Energy transition is ripping in UK 🇬🇧 and the speed is pretty amazing. This week, the world's largest offshore wind farm opened off the NW coast. Though, as the world's offshore wind capital it almost feels ho-hum. theguardian.com/environment/20…
2/What especially interests me is the situation developing in the UK car market, where growth is swinging harder, much harder than in other domains, to EV. I'm going to address this in next week's newsletter: goo.gl/P3B6Ee
3/But back to the big picture, as you probably know, the nation that was first to really leverage coal has now seen coal almost entirely disappear. UK coal use peaked around 1956, and is now nearly gone. 
4/ Yeah, I've got some pre 1965 BP data sets that show energy on a global level, but, none that get behind there for the UK. 🇬🇧 If you'd like a long timeline take on Coal in the UK, see this great post from @CarbonBrief goo.gl/j3X8JC
@CarbonBrief 5/ While coal has been in superdecline, oil use is also falling though more gently--typical of oil's ability to create a stubborn dependency. That said, UK oil use peaked in 1973.
6/ You will start to notice in these charts, however, that despite these signatures of long decline, the UK has seen energy transition speed up in the last decade. A function of momentum, and the learning rate. I mean, look at this cliff dive in emissions.
7/ Let me pause here and editorialize for a moment. The clean, green land that New Zealanders speak of often is coming to the UK. And as people know, my family is half 🇳🇿 so I get to say this: Kiwis, your emissions are steadily *rising* this past decade. The chart is ugly.
8/ So now, the UK is building heaps of wind, and some solar, and diverting alot of new transport growth towards electrics: cars, cabs, buses. How much wind and solar? I mean, it's insane. The UK is chasing California: already reaching 18% of electricity!
9/ That very pronounced leap you see in the UK electricity system, as the wind and solar share advanced past 2-3%, is something I'm seeing alot across this space, whether EVs or renewables, in many domains. After 5% seems to be a take-off point.
10/ Let's take another look at how combined wind and solar advance, this time by years. I put this chart in my Oil Fall series, because I wanted to illustrate the slog from levels, starting below 2%, to the take off point.
11/Again, look at what happens in both the UK and California (admittedly smaller domains) once wind and solar reach the 5% share level. The averaging of large national domains, US, EU, and China, is a useful comparison--yes, it took longer, but now all those domains are above 5%!
12/ Now we come to the main task ahead, in all of these domains: transportation. (Also, I see google url shortener doesn't like my previous link for my newsletter).I'm going to address this next week, sign up here: us7.campaign-archive.com/home/?u=0860f6…
13/ What you're seeing in the UK 🇬🇧 right now is starting to happen in the US and China and California: ICE sales are falling and EV sales are rising. See the latest data from SMMT smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/c…
14/ In year-to-date 2018, UK ICE sales (petrol and diesel) are down -5.6%, while Alternative Fuel Vehicles (AFV) are up 27.4%. That growth rate will very likely edge towards, or above, 30% by the time all sales are complete, at year end.
15/ Over the past month, there've been a few pieces claiming that coal, on a global level, is resilient or even making a comeback. Yeah no, it's not. Global coal use peaked 5 years ago. Making claims about the tiny oscillations in the ensuing plateau is unwise. Look at the UK.
16/ More important: as EV sales start to approach 5% of annual sales in a bunch of domains, while ICE declines and the global auto market more generally is softening, you can see similar claims that it will all go in reverse or ICE growth will roar back. EVs are saying: nope.
17/ So the UK has literally killed coal, and it's oil consumption has been in decline since 1973, and its emissions are falling off a cliff. It's building massive (not hyperbole) new volumes of wind and solar and EVs sales are roaring while ICE sales growth falls pretty hard.
18/ This is not a difficult one to call. The UK 🇬🇧 will never see coal or oil return to growth. Never. It's oil consumption is going to start falling at a faster rate. And all of this describes a future that will distribute itself across all domains. UK: I'm gobsmacked! /fin
