulos’ sealed court hearing.

41) No official intelligence was used in opening the FBI’s Counterintelligence Investigation.

Papadopoulos' comments to Downer were the stated reason.

42) It's been reported the FBI was twice denied FISA Warrants in June/July '16.

The FBI’s inability to obtain a FISA Warrant in June/July 2016 would explain why the FBI opened its July 2016 Counterintelligence Investigation with no official evidence.
bbc.com/news/world-us-…

43) Which raises another question. Why is there no mention of Papadopoulos in the Steele Dossier.

Particularly when this document was so vital to obtaining the October 21, 2016 FISA Warrant on Carter Page.
themarketswork.com/2018/05/25/why…

44) The FBI had the 6/20 Steele Memo in their possession in early July 2016.

FBI Agent Mike Gaeta read it on 7-5-16.

The information in the June 20, 2016 Steele Memo was essentially no different than what was discussed by Papadopoulos and Downer on May 10, 2016.

45) The FBI's version:

On July 22, 2016, the FBI is informed that Papadopoulos told Downer “the Russians might use material that they have on Hillary Clinton in the lead-up to the election which may be damaging".

7-22-16 is the first time Papadopoulos lands on FBI’s radar.

46) On July 31, 2016 - just over a week later - the FBI opens a massive Counterintelligence Investigation into an opposing presidential candidate’s campaign based solely on this single conversation. (FBI Version)

47) A conversation that differed little from details contained in the Steele Memo the FBI ALREADY had in their possession.

Carter Page ultimately solved the FBI’s problem.

But Papadopoulos, wittingly or not, seemingly led the FBI on a long and winding path to that solution.
End