Thread by @sbmintelligence

Nigeria’s parliament made amendments to electoral law that fail to separate the meat from the bones, a scenario which also applies to our crumbling infrastructure.

Meanwhile, conspiracy theorists are poised to have a field day following a dissident’s curious resurrection.

The statement of intent by @NGRSenate in the proposed #ElectoralAct amendment is clear - #Nigeria must build on the incremental improvements from #elections2015, a key representation of which is the card reader.

It behoves of @inecnigeria to now take a real look at the failure points from #elections2015 in the use of these devices, map potential failure points, and mitigate them.

What must not be done is for @inecnigeria to discard card readers because of previous challenges.

On campaign spending, we think @NGRSenate has not set realistic benchmarks, as legitimate electoral costs, even cursorily calculated, outstrip what they have proposed.

We must not make laws that are set up to be broken from day one.

Rather than focus on setting limits, @NGRSenate should strengthen campaign finance rules and monitoring of compliance with penalties for violating them, especially in the area of mobilisation of state resources to run political campaigns.

The reappearance of @nnamdikanu1 has provoked a flurry of speculation and conspiracy theorising.

The one strand common to most of the conjecture and theories that have been floated is that his “return” was neither accidental nor coincidental.

The initial mystery surrounding @nnamdikanu1’s disappearance after @HQNigerianArmy laid siege to his house in 2017 has been replaced by the mystery of why he has resurfaced at this time.

Among the leading theories is the idea that @nnamdikanu1 has re-emerged ahead of #NigeriaDecides2019 because he is being unleashed to play a politically relevant role.

Purveyors of this view believe that @AsoRock has been holding @nnamdikanu1 in custody all along and that he has been released from custody to help serve its re-election bid.

There is no way of verifying this theory, however, a useful question is that of who benefits from @nnamdikanu1’s reappearance and his brand of politics.

Kanu’s call for a boycott of #NigeriaDecides2019 by #IPOB members will undeniably hurt @OfficialPDPNig by defusing the excitement and the anticipated electoral bump in the south-east, and among Igbos, that @PeterGregoryObi brings to the @atiku ticket.

Should this be the case, there is no doubt that @OfficialAPCNg and @MBuhari will feel that their chances of victory next year have been enhanced.

The #NIIMP report about infrastructure states that #Nigeria needs $25 billion investment in infrastructure yearly, an amount which is equivalent to the country’s entire annual budget – which is itself funded in most part by debt.

Borrowing to spend on infrastructure is normal for countries, but the interest rate and revenue generation potential determines the sustainability of that borrowing.

At present, @AsoRock is borrowing at about 15% locally, which is unsustainable in any jurisdiction.

#Nigeria’s revenue generation problems have been well documented.

Only recently @IMFNews called for an urgent review of #Nigeria’s tax policies, with emphasis on widening the tax base, increasing the tax on the richest 3%, and increasing compliance on VAT.

@AsoRock has to, as a matter of urgency, divest away from spending on massive infrastructure projects (which it cannot afford to), and rather drive investment into them.

In #Cameroun, a favourable electoral outcome for @PR_Paul_BIYA was a forgone conclusion once the Constitutional Council indeterminately delayed the release of the results.

With continued discontent in the 2 Anglophone regions, voter turnout was as low as 5%, according to @CrisisGroup (official figures put the number at 16%), @PR_Paul_BIYA’s election is almost certain to consign #Cameroun to 7 more years of economic stagnation and runaway cronyism.

@PR_Paul_BIYA’s first act since the announcement was to reward the council, which dismissed 18 opposition petitions against the running of #Etoudi2018, by inviting bids for the construction of a $475,000 mansion in an upmarket neighbourhood of Yaoundé for its president.

Understanding how #Cameroun’s political, economic and social structures remain under @PR_Paul_BIYA’s vice grip is critical to making sense of where the country heads from here.